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June 20, 2013



as of today, with one USD fetching 1.92 TL, the nominal (or real) Turkish GDP measured in US dollars has shrunk about 7% compared to just 5 weeks ago.


Turkish economy...

Mert Kuntsal

Thanks for the post, it is helpful. However, I would like you to elaborate more on the definition "emerging and developing economies" given in the graph.

1) Who are these economies? How many countries have been taken into account? How were the values averaged? (Because different currencies are used in every country)
2) How was the population change in these countries? How is Turkey's real GDP per capita is doing compared to these countries? (Because Turkey's population hasn't changed much)

With these data, we can much better understand Turkey's position in the global economy. Any further input is appreciated Mr. Rodrik.


1/ what has been fueling the growth?
2/ is it sustainable?
3/ what does it mean to an avg person on the street?


I am no expert on these matters such as yourself. But I was under the impression that the best indicator of economic growth is based on comparative per person GDP figures in USD, normalized through PPP (purchasing power parity). That is in fact the method used by the IMF, the World Bank and OECD when they publish comparative growth figures for countries. Also, please correct me if I am wrong, but using these figures it can be asserted that the average income per person in Turkey has grown to levels of 2.5-3 times of the 2002 figures. Would you dispute that?

Saliha Kaya

Thank you Dani,for this discussion.It's necessary for the people of Turkey to view the facts...

Cemil Turun

Dear Prof. Rodrik, could you please elaborate more on your last sentence? What was the main cause of the change in domestic relative prices?

'Turkish real appreciation has little relation to the changes in its terms of trade, and seems to be driven largely by changes in domestic relative prices (nontradables versus tradables.)'



I not an expert on Turkey's economy... However, the 2013 IMF WEO database does provide some data for growth from 2002 to 2012.

GDP growth at constant prices - 62.57%
Per-capita GDP growth an constant prices - 43.3%
PPP GDP growth - 110.5%
Per-capita PPP growth - 85.56%

The PPP numbers are much higher. However, they are stated in terms of current dollars, not constant dollars.

From 2002 to 2012 the GDP deflator for the U.S. rose 25.154%. If you deflate the PPP numbers for Turkey using the U.S. GDP deflator you get numbers very close to the constant national currency (Lira) numbers for Turkey.

Tufan Kurt

I did a more extensive research about 24 developing economies(including Turkey) over 18 criteria to compare AKP's rule(2003-11) to previous coalitions period(1993-2002)using Worldbank data. It looks like on 10 of the criteria Coalition (1993-2002) performed better among developing economies vs AKP's 8. You can see details on my facebook page.And just to be clear i started to post it 3 days before this post and it is in Turkish if anyone is interested i ll be willing to help

Ertan Apaydin

You should analyze emerging economies exclude China.


Thanks for the post. Would it be possible for you to elaborate on the role legal reforms have played in encouraging foreign investment in Turkey.



there is some countries have a growth in economics




China is an exceptional case, a comparison to emerging economies excluding China would make more sense. But still, a mere comparison to other developing economies should not be the only criteria to evaluate AKP's economic performance unless you wanna end up saying previous government has performed better although they have led Turkey into worst financial crisis in decades.


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Thank you Dani,for this discussion.It's necessary for the people of Turkey to view the facts...

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Firstly what is the purpose of this article specifically about Turkey?? (Unless you do it for all other countries,then can you please give us the address or the link of your other country studies so we can refer to them for our comparative learning). By the way, you were writing political articles agains the current government of Turkey, maybe as bitter as a domestic opposition party why is that?? ....can it be due to your personal relation to a Turkish Army ex-General who was being trialled for plotting against the Government (this General is the father of your wife, right?). Anyway, despite your efforts to prove that Turkey's government was not that successful in the last decade, in fact you yourself proved with your worst estimate that 'the real GDP rose by 64%' :) you are contradicting with yourself! What is the conclusion of this article?? 'The Turkish Government did well in the last decade but not perfect'?? [P.s. turkey real GDP 2002: $230bn vs GDP 2013: $820bn]


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