Experts, knowledge and advocacy

This is so absolutely brilliant and important:

“One thing that experts know, and that non-experts do not, is that they know less than non-experts think they do.”

It comes from Kaushik Basu, currently chief economist at the World Bank and one of the world’s most thoughtful expert-economists.

Economists would be so much more honest (with themselves and the world) if they acted accordingly – letting their audience know that their results and prescriptions come with a large margin of uncertainty.  Public intellectuals would do so much less damage if they did likewise.  And if experts are not aware of the limits of their knowledge – well, they do not deserve to be called experts or intellectuals.

The real point, though, is that the other side – journalists, politicians, the general public -- always has a tendency to attribute greater authority and precision to what the experts say than the experts should really feel comfortable with.  That is what calls for compensating action on the part of the experts.  

So if you are an expert hang this gem from Basu prominently on your wall.  And next time you talk to a journalist, advise a politician, or take to the stage in a public event, repeat it to yourself beforehand a few times.

 

Comments

[Sanderwagner]

A further problem is that there might be a bad selection of experts into "pundit-experts", the type that the public listens to and calls up for advice. Unfortunately the more secure you act about your prescriptions and views and the smaller your perceived margin of error is, the more of an impression you are likely to leave on public discourse. After all you are the one that does seem to have a (maybe even THE) workable solution to our problems. Thus experts that either delude themselves via overconfidence in their ideas or those that delude the public by overselling their confidence (i suspect more of the former and less of the latter) are much more likely to become public intellectuals and influence policy. I am not sure this theory is true, but it strikes me as rather plausible :)

[Ankar Alemi]

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[Any Any]

Economists could be so much extra sincere .Public intellectuals would do a lot much less damage if they did likewise. take to the stage within a public occasion, repeat it to oneself beforehand some instances.
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[andreazig]

the experts need to share their knowledge. but they have to responsible about what they share, what they advising. a lot of people follow their advise, government, so at least the expert have to take some responsibility if the advise gone bad

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[m robert]

This world have lots of experts. The thing is, they aren't the ones that make decision, it's politician! You can count how many politician who actually works for better tomorrow, not for their own interest while sacrificing people.

[eri alaspari]

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