David Warsh on John Geanakoplos

David Warsh knows how to spin a yarn about economics and economists. His latest post features John Geanokoplos of Yale and the waves he has been making in academic and policy circles with his work on "leverage cycles." His ideas have been around for a while, but Geanokoplos says they have caught on only recently:

“After it was finally published, as “Liquidity, Defaults and Crashes” in the conference volume in 2003, I gave that Seattle paper at every major university.  It was exactly about the liquidity cycle, but it didn’t really catch on,” Geanakoplos recalled last week. The time for it wasn’t ripe. The Asian financial crisis had been contained. No lender lost a dollar when LTCM failed. The consequences of the dot.com crash had been confined mainly to the stock market. For the next seven years, business as usual resumed. “This time they are more interested.”

Here is the fundamental insight, according to Warsh:

a single loan requires not one but two terms to be negotiated, and that one may become much more important than the other in certain situations was clear enough to Shakespeare four hundred years ago. Wrote Geanakoplos: “Who can remember the interest rate that Shylock charged Antonio? But everybody remembers the pound of flesh that Shylock and Antonio agreed upon as collateral. The upshot of the play, moreover, is the regulatory authority (the court) decides that the collateral level Shylock and Antonio agreed upon was socially suboptimal, and the court decrees a different collateral –a pound of flesh but not a drop of blood.” Thus did the The Merchant of Venice end happily, not with a cramdown, but with very different terms if the loan were to be foreclosed.

The trick, Geanakoplos says, is to recognize that the tendency to increasing leverage is part of the process – and that collateralization generates bigger and bigger effects on assets prices as the cycle rolls on, until, in due course, for one reason or another, participants eventually become uneasy with the situation, and the cycle comes to a crashing halt.  To reduce the foreclosure mess (the paralyzing bad news in the current situation), he recommends Fed-mandated principal write-downs for non-prime borrowers whose loans are underwater. To stop the de-leveraging, he says, the Fed should prop up leverage at moderate levels, even if the market demands more collateral.  To replace the natural optimists who have gone broke, the government must step in and do some buying.  That’s what the Troubled Assets Relief Program was for. And the market has been buoyed recently by the prospect of more of the same. But if the anticipated TARP II is not forthcoming, he says, the rescue effort probably back again.

So add John Geanakoplos to the (short) list of economists we should all have been listening to more intently (Bob Shiller, Nouriel Roubini, Raghu Rajan, ???).

Comments

[Steve Laniel]

Depends on which Bob Shiller we're listening to. Is it the Bob Shiller of Irrational Exuberance? Or the Bob Shiller of "New Financial Order" whose guiding mantra seems to be "let's securitize everything"? His heart is in the right place, surely, but his writings are schizophrenic.

[sean]

surprised you didn't think it was relevant to note that he is a managing director and head of research at the biggest mortgage backed securities hedge fund in the world, one that lost an enormous amount of money last year and has had to freeze investor redemptions. so either he wasn't putting his money where his mouth was or his firm needs to start listening to him more.

[Mattyoung]

Did the auth0or explain why? I have not read the paper. But he has to explain why we do not reach a constraining level of uncertainty that stops the process.

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BAD BANKEN

Bundesfinanzminister Peer Steinbrück (SPD) will faule Wertpapiere von Geldinstituten in sogenannte Bad Banks auslagern und diese durch Steuergelder absichern. Er habe einen Plan zur Errichtung mehrerer Bad Banks vorgelegt, den Bundeskanzlerin Angela Merkel (CDU) bereits kenne, bestätigte Steinbrück der Frankfurter Allgemeinen Sonntagszeitung.

Nach Ostern werde die Bundesregierung sein Konzept beraten. Am 21. April werden mehrere Kabinettsmitglieder mit Vertretern des Sonderfonds für Finanzmarktstabilisierung (SoFFin) und der Bundesbank zusammenkommen, um die Auslagerung fauler Wertpapiere zu erörtern. Die Union zeigte sich zufrieden damit, dass in die Debatte um Bad Banks Bewegung gekommen ist.

Steinbrück machte erneut deutlich, dass er gegen eine gemeinsame Bad Bank für den gesamten Bankensektor ist. "Ich lehne definitiv eine zentrale Bad Bank ab." Stattdessen sollten sich die betroffenen Banken in einen guten und in einen schlechten Teil aufspalten. Hier will der Minister offenbar wiederum zwischen toxischen (vergifteten) und momentan illiquiden Papieren unterscheiden.

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UK-list of the worlds

Just five UK companies have made it on to a list of the world's most ethical corporations, published by an American research institute today.

Marks & Spencer, the retailer, HSBC, the London-listed banking giant, Vodafone, the telecoms group and AstraZeneca, the drugs maker and the emerging markets bank Standard Chartered are included in a list of 99 "good corporate citizens", compiled by the Ethisphere Institute.

The Anglo-Dutch consumer goods group Unilever and Thomson Reuters, the newly merged Anglo-American media group also make the institute's cut this year.

[ramierz]

It is difficult to omit Dean Baker from the short list. He recognized the housing bubble as early as 2002.

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: US banking giant Goldman Sachs said Monday it had raised 5.5 bn dollars from investors, including from Asia and Europe, for a fund to
acquire private-equity assets.

GS Vintage Fund V is the latest fund raised by the Alternative Investments & Manager Selection Group of Goldman Sachs Asset

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More than three months into a medical leave from Apple Inc, Chief Executive Steve Jobs remains closely involved in key aspects of
Steve Jobs

running the company, the Wall Street Journal reported on Saturday, citing people familiar with the matter.

Chief Operating Officer Tim Cook runs the day-to-day operations, but Jobs has continued to work on the company's most important strategies and products from home, the newspaper said in a story on its website.

He regularly reviews products and product plans, and was particularly involved in the user interface of the new iPhone operating system that Apple unveiled last month, the Journal said.

Jobs, an Apple co-founder who is considered the company's creative leader, is also involved in the development of future projects, the paper said, citing people with knowledge of the company's strategy.

Jobs, 54, who was treated in 2004 for a rare form of pancreatic cancer, took a medical leave in early January, saying he would return in June and would remain involved in "major strategic decisions while I am out".

