This just in from the G20 summit

"World 'a few hours' from global plan for economic recovery and reform," announces the official web site of the London G20 summit (last checked at 5:02 pm EST--it won't be there for very long). 

Alas, the reality is more like this. 

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[raivo pommer-eesti]

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raimo1@hot.ee

Finantzkrise 2008-2015

Um die Folgen der Marktöffnung besser abschätzen zu können, hat der Verband beim Institut für Versicherungswirtschaft der Uni St.Gallen eine Studie in Auftrag gegeben. Sie sollte bis im Juli vorliegen. «Wir prüfen, wie sich eine gegenseitige Liberalisierung auf die Branche und den Standort Schweiz auswirken würde», sagt Professor Hato Schmeiser, «und welche Bereiche davon am meisten profitierten.» Schmeiser sieht vor allem im Pensionskassengeschäft Potenzial. Da läge in der Tat viel drin: Die Branche geht davon aus, dass sich das private Pensionskassenvermögen in Europa von momentan 5000 Milliarden Franken bis 2015 verdoppeln wird. Weniger Bürokratie bei der Aufsicht

Weil Marktöffnungen politisch heikel sind, prüft die Branche auch Alternativen. Im Vordergrund steht dabei die gegenseitige Anerkennung der Aufsichtsbehörden. Heute sehen sich die Schweizer Versicherungen mit vielen national unterschiedlichen Regeln und Gremien konfrontiert. «Ziel ist, dass die im Ausland tätigen Tochtergesellschaften künftig von der Schweizer Aufsicht überwacht werden können. Und dass die Arbeit der hiesigen Kontrolleure als gleichwertig anerkannt wird», sagt Beat Krieger vom Versicherungsverband. «Damit wäre schon viel gewonnen.»

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John Maynard Keynes, der große britische Weltökonom, sagte, Zentralbanken machen ineffiziente Märkte erst effizient. Milton Friedman, der große amerikanische Weltökonom, sagte, Zentralbanken machen effiziente Märkte erst ineffizient. George Cooper, der Autor des überaus lesenswerten Buches „The Origin of Financial Crisis“, fragt angesichts dieses logischen Widerspruchs direkt und unverblümt, ob man überhaupt von einer Wissenschaft mit Welterklärungsanspruch sprechen könne, wenn von der Wirtschaftslehre die Rede ist.

Natürlich ist das zugespitzt. Nichtsdestotrotz lugt genau diese Frage hinter jeder der aktuell unzähligen Finanzkrisennachrichten hervor, genauso wie sich die Theologie nach jedem Krieg, jeder Hungersnot und nach jeder Riesenflutwelle abermals die Frage gefallen lassen muss, ob es Gott wirklich gibt. Können Ökonomen mit ihren Methoden also eine Finanzkrise wie die aktuelle erklären? Ja, antwortet darauf Cooper, sie können es. Aber nicht alle. Und vor allem: nicht alle gleichzeitig. Weder können beide, Friedman und Keynes, recht haben, noch kann als dazu dritte Position der derzeit gültige Ökonomenkonsens gelten, nachdem Märkte zwar eigentlich effizient sind, aber jede wichtige Wirtschaftsregion dieser Erde trotzdem eine eigene mehr oder weniger unabhängige Zentralbank braucht. „Wenn Isaac Newton diesen Standard an sich selbst angelegt hätte“, schreibt Cooper, „dann hätte er uns drei Gravitationsgesetze gegeben: Eines, das erklärt, wie sich ein Apfel verhält, der in die Luft geworfen wird; ein anderes, das beschreibt, wie er wieder zu Boden fällt; und ein drittes, dass uns erklärt, dass sich der Apfel gar nicht bewegt.“

[raivo pommer-eesti.]

raivo pommer-www.google.ee
raimo1@hot.ee

OeNB Bank in WIEN

Durch die Brisanz der Affäre rund um die Immobilienfirma Meinl European Land (MEL, heute Atrium Real Estate) ist auch der Wirtschaftsprüfer Philip Göth wieder ins Zentrum des öffentlichen Interesses gerückt.

Göth sitzt im Aufsichtsgremium der Oesterreichischen Nationalbank (OeNB) – dem Generalrat – und hat Ende 2006 per Gutachten den börsegehandelten MEL-Papieren bescheinigt, "zur teilweisen Veranlagung von Mündelgeld" geeignet zu sein. Mittlerweile haben Anleger viel Geld mit dem verloren, was Göth als "MEL-Aktie" bezeichnete, obwohl es sich dabei um Zertifikate gehandelt hat. Konsumentenschützer werfen Meinl vor, zu Unrecht mit der Mündelsicherheit geworben zu haben.

Es könne nicht sein, dass Göth weiterhin als Generalrat der OeNB tätig sei, poltert SPÖ-Finanzsprecher Jan Krainer. Neben dem MEL-Gutachten stößt sich Krainer auch an Göths Rolle als Aufsichtsrat der Bank Medici – jenes Wiener Institutes, das Fonds des mutmaßlichen US-Milliardenbetrügers Bernard Madoff vertrieben hat.

[raivo pommer-eesti.]

raivo pommer-www.google.ee
raimo1@hot.ee

PEUGEOT CRISE

The board of PSA, Europe's No. 2 automaker after Volkswagen, cited "the extraordinary difficulties currently faced by the automotive industry" as its reason for replacing Streiff with Philippe Varin, currently the boss of steelmaker Corus. But Streiff, 54, had alienated other top PSA managers and infuriated the French government by vowing to shrink the group's payroll-even after receiving a nearly $4 billion government bailout that was supposed to protect jobs.

