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« How to square the U.S.-China circle | Main | How the financial crisis has killed the governance reform agenda »

May 18, 2009

Comments

Joel Hylen

I, for one, haven't blamed economists for causing the crisis . . . just for not understanding it.

It's clearly a political issue . . . (allowing no doc loans, allowing increased leverage, pushing interest rates too low, etc.)

Wesley McKain

That article (it was very good), makes one wonder whether the pervasive "financial deepening" of the U.S. economy that has occurred in the last two decades will soon be rolled back. Apart from the financial sector being extremely unpopular at the moment, the duration and strength of the distortions make one wonder if the financial sector is inherently 'unregulatable.'

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Der WestLB.

In einer persönlichen Erklärung begründete Hilgert seinen Rücktritt damit, dass er auf dem Weg zur Neuausrichtung der angeschlagenen Landesbank "nicht die erforderliche wirtschaftliche Unterstützung der maßgeblichen Eigentümer der Bank" finde. Die Landesbank verliert mitten in einem schwierigen Sanierungsprozess ihren Chef; Hilgert war bereits der dritte binnen zwei Jahren nach Thomas Fischer und Alexander Stuhlmann. Am Abend ernannte der Aufsichtsrat Hilgerts Stellvertreter Dietrich Voigtländer kommissarisch zum Konzernchef.

Die WestLB, drittgrößte deutsche Landesbank, will Geschäftsaktivitäten im Umfang von rund 80 Milliarden Euro auslagern. In der vergangenen Woche hatte die EU-Kommission die Bank verpflichtet, sich im Gegenzug zu den gewährten Staatshilfen von ganzen Geschäftsbereichen zu trennen und ihr Geschäftsvolumen somit zu halbieren. Die Konzentration auf Kernbereiche ("Projekt Omega") bezeichnete Hilgert als "einzigen, die künftige Existenz der Bank rechtzeitig und nachhaltig sichernden Weg".

Gegen die Absicherung dieses Modells gibt es aber massiven Widerstand von den Sparkassenverbänden als Mehrheitseigentümer der WestLB, die bisher nicht bereit sind, der Landesbank die notwendigen Garantien in einer Größenordnung von fünf Milliarden Euro zu gewähren.

Daran müssten sich die Sparkassenverbände gemäß ihres Eigentümer-Anteils mit mehr als 2,5 Milliarden Euro beteiligen. Hilgert soll sich in vertraulichen Gesprächen massiv über die Politik des Rheinischen und des Westfälischen Sparkassenverbandes beschwert haben, verlautete aus dem Umfeld der nordrhein-westfälischen Landesregierung, die mit 37 Prozent an der WestLB beteiligt ist.

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Bei dem in Deutschland zugelassenen Hansagold-Fonds der Hansa-Invest und dem DWS Plus Gold der Deutschen Bank haben Anleger maximal 30 Prozent physisches Gold im Depot, der Rest wird über Wertpapiere abgedeckt. Viele Sparer wollen jedoch 100 Prozent physische Deckung, etwa, weil ihnen Termingeschäfte mit Gold als zu unsicher erscheinen. Doch 100 Prozent Golddeckung gibt es nur bei ausländischen Produkten.

Der Trend zum Goldbarren im Wertpapiermantel ist jung, erst mit der Finanzkrise entdeckten Sparer den Reiz von tatsächlichem Besitz. Hintergrund sind grundsätzliche Zweifel an der Werthaltigkeit von Wertpapieren, sei es Aktien, Anleihen oder auch Papiergeld. Gold hat anders als Papier einen inneren Wert, das Edelmetall hat sich über die Jahrhunderte resistent gegen Inflation gezeigt.

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Für die ausländischen Gold-Fonds drohen Steuernachteile, obwohl sich die deutsche Finanzverwaltung mangels Masse bislang nicht zu der Problematik geäußert hat - noch nicht. "Das Investment wird eventuell wie eine geschlossene Fondsbeteiligung oder als Beteiligung an einer niedrig besteuerten Auslandsgesellschaft angesehen", heißt es unter Steuerexperten. Die innerhalb der Jahresfrist vom Fonds erzielten Veräußerungsgewinne müssten dann vom Anleger in beiden Fällen jährlich versteuert werden, was teurer kommt.

"Bei klassischen Investmentfonds blieben die ausgeschütteten oder thesaurierten Gewinne aus dem Verkauf von physischem Gold dagegen steuerfrei", sagt Weber. Ein Gewinn fiele also erst beim Anteilsverkauf an. Würden die ausländischen Investments hingegen als Fonds eingestuft, handelt es sich nur um so genannte schwarze Fonds, es sei denn sie veröffentlichten ihre Steuerdaten. Dann fällt zum Jahresende eine hohe Pauschalsteuer an.