But he has made no public appearances or statements since then, and it has been unclear just how involved he continued to be, the Journal said.

[runescape money]

Great site and I am really pleased to see you have what I am actually looking for here and this post is exactly what I am interested in. I shall be pleased to become a regular visitor

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Malaysia Airlines said Wednesday it has dropped a proposed joint venture with Australia's Qantas Airways for aircraft maintenance and repair. Managing Director Idris Jala said discussions were halted after a preliminary agreement for the Malaysian project inked in 2007 lapsed recently. The news came amid new woes at Qantas, which on Tuesday slashed its annual profit forecast and said it would cut up to 5 percent of its work force as it...

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INTEL

Die Wirtschaftsflaute hat dem weltgrößten Chiphersteller Intel auch zu Jahresbeginn das Geschäft vermiest. Trotz eines Gewinn- und Umsatzeinbruchs schnitt der US-Konzern aber nicht so schlecht ab wie von Experten befürchtet.

Der Branchenprimus sieht zudem eine Trendwende in der Absatzkrise auf dem PC-Markt. Intels Überschuss stürzte im ersten Quartal im Vergleich zum Vorjahr um mehr als die Hälfte auf 647 Millionen Dollar ab. Der Umsatz fiel um mehr als ein Viertel auf 7,1 Milliarden Dollar (5,4 Mrd Euro), wie der Konzern am Dienstag nach US-Börsenschluss am Sitz im kalifornischen Santa Clara mitteilte. Etwa auf dieser Höhe sollen die Erlöse laut Intels Planungen auch im laufenden Quartal liegen.

[Mike S]

How is his cycle different than Minsky's credit cycle? It does not appear to have any functional difference.

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Citigroup Gewinn

Die amerikanische Citigroup Inc. hat erstmals seit fünf Quartalen mit Verlust nun wieder einen Gewinn verbucht. Die Bank erwirtschaftete für diesen Zeitraum vor allem aufgrund eines robusten Geschäfts im Anleihehandel einen Nettogewinn von 1,6 Milliarden Dollar. Dennoch wies die Citigroup einen Verlust von 18 Cent je Stammaktie aus. Sie begründete das mit einer Zurücksetzung des Wandlungspreises für Vorzugsaktien, die im Januar 2008 ausgegeben worden waren. Der Verlust für die Stammaktionäre erklärt sich zudem mit Dividendenzahlungen an Vorzugsaktionäre.

Die Citigroup hatte im vergangenen Jahr Vorzugsaktien ausgegeben, um angesichts steigender Verluste Kapital aufzunehmen. Die amerikanische Regierung stützte die Citigroup auf diese Weise mit insgesamt 45 Milliarden Dollar. Seit dem Beginn der Finanzkrise im zweiten Halbjahr 2007 hatte das Fnanzinstitut Verluste von 28 Milliarden Dollar angehäuft. Das Ergebnis der Citigroup übertraf die Erwartungen der Analysten an der Wall Street, die im Durchschnitt mit einem Verlust von 34 Cent je Aktie gerechnet hat. Der Aktienkurs reagierte im Handel an der New Yorker Börse aber mit Abschlägen.

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ENDE DER KRISE 2010 oder 2015 oder 2020

- Deutsche Finanzexperten rechnen trotz zahlreicher Negativbotschaften immer fester mit einem Ende der Krise.

Das vom Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW) in Mannheim ermittelte Konjunkturbarometer schlug im April überraschend deutlich aus und landete erstmals seit Juli 2007 wieder im positiven Bereich: Der Index der Erwartungen stieg seit März von minus 3,5 Punkten um 16,5 Punkte auf 13,0 Punkte, wie das ZEW am Dienstag in Mannheim mitteilte. Damit liegt er aber noch unter dem historischen Mittelwert von 26,1 Punkten. Die aktuelle Lage für Deutschland wird von den Fachleuten jedoch so schlecht beurteilt wie zuletzt im September 2003, für den Euroraum wird sogar ein historischer Negativrekord erreicht.

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ECONOMIC SLUMP

The IMF urges more aggressive action by governments to clean up banks and financial groups swiftly and to purge them of toxic assets. It warns that failure to pursue this urgently risks aggravating the banks’ plight and prolonging the world economic slump.

The fund has sharply raised its estimate of losses on lending, first made in the United States, for a second time, to $2.7 trillion. That compares with an initial forecast of just under $1 trillion and a $2.2 trillion estimate six months ago. For the first time, the IMF has also issued estimates of likely losses inflicted by lending originated in Europe and Japan. It puts likely write-offs due to European lending at $1.19 trillion and those for Japan at $149 billion.

New losses to be written off by British banks this year and next are put at $200 billion, compared with $750 billion for eurozone banks and $550 billion for the US. The fresh UK losses come on top of $110 billion already written off up to the end of last year.

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REZESSION IN MICROSOFT

Der weltgrößte Softwarekonzern Microsoft hat durch die Krise am PC-Markt einen herben Gewinneinbruch erlitten. Der Überschuss brach im abgelaufenen Quartal um fast ein Drittel auf knapp 3,0 Milliarden Dollar (2,3 Mrd Euro) ein. Der Umsatz fiel um sechs Prozent auf 13,6 Milliarden Dollar, wie der US-Konzern am Donnerstag nach Börsenschluss am Sitz in Redmond (Bundesstaat Washington) mitteilte. Das ist der erste Rückgang der Quartalserlöse im Jahresvergleich seit der Windows-Konzern Anfang 1986 an die Börse ging.

Microsoft rechnet überdies nicht mit einer schnellen Besserung am Markt. "Wir erwarten, dass die Schwäche mindestens bis ins nächste Quartal anhält", sagte Finanzchef Chris Liddell. Mit seinen Zahlen enttäuschte der Softwareriese die Erwartungen der Analysten.

Der PC-Absatz war im ersten Quartal laut den Marktforschern von Gartner um 6,5 Prozent geschrumpft. Werden weniger Computer verkauft, kann Microsoft damit zum Beispiel auch sein Betriebssystem Windows seltener absetzen. Außerdem sind immer mehr der verkauften Computer Mini-Notebooks, von denen zahlreiche nicht mit Windows, sondern mit dem freien Betriebssystem Linux laufen.