Although rumors had circulated for weeks that Streiff's job was in danger, the announcement clearly caught him off guard. Through an outside spokesman, he issued a statement calling the board's decision "incomprehensible," adding, "The policies we defined and put in place over the past two years have left PSA well-armed against the current crisis." Investors didn't seem happy, either: PSA shares sank more than 9 percent on the news of Streiff's departure.

[raivo pommer-eesti.]

raivopommer-www.google.ee
raimo1@hot.ee

OIL IRAQ

With security in Iraq improving, international oil companies are quickly moving in, often with little or no fanfare. Hanter Gasser, Royal Dutch Shell's (RDS) top executive for Iraq, recently spent a week in Basra, site of the country's biggest fields, checking on a joint venture Shell is starting with the Iraqis to find commercial uses for the gas that is flared off during oil production. Gasser says Iraq burns off enough gas to power two countries the size of Jordan.

Iraqi police officers protecting oil installations north of Basra.
Shell is one of about 30 oil companies, including ExxonMobil, Chevron, and BP, that are pursuing licensing agreements with Baghdad. Iraq intends to boost production in seven fields holding an estimated 44 billion barrels of reserves, more than a third of its total. Those agreements are supposed to be awarded in a few months. "We have high interest in Iraq, and we are waiting to see the terms," Gasser says. Iraqi oil production, at a low 2.5 million barrels a day, is just where it was before the war. If Iraq produced anywhere near its targeted 6 million barrels a day, it could change the industry's dynamics and curb talk of a looming shortage.

[raivo pommer-]

raivo pommer-raimo.pommer@wippies.fi

CRISE OIL

Die Internationale Energieagentur (IEA) hat ihre Prognose für die weltweite Ölnachfrage wegen der Wirtschaftskrise erneut um eine Million Fass (je 159 Liter) pro Tag gesenkt. Die Nachfrage werde im laufenden Jahr mit 83,4 Millionen Fass pro Tag um 2,4 Millionen niedriger sein als 2008.

Das schreibt die IEA in ihrem jetzt veröffentlichten Ölmarktbericht. Erstmals seit vier Monaten hat der Ölpreis Anfang April die Marke von 50 Dollar je Fass wieder überschritten. Die IEA erwartet aber wegen der Nachfrageschwäche keine nachhaltige Preissteigerung.

Die Tagesproduktion sank im März um 400 000 auf 83,4 Millionen Fass. Gleichzeitig wachsen die Ölvorräte. Im Februar hatten die westlichen Industriestaaten mit 2,74 Milliarden Fass rund 7,2 Prozent mehr Öl auf Lager als ein Jahr zuvor, weil in Asien stark gebunkert wurde.

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[raivo pommer-eesti.]

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raimo1@hot.ee

REZESSION IN MICROSOFT

Der weltgrößte Softwarekonzern Microsoft hat durch die Krise am PC-Markt einen herben Gewinneinbruch erlitten. Der Überschuss brach im abgelaufenen Quartal um fast ein Drittel auf knapp 3,0 Milliarden Dollar (2,3 Mrd Euro) ein. Der Umsatz fiel um sechs Prozent auf 13,6 Milliarden Dollar, wie der US-Konzern am Donnerstag nach Börsenschluss am Sitz in Redmond (Bundesstaat Washington) mitteilte. Das ist der erste Rückgang der Quartalserlöse im Jahresvergleich seit der Windows-Konzern Anfang 1986 an die Börse ging.

Microsoft rechnet überdies nicht mit einer schnellen Besserung am Markt. "Wir erwarten, dass die Schwäche mindestens bis ins nächste Quartal anhält", sagte Finanzchef Chris Liddell. Mit seinen Zahlen enttäuschte der Softwareriese die Erwartungen der Analysten.

Der PC-Absatz war im ersten Quartal laut den Marktforschern von Gartner um 6,5 Prozent geschrumpft. Werden weniger Computer verkauft, kann Microsoft damit zum Beispiel auch sein Betriebssystem Windows seltener absetzen. Außerdem sind immer mehr der verkauften Computer Mini-Notebooks, von denen zahlreiche nicht mit Windows, sondern mit dem freien Betriebssystem Linux laufen.

[raivo pommer-eesti.]

raivo pommer-www.google.ee
raimo1@hot.ee

CALAIS

French immigration minister Eric Besson pledged today to remove a camp where illegal migrants gather near the port of Calais to try crossing to Britain.

The "jungle", as the makeshift tent city is known locally, sprang up after France closed a large Red Cross centre at nearby Sangatte in 2002, under pressure from Britain which saw it as a magnet for clandestine migrants.

"The jungle will no longer exist," Mr Besson told local business leaders during a visit to Calais.

"To maintain and develop the jungle would be an obstacle to economic interests and employment," he said.

Mr Besson was due to make a speech later outlining specific measures. His visit to Calais comes two days after police and bulldozers swooped on the camp, arresting about 200 migrants and removing their tents made of plastic sheeting and bits of wood.

The raid angered human rights activists who said it made no sense to clear out the "jungle" as migrants would simply relocate elsewhere in the area, as they did after Sangatte was closed. France and Britain should be looking for more sustainable solutions, they said.

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The raid angered human rights activists who said it made no sense to clear out the "jungle" as migrants would simply relocate elsewhere in the area, as they did after Sangatte was closed.

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