What does Spain need to do to get out of the crisis?

I just came back from a conference in Spain, where this was the question on the table. I made the following points.

First, expenditure cuts are not going to do the job on their own, unless accompanied by policies targeted directly at improving competitiveness.

Second, "structural reforms" (which in the Spanish context means largely labor market reforms that aim to reduce firing costs and decentralize wage bargaining to the firm level) are not a substitute for competitiveness policies.  Insofar as they eat up political capital, they may even backfire in the short-run.

Third, there are no easy solutions to Spain's competitiveness conundrum.  But the least bad solution is to engineer an economy-wide reduction in nominal wages and the prices of services (utilities, etc.) through some kind of social compact.

Easy?  No.  Any other practical alternative to a prolonged period of recession and high unemployment? Probably not.

Spain could always exit the eurozone of course. But the acrimony and uncertainty that this will cause in the short-run does not make it a practical alternative to incomes policies in my view.

Here is my presentation at the conference.

Comments

[George J. Georganas]

Presumably public sector wages are responsible for the growth in non-tradeables and unit labour costs, since wages in the tradeables sector have been restrained by exposure to the world markets. So, cutting public sector pay should do the job that the world market has already done for private sector workers. Why would one propose that private-sector workers, already punished, should now have to suffer a second time ? is it not enough that they will face pressure from public-sector workers competing for their now supposedly more attractive wages ? is it not enough that they will face pressure from retreating domestic demand ?
Last, is anybody thinking about who will get run deficits, now that everybody tries to raise "competitiveness" ?
Martians maybe ?

[Sebastian]

Dani:
Thanks for sharing your presentation. I tend to agree with you. Spain does not seem to have a better policy at hand. However, one problem with deflation is debt deflation. I imagine the boom in the non-tradable sector occurred pari passu with a large increase in debt. Deflation can trigger massive defaults undoing the positive effects of restoring competitiveness.

On the other hand, though not under the control of Spain, if the Euro depreciates substantially, say to parity with the dollar, and if this helps to boost inflation somewhat, say to 4% in the Euro Zone for a few years, the necessity of nominal deflation can be substantially reduced.

It will also restore competitiveness within the Euro zone since one should expect wages to adjust in Germany and France but not in the periphery.
Finally, I would guess that with a large depreciation, Spain might end up exporting more, much more, outside the Euro Zone.

I think the Euro is in the hands of Germany. They need to realize that to save it, they need to depreciate it first.

Best,
Sebastian

[tord Steiro]

DIsclaimer: I did not read your presentation.

However, there are a few things I would like to point out:

1. research on the so-called nordic model suggest that centralized wage bargaining lead to improved competitiveness rather than the other way around. Of course, that is only valid if the export sector bargains first, and set the standard. but why not manage this when the Nordics do?

2. Political capital won't be eaten away if those at the op of the ladder starts the process by reducing their own salaries and other earnings like dividends.

3. This is also true for restoring a balance in public budgets. People are quite likely to accept a decrease in government services, if those at the top of the ladder - who usually don't use too much of the government services anyway - starts the process with increasing their own taxes.

A social contract that restores competitiveness and public balance sheets is fully possible. The Nordic countries found a suitable model for that in the aftemath of the great depression. The mediterraenens could do something similar this time.

[Kieran Boles]

Sorry to be off topic but I have tried to post this on blogs belonging to both Israeli and US papers and they are not interested.

So I will post it to you - a Turk in the US.

It regards the Israeli military attack on Sunday

‘Never Again’

To me as an Irishman that is the ethos of holocaust survivors who went through the horror of the Nazi’s. Having witnessed the stupidity of hatred in the North of Ireland and the easiness of humans from so called civilised / developed countries to systemise torture and killing in the name of freedom or status quo, it pains me that we continue not to learn from history.

A book called ‘Exodus’ told the story of a Zionist provocation against the British. In the wake of World War II, the British attempted to control the limits of Jewish immigration into the British controlled Palestine. The parallels to this incident are uncanny in that both evolved from Cyprus. In the Exodus story which, was published by an author named Leon Uris and later made into a film, the British were accused by Israelis of attempting to finish the work of the Nazis. In the film the British under extreme pressure allowed the shipment into Palestine. The Israelis, 60+ years later took the shipment out in international waters – a blatant act of piracy.

I have justified to myself accepting the wrong that is this blockade because being so far away from this wrong made it easy to forget / ignore.

I was at a trade fair in Baghdad in 1990 and saw a PLO’s stall which showed a video which had 2 Israeli solders bursting a Palestinian youths head like a melon and I was left thinking ‘’might is right’’.

But as I have aged I have come to the believe that a wrong is a wrong and despite all the evidence of previous acts against humanity, the numbness of unparalleled access to information makes one hope that the people paid to act as regulators will do the right thing.

What is the purpose of the UN, the WTO and the other G7 agencies if they do not react to an act of piracy by the Israeli government – yesterday they crossed the line.

I watched on Sky of Israeli demonstrations at the port that the flotilla was taken to after the attack. The coverage showed Arab Israeli women being abused by males draped in the Israeli flag and it reminded me of footage I have seen of Jews being abused by Nazi’s before they took power. The only difference was a uniform.

When do we humans start learning from history.

The Israeli deputy foreign minister Danny Ayalon charged that the mission (to sent aid) was simply an attempt to provoke Isralies.

Danny yes that was their mission but it did not give you the right to act like NIZI’S.

Danny your forefathers would be revolving in their graves.

Kieran

[BudaFriend]

(Re)creation of the corporatist state that can spread the pain of adjustment across the whole country seems the only alternative to doing nothing. However, a national corporatism requires some means of keeping the capital in Spain. Since most investors in the tradable sector are transnational and since the single market rules take precedence over national legislation, Spain has no means to prevent the capital from moving to Central Europe (which has lower wages as well as independent currencies).
National corporatism cannot fly in Europe. Isn' this just a logical consequence of your globalization trilemma?
If Spain wants to stay in the EU and EMU they can only muddle through the long period of unemployment.

[Marcelo]

I think that they must be very creative designing its policies. In this new global order there is no much place for reforms and adjustments a'la 90's, specially taking in account that Spain still have a strong presence in Latin America (large investments in communications, oil and financial services). Countries will not hesitate in order to protect its economies, citizens, and well being against the negative effects of such reforms. The new competitiveness policies must help us all to keep building this more globalized and humanized world, and to be capable to outline a new political economy.

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Given the share of non-tradables in the economy, why use ULC or CPI for the REER?

Regards, J.

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[Catalinacovecr]

I'd have to concur with the previous poster that a step in the right direction would be for a reduction in nominal wages along with an overall change in financial responsibility in the country.

Costa Rica Retirement

[Dale Jarvis]

Interesting perspective. I've written extensively on the subject with respect to how it affects Costa Rica real estate investors.

[CouponFinder]

Interesting how socialism caused economic problems are coming hone to roost in Europe. gotomeeting plan

[Account Deleted]

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[Account Deleted]

very nice

celikraf