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CALAIS

French immigration minister Eric Besson pledged today to remove a camp where illegal migrants gather near the port of Calais to try crossing to Britain.

The "jungle", as the makeshift tent city is known locally, sprang up after France closed a large Red Cross centre at nearby Sangatte in 2002, under pressure from Britain which saw it as a magnet for clandestine migrants.

"The jungle will no longer exist," Mr Besson told local business leaders during a visit to Calais.

"To maintain and develop the jungle would be an obstacle to economic interests and employment," he said.

Mr Besson was due to make a speech later outlining specific measures. His visit to Calais comes two days after police and bulldozers swooped on the camp, arresting about 200 migrants and removing their tents made of plastic sheeting and bits of wood.

The raid angered human rights activists who said it made no sense to clear out the "jungle" as migrants would simply relocate elsewhere in the area, as they did after Sangatte was closed. France and Britain should be looking for more sustainable solutions, they said.

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SLOW- MOTION

Federal regulators on Friday will privately begin telling the 19 largest US financial institutions how well they performed in stress
tests to assess their soundness.

Regulators trying to stabilize the financial system also will release the test methodology they used, which could provide clues about which banks may be in trouble - but also could could unwittingly roil the industry.

The results of the stress tests won't be publicly released until May 4.

The slow-motion rollout is intended to blunt market reaction to the news of which banks are healthy, which ones could fail if the recession worsens and which need more money to survive.

News reports, including a confidential outline of the tests first reported by The Associated Press this week, have led analysts to start handicapping which banks could fail. The speculation will intensify with Friday's release of the test methodology.

``I'm worried about the overreaction - people selling every bank short and pulling out all their deposits and hiding their money in the mattress,'' said Scott Talbott, a lobbyist with the Financial Services Roundtable, which represents the biggest financial firms.

Regulators are striving to release enough information about the stress tests to inspire confidence. But they don't want to give analysts so much detail that they can run their own tests on the banks before the official release of results.

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FIAT SERBIEN-OSTBILLIGARBEITER

Der italienische Autobauer Fiat kämpft bei der neuen Produktion seines Modells Punto in Serbien laut einem Zeitungsbericht mit massiven Qualitätsproblemen.

Von den zum Start der Montagelinie in der Stadt Kragujevac fertiggestellten ersten 305 Fahrzeugen seien nur 54 als fehlerlos zum Verkauf freigegeben worden, berichtete die serbische Tageszeitung «Politika» am Samstag. Fiat lässt bei seinem langjährigen serbischen Kooperationspartner Zastava das Punto-Vorgängermodell für den Verkauf in Osteuropa montieren.

Mal sei die Motorhaube knapp unter, mal knapp über den Kotflügeln ausgekommen, beschrieb das Blatt einige Qualitätsmängel. Ein anderes Mal habe ein Auto das Montageband ohne die vordere Stoßstange verlassen. Probleme gebe es auch bei der Lackierung, die per Hand erfolge. Die einen machten die mangelnde Qualifikationen der Arbeitskräfte, andere Fehler an den aus Italien gelieferten Montageteilen für die Probleme verantwortlich.

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BRITISH CHRISE

Equally, it may be true that British GDP will be lower than the government forecasts by the middle of the next decade - credit crunches are much harder to slip away from than the government forecasts. But after the stimulus the economy has received, there should be some growth, broadly corresponding to the shape the Treasury predicts.

The real issue is the evaporation of our economic and political pretensions. The Treasury has been forced to recognise that 5% of Britain's GDP has disappeared forever. Too many industries were dependent upon the crazy world of ever-rising house prices and easy credit; now gone for ever. This means that the path to sustainable public finances is going to be astonishingly painful. We can live with national debt doubling, but it cannot double again.

The numbers are terrifying. Budget deficits, even for Keynesian apostles of deficit finance like me, cannot stay at 12% of GDP, or £175bn, for very long, however justifiable in recession. The problem is that so much economic capacity has permanently disappeared, along with those parts of the economy that used to deliver rich tax revenues; the post-recession economy will only reduce the deficit by a quarter. The rest has got to be found by tax increases or reductions in planned spending.

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US-BANKEN

The United States pledged robust support Saturday for an overhaul of governing power within the International Monetary Fund so key emerging-market nations get more say in how the lender operates.

In a speech to the IMF's steering committee, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner also called on the fund to be prepared to offer loans to recapitalize banks or to aid developing countries in rolling over corporate debt.

Geithner's proposals, delivered in a strongly worded address at the IMF's semiannual meeting, are likely to provoke some controversy among the other industralized countries who, with the United States, have long dominated the global lender.

He said, however, it was necessary to retool the IMF to reflect a shift in global economic reality.

"This is essential to strengthening the IMF's legitimacy, ensuring that it remains at the center of the international monetary system and reflects the realities of the 21st century," Geithner said.

Washington's commitment to reform carries special weight because it is the biggest single shareholder within the IMF.

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AMERICA-EUROPE

Barack Obama is unhappy with much that preceded his occupation of the White House, and not only his predecessor’s foreign policy, for which he is a serial apologiser. Pre-Obama domestic policy also displeases him: any prosperity the nation enjoyed, he says, was built on a foundation of sand. That, won’t happen again: the trillions of debt he is loading on the nation’s books will enable us to erect our post-recession house on solid rock. Our world will never be the same again.

Of course, it never has been: the march of technology has enabled us to travel faster, age more slowly, entertain ourselves differently, and build air-conditioned homes in the miserably hot south and southwest, and in our nation’s steamy capital. But the president has something more in mind and, with control of both houses of Congress, the power to change the way we live now. Let’s make a few guesses as to where those changes will take us.

Top of the president’s change list is the way we consume energy. He believes our use of carbon-based fuels is causing the globe to heat up, with all the dire consequences conjured up by Al Gore as he sits in the library of his home, probably the largest single consumer of energy of any private residence in America. By one means or another, the president will make the use of oil, natural gas and especially coal so expensive that consumers will be forced to use less energy, and rely more for the energy we do use on costly wind and solar power, paid for with tax-funded subsidies or higher utility bills.