Neben Fonds haben Sparer auch die Möglichkeit, über Zertifikate physisches Gold zu zeichnen. Es gibt das in Deutschland aufgelegte Xetra-Gold-Zertifikat, aber auch ausländische Investments wie ETFS Physical Gold und Gold Bullion Securities. "Eigentlich sind diese Anlagen Wertpapiere, doch die Emittenten werben damit, dass die Investments einen Lieferanspruch von Gold begründen", sagt Weber. Dann würde nicht die Abgeltungsteuer in Höhe von 25 Prozent, sondern die einjährige Spekulationsfrist gelten. Nach einem Jahr wären die Erträge steuerfrei, so die Argumentation der Emittenten.

"Ob die Finanzbehörden das auch so sehen oder nicht doch von einem Wertpapierinvestment ausgehen werden, ist noch nicht geklärt", sagt Weber. Steuerlich sicherer sei der direkte Kauf einer Münze oder eines Barrens ohne Umweg über das Wertpapier. "Allerdings fallen hier hohe Gebühren an, und diese Anlageform ist sehr unflexibel." Diese Aspekte müsse man gegeneinander abwägen.

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Just wanted to say a big huge CONGRATS on the book! I look forward to reading it, and I love your blog and your column. Can't wait for the new blog

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Alan Greenspan has a degree in economics from Columbia.

He's always been a huge fan of Keynes.

You do the math.

Bernanke -- degree in economics.

Blinder -- degree in economics.

etc.

Youri Kemp

Hi Prof. Rodrik,

I think the regulators fell down on the job. If he wa snot allowed to do and get away with what he had done, then we would not have had this issue now would we?

LOL...

Best,

Youri

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Ils sont donc trois prétendants officiels pour Opel. L'italien Fiat, l'équipementier canadien Magna et l'investisseur financier américain Ripplewood ont déposé une offre de reprise, mercredi 20 mai, date butoir fixée par Berlin. Le temps presse pour le constructeur allemand. Sa maison mère, l'américain General Motors (GM), risque de déposer le bilan d'ici au 1er juin. Le constructeur, très mal en point depuis plusieurs mois, veut céder au plus vite une participation majoritaire dans sa filiale....

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Beim Prozess gegen die birmanische Friedensnobelpreisträgerin Aung San Suu Kyi hat die Militärjunta überraschend ausländische Diplomaten zugelassen. Mehr als zwei Dutzend verfolgten das Verfahren im Insein-Gefängnis in Rangun. "Sie ist gefasst, aufrecht und knistert vor Energie", sagte der britische Botschafter Mark Canning anschließend der BBC. Die Diplomaten waren abgesehen von einem UN-Gesandten die ersten Ausländer, die die 63-Jährige seit 2003 zu Gesicht bekamen. Sie steht seitdem unter Hausarrest und darf keinen Besuch empfangen.

Die Oppositionsführerin ist angeklagt, weil ein Amerikaner vor gut zwei Wochen in ihr Haus eindrang. Damit habe sie die Auflagen ihres Hausarrests verletzt, werfen die Behörden ihr vor. Juristen in aller Welt bezeichnen dies nach allen üblichen Rechtsstandards als völlig unhaltbar. Sie halten die Anklage für ein abgekartetes Spiel, um die Politikerin vor den geplanten Wahlen im kommenden Jahr aus dem Verkehr zu ziehen. Ihr Hausarrest wäre Ende Mai abgelaufen.

"Ende des Drehbuchs schon geschrieben"

So äußerte sich auch Canning: "Es war gut, dass wir dabei sein konnten, aber das ändert nichts an den Grundtatsachen", sagte er. "Ich fürchte, dies ist eine Geschichte, bei der das Ende des Drehbuchs schon geschrieben ist." Suu Kyi drohen fünf Jahre Haft. Ein Urteil wird nächste Woche erwartet.

Die Diplomaten waren etwa eine Stunde in dem Gerichtssaal. Vernommen wurde ein Polizist, der nach der Festnahme des Amerikaners das Haus von Suu Kyi durchsucht hatte, berichteten Reporter, die auch überraschend eingelassen worden waren. Fünf vertraten die Staatsmedien, fünf weitere, die mit Genehmigung der Behörden für ausländische Medien arbeiten, wurden ausgelost und ebenfalls zugelassen. Sie beschrieben Suu Kyi als entspannt und selbstsicher. Sie habe anschließend die Hände der mehr als 20 Diplomaten geschüttelt und kurz mit ihnen geplaudert. "Vielen Dank für Ihre Unterstützung", sagte die 63-Jährige. "Ich hoffe, ich treffe Sie eines Tages unter besseren Umständen wieder."

