The most telling chart I have seen in a long time

The Inter-American Development Bank’s new study, The Age of Productivity is a trove of neat information on productivity performance in Latin America.  My favorite nugget is this one:

Ignore the intermediate period of debt crisis (1975-90) and focus on the differences between the periods of import-substitution (IS, 1950-1975) and Washington Consensus (WC, 1990-2005).  What do we see?

1. Labor productivity under IS grew at a rate that is double the rate under WC.
2. The rate of labor productivity growth within sectors (the component identified as “within” in the chart) was comparable under the two policy regimes.
3. The worse overall performance under WC is accounted entirely by the fact that there was much less desirable structural change -- labor moving from low to high-productivity activities -- under WC than under IS.

We already knew 1, and I have long suspected points 2 and 3 to be true as well.  But I had never seen the facts laid out so clearly.

Here is what seems to have happened:

For all its faults, IS promoted rapid structural change.  Labor moved from agriculture to industry, and within industry from lower-productivity activities to higher-productivity ones.  So much for the inherent inefficiency of IS policies!

Under WC, firms and industries were able to accomplish a comparable rate of productivity growth, but they did so by shedding (rather than hiring) labor.  The displaced labor went not to higher-productivity activities, but to less productive lines of work such as informality and various services.  In other words, the WC ended up promoting the wrong kind of structural change.

This account reinforces the centrality of structural change in driving rapid economic growth. It should also cause us to be wary of productivity studies that focus on what is happening within manufacturing alone.  After all, productivity within manufacturing can be stellar, but if manufacturing or other high productivity sectors as a whole are rapidly shedding labor, economy-wide productivity performance will be disappointing. 

Arthur Lewis lives.

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[Left Outside]

Interesting.

Although I'm broadly in agreement I guess I'd like your take on an alternative hypothesis.

Perhaps it was just easier to improve productivity in the immediate post war era than it is now, and this simply coincided with the IS policies. For example, medicine advanced leaps and bounds up until the 1970s, we had dialysis and cheamotherapy and so on by that point, since then it hasn't improved as quickly. This is more down to a slow down in technological development than a change in economic regime.

The argument is made well here by Scott Sumner.

I hope you can let me know what you think.

[David Kay]

Interesting argument, but I don't think it is comparable to the experience in sub-Saharan Africa where ISI policies misplaced focus on industry when it probably should have been focused on agriculture. Any thoughts? Thanks.

[Leonardo]

I think you meant, at the end of point 3, "from high to low productivity sectors"

[Francisco]

In that case, what was wrong during WC was the lack of a social security/retraining network that could retrain workers.

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[MarceloC]

I think that all the structural change in the WC period in Latin America was needed to reallocate all the malinvestment made during the previous decades (IS / inflation / centrally directed economy/ etc...). Structural Change is not always "good" at first, its like a hanghover period befor the economy could grow on sounder bases

[Ben]

If productivity growth was faster under ISI, why is it that every single piece of firm-level evidence shows that tariff rates are inversely related to TFP and productivity growth? I'd love to hear you comment on the firm-level "openness and growth" literature from Pavcnik onwards, and how it sits with your views on trade and industrial policy...

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But didn't the external borrowing that helped finance IS policies contribute to the debt crisis and the lost decade of growth?

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So, does this implly the U.S. should try to get its manufacturing base back from China?

[lark]

I hate to say it but I see this analysis applying to IT in the USA. The way outsourcing (which I'm associating with WC) has impacted IT is that the lower rungs of the profession have disappeared in this country. But where have those people gone, who were trained for IT but could not get jobs? They go into retail, real estate, teaching. All areas with lower / slower productivity and productivity growth.

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A few observations:
Note that even under IS, the rate of growth is still much closer to the "Hindu rate of growth" (3%) than to the rates we've seen in China and India in recent decades.
Also, if shifts to informality are characteristic of the WC era, I think this is ammunition for the argument that (part of) the problem is that there's been too little of the reduction of regulatory and fiscal burdens that are part of the WC policy prescriptions.
And most importantly, productivity increases from intersectoral shifts can't go on forever. Once everyone's moved out of agriculture, that's not an option any more. (Besides, how can we know that IS policies are the most effective at producing intersectoral shifts? I would think export promotion policies would be more effective than import substitution.)
That being said, intrasectoral productivity rises should be growing if all is going well. And that didn't happen in the WC era.

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I already browsed through the book, and I'm very glad to see that the remarks Rodrik makes in the post refer to the only chapter that does NOT rely on TFP estimates (Chapter 3). That's a very good thing I think for the robustness of the chapter's conclusions.

But oddly enough, the authors of the book make the following remark in Box 3.1: "Ideally, TFP would be the measure of productivity, following the overall direction of this book. However, given the difficulty in finding data on human and physical capital at the sector level, the measure of productivity used throughout this chapter refers to labor productivity".

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