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WORLDCRISE

Lady Godiva's legendary ride naked through Coventry was perhaps one of the most effective anti-tax demonstrations in history. Her tyrannical husband, Earl Leofric, had imposed an oppressive tax called the Heregeld to pay for the King’s bodyguard.

After pleading with him to repeal the tax, Leofric replied: "You will have to ride naked through Coventry before I will change my ways". So Godiva took him at his word – after ordering the town to close all their windows and doors, she rode through the town with only her long golden hair as her cover. True to his word, Godiva’s husband repealed the hated tax.

2. 1773: Colonial taxes

The Boston Tea party was not a party, but a demonstration against the unfair taxation of colonies. The British Government gave the British East India Company, an English trade company, far more beneficial tax arrangements than its colonial competitors.

Demonstrators in Boston became particularly fed-up with this, and one night a group of protestors sneaked onboard a docked British East India Company ship and unloaded 45 tons of tea (worth an estimated £10,000 - that is about £953,000 today) into the sea. The event ultimately helped spark the American Revolution and the loss of America to the British Empire.

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The current crisis may mean he is about 10 years out – but, still, not a bad prediction for a man who died in 1938.

HousePriceCrash.co.uk was established in October 2003 after its founders predicted “one of the potentially biggest economic boom bust events in living memory” was coming. Its aim, apparently, is to provide a “counterbalance to the huge amounts of positive spin the housing market receives in the main media”.

Whist there is not currently a lot of positive news about the housing market to counter, the site does provide a plethora of information, statistics and forums for those interested in the great house price crash.

He may not have predicted the entire financial meltdown, but he did warn the Government of the possible collapse of Icelandic banks back in July. He said last week: “"Alarm bells were ringing all over about the Icelandic banks and the Treasury must have been blind and deaf not to hear them."

In a written question to the government in July, he asked: "What steps [have] the United Kingdom financial authorities taken to satisfy themselves, independently of the Icelandic financial authorities, of the solvency and stability of Icelandic banks taking deposits in the United Kingdom?”

Lord Davies, for the Government, replied that there was no concern about the liquidity or capital base of Icelandic banks operating in the UK.

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PANIC

The financial events of recent weeks have filled many of us with shock and panic. Surely no one could have predicted that we would be in this mess? Well, actually, they did. Here are ten people who saw the financial meltdown coming...

Here is a question Mr Cable’s posed to Gordon Brown, then Chancellor, during Treasury Questions back in November 2003: “The growth of the British economy is sustained by consumer spending pinned against record levels of personal debt, which is secured, if at all, against house prices that the Bank of England describes as well above equilibrium level. What action will the Chancellor take on the problem of consumer debt?”

Mr Brown did not answer how he would solve the problem, merely replying that: “We have been right about the prospects for growth in the British economy, and the hon. Gentleman (Mr. Cable) has been wrong.”

In October 2005 Mr Wood wisely declared: "Investors should sell all exposure to the American mortgage securities market." In an interview in 2007, he said: "Some institutions have been behaving like leveraged speculators rather than banks… The UK economy is heading for a sharp shock. It just remains to be seen how bad

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PANIC

The financial events of recent weeks have filled many of us with shock and panic. Surely no one could have predicted that we would be in this mess? Well, actually, they did. Here are ten people who saw the financial meltdown coming...

Here is a question Mr Cable’s posed to Gordon Brown, then Chancellor, during Treasury Questions back in November 2003: “The growth of the British economy is sustained by consumer spending pinned against record levels of personal debt, which is secured, if at all, against house prices that the Bank of England describes as well above equilibrium level. What action will the Chancellor take on the problem of consumer debt?”

Mr Brown did not answer how he would solve the problem, merely replying that: “We have been right about the prospects for growth in the British economy, and the hon. Gentleman (Mr. Cable) has been wrong.”

In October 2005 Mr Wood wisely declared: "Investors should sell all exposure to the American mortgage securities market." In an interview in 2007, he said: "Some institutions have been behaving like leveraged speculators rather than banks… The UK economy is heading for a sharp shock. It just remains to be seen how bad

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CHINA GOLD

Die Volksrepublik China hat ihre Goldreserven seit dem Jahr 2003 von 600 auf 1.054 Tonnen aufgestockt. Das teilte der Leiter der Verwaltung der Währungsreserven, Hu Xiaolian, der chinesischen Nachrichtenagentur Xinhua mit.

Peking hatte in den vergangenen Jahren keine präzisen Angaben über seine Goldreserven gemacht. Marktkenner vermuteten allerdings schon länger, dass Peking seine Reserven ausbauen würde. Der Goldpreis legte am Freitag in Reaktion auf die Meldung aus China leicht zu. Kurz nach Eröffnung des New Yorker Handels kostete die Unze dort 908 Dollar. Der HUI-Index (Amex Gold Bugs Index) führender Goldminenwerte verbesserte sich zu Handelsbeginn um 3 Prozent auf 299 Punkte. Ende März hatte der Index noch 342 Punkte erreicht.

Leichte Diversifizierung der riesigen Währungsreserven

Wie Hu Xiaolian sagte, erfolgte der Reservenaufbau überwiegend durch Käufe von in China selbst gefördertem Gold. China gehört seit Jahren zu den wichtigsten Förderländern der Welt. Mit ihren Reserven von 1.054 Tonnen übertrifft die Volksrepublik die Schweiz, die Reserven von 1.040 Tonnen ausweist. Innerhalb der chinesischen Währungsreserven von rund 2.000 Milliarden Dollar spielt Gold aber nach wie vor nur eine bescheidene Rolle: Der Marktwert der Goldreserven beträgt lediglich gut 30 Milliarden Dollar.

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CHINA GOLD

Die Volksrepublik China hat ihre Goldreserven seit dem Jahr 2003 von 600 auf 1.054 Tonnen aufgestockt. Das teilte der Leiter der Verwaltung der Währungsreserven, Hu Xiaolian, der chinesischen Nachrichtenagentur Xinhua mit.