Suu Kyi sprach anschließend noch separat mit drei Botschaftern: dem Vertreter Singapurs, der dem diplomatischen Corps in Rangun als dienstältester Botschafter vorsteht, dem Vertreter Thailands, das zur Zeit den Vorsitz der Südostasiatischen Staatengemeinschaft ASEAN innehat, und dem Vertreter Russlands, das gegenwärtig dem UN- Sicherheitsrat vorsteht.

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Argentina - Argentina's president says her country's biggest airline has signed a contract to buy 20 planes from Brazilian jetmaker Embraer. President Cristina Fernandez says the aircraft will be the first new jets for Aerolineas Argentinas SA in 16 years. The airline was nationalized in December. She gave no other details in a televised speech, but the Telam state news agency said Thursday that Brazil's national development bank would loan Aerolineas $585 million to finance...

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Japan's central bank on Friday upgraded its assessment of the world's second-largest economy, taking a cautiously upbeat stance that recession may be easing.

The Bank of Japan's eight-member policy board voted unanimously to leave its overnight call rate at 0.1 percent, a move that was widely expected. The low rate is in place to encourage lending and the flow of capital, but there is little room to cut it further.

But the central bank modestly upgraded its economic assessment. It said the economy was still deteriorating, but exports and production are beginning to level out. Previous assessments said the economy had been deteriorating significantly.

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This is a glimmer of good news for big names in Japan's corporate ranks such as Sony and Toyota, for which sales abroad are a major source of profit. Such companies have booked huge losses, cut workers and shut down plants as they feel the effects of a global economy mired in recession.

Hope for an end to the current malaise has come from other areas as well. Earlier this week, government data showed Japan's economy shrank at a record 15.2 percent annual pace in the first quarter, the biggest drop since the country began compiling such numbers in 1955, but the numbers also raised hopes that the worst is over.

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Vaclav Klaus, the President of the Czech Republic, chairs the delegation of the European Union at the EU-Russia summit in Khabarovsk. The Russian-speaking politician conducted successful reforms to establish capitalism instead of socialism in his country. However, the European Union sees the Czech leader as a politician who impedes the process of the European integration. Klaus has never released any anti-Russian statements, despite the problem of the notorious US missile defense system.




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Klaus is considered the prime adversary of the European integration. His counterparts did not want him to chair the European Union six months ago. Vaclav Klaus refused to introduce the euro in his country. He was the only European politician, who welcomed the results of the Lisbon Treaty referendum in Ireland in 2008 (the EU Constitution thus remained unchanged).

In February, Klaus compared the European Union to the USSR, when he said that the EU had become a non-democratic structure that left no freedom of choice, similarly to communist regimes of Eastern Europe.

Vaclav Klaus is probably the most prominent politician in Europe’s former socialist camp during the recent 15 years. He became the finance minister of the Czech and Slovak Federative Republics after the collapse of socialism in 1989. Klaus became the president of the Czech Republic in 2003 and was reelected last year.

Vaclav Klaus’s reforms to change the political and economic regimes in the country were absolutely painless. Czech cars are competitive and reputable in Europe; the country’s agriculture can fully supply the nation with high-quality and inexpensive food. The Czechs do not travel to neighboring states for earnings as it happens in most of other countries of the former socialist camp. The living standard in the Czech Republic has become higher than that in Poland, Hungary and in the Baltic States.

In the beginning of the 1990s, Klaus wanted to make his country become a NATO member. However, he harshly criticized the wars in Yugoslavia and Iraq in 1999 and in 2003. He also stood up against Kosovo’s independence. He repeatedly supported the idea to deploy elements of the US missile defense system in the Czech Republic, although he did not take any efforts to give the process a go.

Klaus’s attitude to Russia has been changing periodically. He was a totally pro-Western politician in the beginning of the 1990s. As soon as he became the president, he said that he did not share anti-Russian sentiments of his predecessor, Vaclav Havel. Klaus has never said anything negative about Russia during the recent six years. When Georgia attacked South Ossetia in 2008, the Czech president stated that Georgia should not be justified for its actions.

On May 13 Klaus set out a protest against the attempts to rewrite the history of Second World War and urged other leaders not to blacken the role of the USSR and Russia in the history of the 20th century.

Vaclav Klaus can considerably improve the relations between Russia and the European Union. However, his European counterparts may not want it at all.

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