Europe’s fate depends on…

Germany.

Financial meltdown has been averted in Europe – for now. But the future of the European Union and the fate of the eurozone still hang in the balance. If Europe doesn’t find a way to reactivate the continent’s economy soon, it will be doomed to years of gloom and endless mutual recrimination about “who sabotaged the European project.”

European growth is constrained by debt problems and continued concerns about the solvency of Greece and other highly indebted EU members. As the private sector deleverages and attempts to rebuild its balance sheets, consumption and investment demand have collapsed, bringing output down with them. European leaders have so far offered no solution to the growth conundrum other than belt tightening.

The reasoning seems to be that growth requires market confidence, which in turn requires fiscal retrenchment. As Angela Merkel puts it, “growth can’t come at the price of high state budget deficits.” 

But trying to redress budget deficits in the midst of a collapse in domestic demand makes problems worse, not better. A shrinking economy makes private and public debt look less sustainable, which does nothing for market confidence.

So Europe needs a short-term growth strategy to supplement its financial-support package and its plans for fiscal consolidation. The greatest obstacle to implementing such a strategy is the EU’s largest economy and its putative leader: Germany.

If Germany wants the rest of Europe to swallow the bitter pill of fiscal retrenchment, it will eventually have to recognize the implicit quid pro quo. It must pledge to boost domestic expenditures, reduce its external surplus, and accept an increase in the ECB’s inflation target. The sooner Germany fulfills its side of the bargain, the better it will be for everyone.

Read the full article here.

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Hi Dani,

I find it interesting that as a macro-economist you would fault Europe's reaction to the financial crises of correcting it's national balance sheets - in effect redressing public spending which was getting out of hand.

Here in Ireland by 2005, public sector wages had risen above private sector wages and as George W Bush said (at the famous event when he said ‘’Wall Street got drunk’’) when talking about his wife buying a property in Dallas, 'Honey, we've been on government pay now for 14 years, go slow.' http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKN2330503720080723

As the owner of a small business for the last 15 years here in Ireland, this adjustment was required. For example our minimum wage is higher than every state in the US despite being a little island on the edge of Europe – politicians always make the popular decisions when there is a surplus – it’s the nature of the beast. Greece caused a problem because it ignored the problems arising from the financial crises due to political ineptitude and will pay the consequence nationally similar to Iceland.

However Germany has taken the bitter pill and bailed out the smaller European countries with the amount they have had to guarantee to keep the Euro from attack – granted it was in their own interest keeping their biggest export market alive.

I would be more concerned with the US, instead of writing ‘’Who lost Europe’’ from where you are positioned, I would be more worried about US balance sheets, the US dollar and the amount of T-Bills that those pesky Chinese hold. The US, like Europe has been spending more than it is earning for a very long time and those pesky Chinese have been saving. The difference is that Europe has being distributing the surplus in the public sector whereas the US has been privatising the surplus to companies like Backwater, which will make it more difficult for the US to recover as a nation. Who has more room to adapt to adverse conditions. Also are you guys not still involved in an expensive war in Iraq and god knows where spreading democracy to the world (Loads of sarcasm from the Irish Paddy). What happens when the Chinese give up on the US dollar and trade their own currency or Gold like the Indians – where is the US economy when that happens.

Finally the forefather of the US’s current economy theory, Milton Friedman has named Heyek as one of his biggest influences. This is what Hayek had to say in his pretence of knowledge speech where he stated ‘’it seems to me that this failure of the economists to guide policy more successfully is closely connected with their propensity to imitate as closely as possible the procedures of the brilliantly successful physical sciences - an attempt which in our field may lead to outright error. It is an approach which has come to be described as the "scientistic" attitude - an attitude which is decidedly unscientific in the true sense of the word, since it involves a mechanical and uncritical application of habits of thought to fields different from those in which they have been formed (Von Hayek, F 1974).
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Firstly isn’t Japan the 2nd or 3rd strongest economy in the world and number two - the same IMF predicated in 2008 that Ireland would experience 3% economic growth until 2011 according to our Taoiseach on national telly tonight.

Regards

Kieran

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