Peking hatte in den vergangenen Jahren keine präzisen Angaben über seine Goldreserven gemacht. Marktkenner vermuteten allerdings schon länger, dass Peking seine Reserven ausbauen würde. Der Goldpreis legte am Freitag in Reaktion auf die Meldung aus China leicht zu. Kurz nach Eröffnung des New Yorker Handels kostete die Unze dort 908 Dollar. Der HUI-Index (Amex Gold Bugs Index) führender Goldminenwerte verbesserte sich zu Handelsbeginn um 3 Prozent auf 299 Punkte. Ende März hatte der Index noch 342 Punkte erreicht.

Leichte Diversifizierung der riesigen Währungsreserven

Wie Hu Xiaolian sagte, erfolgte der Reservenaufbau überwiegend durch Käufe von in China selbst gefördertem Gold. China gehört seit Jahren zu den wichtigsten Förderländern der Welt. Mit ihren Reserven von 1.054 Tonnen übertrifft die Volksrepublik die Schweiz, die Reserven von 1.040 Tonnen ausweist. Innerhalb der chinesischen Währungsreserven von rund 2.000 Milliarden Dollar spielt Gold aber nach wie vor nur eine bescheidene Rolle: Der Marktwert der Goldreserven beträgt lediglich gut 30 Milliarden Dollar.

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The biggest German bank, Deutsche Bank, posted on Tuesday strong first quarter results, the latest major bank in Europe and North
America to offer hope for an eventual end to the financial crisis.

Deutsche Bank reported a net profit of 1.2 billion euros ($1.56 billion), far surpassing market expectations.

In the first quarter of 2008, Deutsche Bank had posted a net loss of 141 million euros, and analysts polled by Dow Jones Newswires had forecast a net profit of 764 million euros this time around.

Bank chairman Josef Ackermann said: "This was a key quarter for Deutsche Bank. Once again we demonstrated our strength, as we have consistently throughout this crisis. "But in this quarter, we also proved our earnings power."

Deutsche Bank is the latest global bank to report solid first quarter results, along with peers such as Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and Credit Suisse, giving a glimmer of hope that the financial crisis could be past the worst.

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The biggest German bank, Deutsche Bank, posted on Tuesday strong first quarter results, the latest major bank in Europe and North
America to offer hope for an eventual end to the financial crisis.

Deutsche Bank reported a net profit of 1.2 billion euros ($1.56 billion), far surpassing market expectations.

In the first quarter of 2008, Deutsche Bank had posted a net loss of 141 million euros, and analysts polled by Dow Jones Newswires had forecast a net profit of 764 million euros this time around.

Bank chairman Josef Ackermann said: "This was a key quarter for Deutsche Bank. Once again we demonstrated our strength, as we have consistently throughout this crisis. "But in this quarter, we also proved our earnings power."

Deutsche Bank is the latest global bank to report solid first quarter results, along with peers such as Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and Credit Suisse, giving a glimmer of hope that the financial crisis could be past the worst.

[raivo pommer-eesti.]

Im Jahr 1954 das Flaggschiff der Gesellschaft.

Nur drei Fondsmanager hat es seitdem vor Sweeting gegeben, darunter Sir John Templeton, den Firmengründer. Er hat die Investmententscheidungen des Fonds mehr als 30 Jahre lang selbst gefällt, bevor er 1987 andere ans Ruder lies

Sweeting führt die Geschäfte seit Anfang vergangenen Jahres. Sie hat keine leichte Zeit erwischt. Denn seit einigen Jahren läuft der einst 40 Milliarden schwere Templeton Growth der internationalen Marktentwicklung hinterher. So gab der Fonds in Euro gerechnet allein im ersten Quartal des Jahres 41 Prozent nach, der Vergleichsindex büßte dagegen 37 Prozent ein. Auch auf Fünfjahressicht schneidet der Templeton Growth Fund schlechter ab als der Aktienindex MSCI Welt.

[raivo pommer-eesti.]

The long awaited 2009 Investment Priorities Plan (IPP) that lists business projects qualified for tax incentives from the government remains unsigned nearly after a quarter has passed into the year earning howls of frustration from the business sector which is currently reeling from a global recession.

The Board of Investments (BoI) expected Malacañang’s approval of the yearly list by the end of last month but petitions from various sectors for changes in the list that Malacañang ordered to be heard delayed its signing, Trade and Industry Secretary Peter Favila said.

Favila said the BoI had to conduct new hearings for the late petitions despite the BoI completing all public hearings along with involved government agencies on the list as early as February this year.

“The IPP has been completed and the President has to sign it,” Favila said.

Favila, however, declined to explain what specific areas of the draft IPP were changed during the Malacañang-initiated hearings.

Favila was also asked if the President will sign the IPP before she leaves for Egypt today but he quipped “I do not ask the President for commitment.”

Initially, the BoI said the 2009 IPP focuses on the granting of incentives to all domestic micro, small and medium enterprises that would include the smallest type of projects such as sari-sari stores and three-wheel vehicles operators.

The scheme is part of plans drafted by the BoI along with other government agencies in line with a directive from the Arroyo administration to safeguard jobs and attract investments while the country suffers from the effects of the global financial slowdown.

BoI managing head and Trade Undersecretary Elmer Hernandez earlier said the new IPP may include new types of incentives that are still in the process of discussions by the IPP inter-agency committee.

[raivo pommer-eesti.]

The long awaited 2009 Investment Priorities Plan (IPP) that lists business projects qualified for tax incentives from the government remains unsigned nearly after a quarter has passed into the year earning howls of frustration from the business sector which is currently reeling from a global recession.

The Board of Investments (BoI) expected Malacañang’s approval of the yearly list by the end of last month but petitions from various sectors for changes in the list that Malacañang ordered to be heard delayed its signing, Trade and Industry Secretary Peter Favila said.

Favila said the BoI had to conduct new hearings for the late petitions despite the BoI completing all public hearings along with involved government agencies on the list as early as February this year.

“The IPP has been completed and the President has to sign it,” Favila said.

Favila, however, declined to explain what specific areas of the draft IPP were changed during the Malacañang-initiated hearings.

Favila was also asked if the President will sign the IPP before she leaves for Egypt today but he quipped “I do not ask the President for commitment.”

Initially, the BoI said the 2009 IPP focuses on the granting of incentives to all domestic micro, small and medium enterprises that would include the smallest type of projects such as sari-sari stores and three-wheel vehicles operators.

