Is Chinese mercantilism good or bad for poor nations?

China’s trade balance is on course for another bumper surplus this year.  Meanwhile, concern about the health of the US recovery continues to mount. Both developments suggest that China will be under renewed pressure to nudge its currency sharply upward. The conflict with the US may well come to a head during Congressional hearings on the renminbi to be held in September, where many voices will urge the Obama administration to threaten punitive measures if China does not act.

In all this discussion, the renminbi is viewed largely as a US-China issue, and the interests of poor countries get scarcely a hearing, even in multilateral fora. Yet a noticeable rise in the renminbi’s value may have significant implications for developing countries. Whether they stand to gain or lose from a renminbi revaluation, however, is hotly contested.

On the one side is the argument (made most prominently by Arvind Subramanian) that developing countries suffer greatly from China’s policy of undervaluing its currency, which makes it more difficult for them to compete with Chinese goods in world markets, retarding their industrialization, and setting back their growth.

On the other side is the argument (made by Helmut Reisen and his colleagues) that developing countries, and especially the poorest among them, would be hurt if the renminbi were to rise sharply. Their reasoning is that currency appreciation would almost certainly slow China’s growth, and that anything that does that must be bad news for other poor countries as well.

Which is it? 

Find out here.

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That was an interesting essay over at Project Syndicate. I have one question:

-"Instead, too many developing countries have allowed their currencies to become overvalued, relying on booming commodity demand or financial inflows."-

What do you think are the reasons for this? Short-term political stability from the money and jobs from focusing on resource growth? The need to walk a tight-line between using currency to make their economies competitive, and avoiding driving off potential international investors worried about the de-valuing of their investments?

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the arguement is quite interesting and this has been going on for years together whether chinese need to revalue their yuan.logically they need to becoz america or west alone cant shoulder the consumption which is needed for economic growth.helmut reisen arguement would have won had china consumed more than what it does now i dont think it is reflected in the exchange reserve or in its trade surplus.only benefecieries of chinese boom have been rich commodity producers of australia and brasil.no poor country has taken part in this boom.if world has to get back to an economic growth it needs china for that it needs to revalue its yuan to make imports attractive and import more of american and european goods so that more jobs are created there which will provide an even keel to the global prosperity.

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Below you find the link to the OECD Development Centre Working Paper # 292.
Dani's argument about low-quality growth triggered by China's demand has merits, but had poor countries the choice in view of the integration of 2 bn people into the market economy since the late 1980s?
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I do see structural transformation as essential to long term development but idn't there still a way up and out through agricultural/commodity goods--riding along the RMB wave (for the time being)?

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