The scheme is part of plans drafted by the BoI along with other government agencies in line with a directive from the Arroyo administration to safeguard jobs and attract investments while the country suffers from the effects of the global financial slowdown.

BoI managing head and Trade Undersecretary Elmer Hernandez earlier said the new IPP may include new types of incentives that are still in the process of discussions by the IPP inter-agency committee.

[raivo pommer-eesti.]

Metrobank global economic woes

METROPOLITAN Bank & Trust Co. said loan growth would weaken this year amid the global economic downturn.

On the sidelines of the lender’s stockholders’ meeting, Jette Gamboa, Metrobank head of investor relations, said the growth of the bank’s lending business would slow to between 5 percent and 8 percent this year from 17 percent last year.

“The global crisis is not yet over. We don’t know what is going to happen. This is not the time to take in more risk. We will have a tempered approach to credit,” Gamboa said.

The company expects consumer lending to grow by double digits but sees a more modest corporate lending business this year.

If the situation worsens, Gamboa said that it is likely that credit defaults would ensue and asset quality would deteriorate. “[But], what we would like to emphasize is we have built our systems over the last five years centered on credit excellence and risk management,” she added.

The official said the bank’s bad loan ratio however would go down to 4 percent this year from 4.5 percent last year.

[raivo pommer-www.google.fi]

MAY DAY FINANCE

Hundreds of thousands of European workers feeling the pinch of the economic crisis rallied at May Day protests Friday from Moscow to Berlin to Istanbul.

Violence and clashes between police and angry protesters disrupted some events, including in Greece, Germany and Turkey. But overall participation fell short of what many countries' unions had hoped for on May Day, a public holiday in many countries that has long celebrated the social and economic achievements of labor movements.

Many of the protesters complained about rising unemployment and lost benefits, but few specifics appeared to emerge from the demonstrations about what governments should be doing to fight the global crisis.

In Paris, fractious French labor unions came together for the first time in decades to stage a joint march that ended at the Place de la Bastille. Up to 300 smaller demonstrations were planned across France, and police said turnout in Strasbourg, Nancy, Metz and Besancon was many times higher than last year's May Day events.

[raivo pommer-eesti.]

Als der Berliner Historiker Ernst Nolte 1974 ein umfangreiches Buch mit dem Titel „Deutschland und der Kalte Krieg“ erscheinen ließ, das die Nachkriegszeit einer weltgeschichtlichen Deutung in ideenpolitischen Begriffen zuführte, rief es bei einigen Rezensenten Verwunderung hervor, dass der Verfasser seine Betrachtung über die Gründung der beiden deutschen Staaten durch einen Exkurs unter der Überschrift „Parallele und Kontrast: Israel“ ergänzte. Der amerikanische Historiker Charles Maier nahm den „seltsamen Abschnitt“ immerhin als Beleg dafür, dass das idealisierende Verfahren von Noltes philosophischer Geschichtsschreibung mit ihren überraschenden Gegenüberstellungen in Raum und Zeit zum Nachdenken anrege.

Seine Methode hatte Nolte schon mit dem ersten Buch, dem als Schlüsselwerk zeithistorischer Reflexion gefeierten „Faschismus in seiner Epoche“ von 1963, zum Außenseiter gemacht. Durch den „Historikerstreit“ von 1986 ist er sozial und politisch zum Paria geworden. Umso interessanter, dass Maier 1974 gerade in Noltes Haltung zu dem Thema, über das es 1986 zu seiner Verbannung aus der Geistesrepublik kam, etwas Repräsentatives, für die Intellektuellen der Bundesrepublik Charakteristisches erkannte: „Nolte hat mit anderen Deutschen eine philosemitische, aber trübe [,murky'] Neigung zur Beschäftigung mit der jüdisch-israelischen Rolle gemein.“ In der Tat ließ sich philosemitisch lesen, wie Nolte 1974 den Kontrast zwischen der Bundesrepublik und Israel akzentuierte: In Israel hatte sich eine Armee einen Staat geschaffen, der Deutschland, das seiner militärisch-staatlichen Tradition hatte abschwören müssen, als Vorbild der Selbstbehauptung dienen mochte.

[raivo pommer-www.google.fi]

Better news on manufacturing in Europe, China and India, and positive signs on U.S. home sales and construction raised hopes on
Monday that the deepest economic slump in decades may have bottomed out.

Manufacturing in Europe declined at its slowest pace in six months, and grew in China and India in April, while pending sales of existing U.S. homes rose unexpectedly in March and U.S. construction spending rose a slim 0.3 percent the same month, its first increase since September.

A top U.S. Federal Reserve official said the recession is fading and growth will resume later this year.

"While overall activity is still contracting, it now appears as if the pace of contraction is diminishing, and at some point later this year, activity will bottom out and begin expanding again," Richmond Federal Reserve President Jeffrey Lacker said in a speech to business leaders.

European and U.S. shares rose -- Wall Street's leading indexes jumped 2.5 percent or more as investors bet the government's "stress tests" won't be bad for banks and hoped the housing data meant the recession is ending. The S&P 500 topped the psychologically important 900 level for the first time since early January.

[raivo pommer-eesti.]

German sportswear maker Adidas said yesterday its first quarter net profit fell 97 per cent as the economic crisis crimped the company's sales, especially in North America.

The Herzogenaurach-based company said net profit for the January-March period fell to just €5 million ($11.5 million) from €169 million in the first quarter of 2008.

Sales for the period fell 2 per cent to €2.58 billion from €2.62 billion in the first quarter of 2008.

The company, whose brands include Reebok and TaylorMade Adidas Golf products, said it expects sales to decrease at a low to mid-single digit rate this year.

The results pushed Adidas' stock more than 11 per cent lower to €26.21 in Frankfurt trading.

"We've faced a number of economic and market challenges in the first quarter of 2009," said Herbert Hainer, Adidas' chief executive.

"Our results have been materially affected by higher input prices, currency devaluation effects and restructuring costs," Hainer said.

[raivo pommer-eesti.]

US-Notenbank

Fed hat den jüngsten Banken-Stresstest gegen Kritik verteidigt. Die Reaktion der Finanzmärkte habe gezeigt, dass die Prüfung als ein verlässlicher Indikator für die vergleichweise gute Verfassung des US-Bankensystems angesehen werde, sagte der Präsident der Federal Reserve von Richmont, Jeffrey Lacker. Der Test erleichtere es den Banken, sich nun auch ohne staatliche Hilfe zu rekapitalisieren

Am Wochenende war das Verfahren kritisiert worden. Das Wall Street Journal hatte berichtet, die ursprünglich von der Fed errechneten Zahlen hätten deutlich über denen des Berichts gelegen. Die errechneten Kapitallücken wurden nach Protesten der betroffenen Banken im Zuge von Verhandlungen "geschrumpft". Die Financial Times hatte sogar über ein angebliches Geheimabkommen zwischen dem Staat und den Kreditinstituten berichtet.

Aktien im Höhenflug

Im Fall der Citigroup sei der diagnostizierte Kapitalbedarf nach Angaben des Wall Street Journals von 35 Milliarden Dollar auf fünf Milliarden Dollar heruntergehandelt worden. Zudem räumte ein Angehöriger der US-Aufsichtsbehörden ein, erst die jüngste Rally am Aktienmarkt habe passable Ergebnisse ermöglicht.

Mit dem Test überprüfte die US-Regierung, wie viel Geld 19 Großbanken benötigen, falls sich die Rezession weiter verschärft. Die meisten Institute schnitten dabei besser ab als befürchtet: Zehn von 19 Banken müssen ihr Kapital um insgesamt 75 Milliarden Dollar aufstocken und wollen die Mittel dazu größtenteils aus eigener Kraft auftreiben.

Finanzaktien reagierten am Freitag weltweit mit einem Freudensprung auf die Testergebnisse, obwohl die Prüfung von Anfang an umstritten war und von Kritikern als PR-Aktion der Regierung verschmäht wurde. Vielen Experten waren die Kriterien zu lasch, den Banken selbst dagegen zu strikt.

[raivo pommer-eesti.]

Mit 60 Milliarden Euro will die Notenbank dem Pfandbriefmarkt der Europäischen Währungsunion unter die Arme greifen.

Mit ihrem Aufkaufprogramm, also der Abschöpfung von Papieren am Sekundär- und womöglich auch am Primärmarkt, wird die EZB das mittel- und langfristige Renditeniveau in diesem Marktsegment drücken, mithin indirekt das Zinsniveau lang laufender Baukredite senken.

Zu den gedeckten Bankschuldverschreibungen gehören allen voran die deutschen Pfandbriefe und mit Hypotheken besicherte Covered Bonds aus anderen Ländern. Sie erfreuten sich im vergangenen Jahr trotz der dramatischen Finanzkrise immer noch einer besseren Nachfrage und verhielten sich am Markt tendenziell stabiler als mit Hypotheken besicherte, strukturierte Kreditprodukte (MBS) und in weiteren Verschachtelungen an den Markt gestreute Kreditprodukte (CDO), deren Sekundärmarkt nahezu komplett zusammenbrach.

Gerade weil Banken jedoch mit anhaltendem Kapitalmangel kämpfen und ihnen die Möglichkeiten des Abverkaufs von Kreditrisiken an die Märkte strukturierter Kreditpapiere derzeit noch verwehrt sind, ist die Stellung des Marktes für Covered Bonds und Pfandbriefe so wichtig, um das Bau- und Hypothekengeschäft in Schwung zu halten. Die Bedeutung zeigte sich kürzlich darin, dass die Deutsche Bank eine Pfandbrief-Lizenz beantragt hat.

[raivo pommer-eesti.]

Mexikanischer Peso

Als die Schweinegrippe in Mexiko ausbrach, geriet der Peso Ende April kurzfristig unter Druck. Inzwischen beginnt sich nicht nur das Alltagsleben wieder zu normalisieren. Auch Mexikos Landeswährung ist dabei, die Kursverluste auszubügeln.

Als Stütze erweisen sich mehrere Faktoren. So hilft die größere Risikobereitschaft, aber auch die sich mehrenden Zeichen einer konjunkturelle Stabilisierung in Amerika. Als am Freitag der Arbeitsmarktbericht besser ausfiel als erwartet, legte auch der Peso auf 13,0316 Peso je Dollar zu. Insgesamt betrug das Wochenplus 5,7 Prozent, was die beste Wertentwicklung unter den lateinamerikanischen Währungen war. Auch im Verhältnis zum Euro wird die Notiz derzeit deutlich entfernt von dem im März markierten Tief von 19,55 Peso gehandelt.

Mexiko liefert rund 80 Prozent seiner Exporte in die Vereinigten Staaten. Und die Nachfrage aus Amerika ist wichtiger denn je, befürchtet das Finanzministerium unter Einberechnung der negativen Effekte der Schweingrippe doch damit, dass die Wirtschaft in diesem Jahr um 4,1 Prozent schrumpft.

[raivo pommer-eesti.]

Die größte britische Bank HSBC sieht sich nach einem positiven Jahresstart für weitere Herausforderungen gut aufgestellt. Abschreibungen und Kreditrücklagen seien im Auftaktquartal 2009 im Vergleich zum Schlussquartal vergangenen Jahres zurückgegangen.

Das teilte das Institut am Montag in London mit. Erträge sowie der Vorsteuergewinn vor Neubewertung von Krediten hätten sich zwischen Januar und März erholt. Grund sei vor allem ein starkes Geschäft im Investmentbanking, das sich auch im April weiter fortgesetzt habe. Die Kernkapitalquote lag Ende März bei 9,9 Prozent.

Gegenüber dem Vorjahresquartal waren Abschreibungen und Risikovorsorge allerdings deutlich angestiegen, der Vorsteuergewinn vor der Neubewertung von Krediten lag unter dem Vergleichswert. HSBC- Chef Stephen Green sagte, das Umfeld sei weiterhin unsicher und Signale aus der Wirtschaft seien gemischt. Es gebe allerdings einige Anzeichen für eine vorsichtige Erholung.

[raivo pommer-eesti.]

Der weltgrößte Reisekonzern TUI hat im ersten Quartal dank des Verkaufs der Containerreederei Hapag-Lloyd gut eine halbe Milliarde Euro verdient. Der den TUI-Aktionären zustehende Überschuss belief sich auf 553,1 Millionen Euro, wie das MDAX-Unternehmen in Hannover mitteilte.

Ohne den Verkaufserlös von knapp einer Milliarde Euro hätte TUI allerdings deutlich im Minus abgeschlossen. Auch für das Gesamtjahr rechnet der Vorstand dank des Sondererlöses mit einem deutlich verbesserten Konzernergebnis.

In der Touristik erwartet das Management vor Steuern, Zinsen und Abschreibungen auf Unternehmenswerte (EBITA) und Sondereffekten im Jahr 2009 ein stabiles Ergebnis. Hapag-Lloyd, die nur noch zu 43,33 Prozent zum Konzern gehört, dürfte nach dem Sondereffekt zum Jahresbeginn ab dem zweiten Quartal ein negatives Ergebnis abliefern, hieß es.

[raivo pommer-eesti.]

- Nach Milliardenverlusten im vergangenen Jahr hat die Commerzbank-Tochter Eurohypo einem Zeitungsbericht zufolge im ersten Quartal 2009 wieder einen Gewinn erzielt.

Dazu habe vor allem die Staatsfinanzierungssparte beigetragen, in der ein Gewinn in niedriger dreistelliger Millionenhöhe angefallen sei, berichtet das «Handelsblatt» (Montag) unter Berufung auf Finanzkreise. Die Verluste der Gewerbeimmobiliensparte seien niedriger gewesen. Der Commerzbank- Konzern habe in dem Geschäftsfeld, das von der Eurohypo dominiert werde, 54 Millionen Euro verloren.

Noch 2008 habe die Eurohypo ihrer Mutter Commerzbank einen Milliardenverlust eingebracht. Hintergrund seien starke Kursverluste bei Staatsanleihen gewesen. Nun wirkten die Stabilisierung in den Finanzmärkten und die gewinnträchtige Auflösung eines Absicherungsgeschäfts (Total Return Swaps) für US-Kommunen in die andere Richtung. Auf Druck der EU-Wettbewerbsbehörde muss sich die Commerzbank von ihrer Tochter Eurohypo trennen.

[raivo pommer-eesti.]

Belastet von Gewinnmitnahmen hat der deutsche Aktienmarkt Kursverluste verbucht. Damit rückt für den DAX die Marke von 5.000 Zählern erst einmal wieder aus dem Blick, betonten Händler, nachdem der Leitindex am Freitag noch etwas unter dieser Schwelle bei 4.913,90 Punkten geschlossen hatte.

Gegen Mittag fiel der DAX um 1,29 Prozent auf 4.850,48 Punkte, und der MDAX sank um 3,28 Prozent auf 5.714,27 Zähler. Für den Technologiewerte-Index TecDAX ging es um 2,90 Prozent auf 604,26 Zähler nach unten.

Frank Geilfuß, Marktanalyst beim Berliner Bankhaus Löbbecke, sagte: "Nach den jüngsten Kursgewinnen machen die Anleger zum Wochenbeginn erst einmal Kasse." Zudem habe sich die Stimmung besonders für die Finanzwerte eingetrübt und hiervon belastet würden nun auch die US-Märkte zur Eröffnung im Minus erwartet. In den USA haben sich aktuell mehr Menschen mit dem Schweinegrippe-Virus infiziert als in Mexiko, fuhr der Experte fort, und dies verunsichere die Anleger ebenfalls.

Am DAX-Ende verloren die Titel der Commerzbank 8,53 Prozent auf 5,735 Euro. "Die Luft nach oben ist erst einmal raus", resümierte Sebastian Reuter, Analyst bei Hauck & Aufhäuser Privatbankiers, die Kursentwicklung. Die Papiere haben sich seit ihrem Tief Anfang März bei 2,27 Euro mittlerweile mehr als verdoppelt.

Zudem hatte das "Wall Street Journal" am Wochenende berichtet, die 19 führenden US-Banken bräuchten noch mehr frisches Kapital als die laut Stress-Test verlangten 75 Milliarden Dollar. Die US-Notenbank (Fed) habe bei der Prüfung ursprünglich weitaus größere Kapitallücken festgestellt als schließlich bekanntgeben worden sei, berichtete das Blatt. Titel der Münchener Rück fielen indes um 3,49 Prozent auf 98,30 Euro.

Ebenfalls gemieden wurden die Aktien von MAN, die um 4,43 Prozent auf 46,78 Euro absackten. In dem Schmiergeldskandal des Münchner Maschinen- und Nutzfahrzeugkonzerns richten sich nach Medienangaben die staatsanwaltschaftlichen Ermittlungen auch gegen Führungskräfte. Aktien von K+S verloren derweil 3,16 Prozent auf 48,42 Euro.

Sowohl die UBS als auch Morgan Stanley hatten sich negativ zu dem Düngemittel- und Salzproduzenten geäußert. Die Analysten prognostizieren, dass der in den nächsten drei Monaten erwartete chinesische Vertragsabschluss deutlich schlechter ausfallen dürfte als derzeit am Markt prognostiziert.

Im MDAX zählten die Titel von TUI nach Zahlen mit minus 5,59 Prozent auf 7,60 Euro zu den größten Verlierern. Das Zahlenwerk des Reiseriesen fiel nach Einschätzung von Börsianern schwächer als erwartet aus - und das, obwohl der Verkauf der Containerreederei Hapag-Lloyd bereits eingerechnet sei. Zudem habe der Ausblick negativ überrascht.

Die Papiere von Leoni gerieten nach ebenfalls mit Enttäuschung aufgenommen Zahlen zunächst ebenfalls deutlich unter Druck, konnten sich dann aber etwas erholen und sanken zuletzt nur noch um 1,69 Prozent auf 11,60 Euro. Analyst Jürgen Pieper vom Bankhaus Metzler sieht als einzige kleine Hoffnungszeichen die Aussagen, dass es im März etwas besser gelaufen sei, als im Januar und Februar 2009.

[raivo pommer-eesti.]

American Airlines says it will let frequent fliers use miles to book one-way trips for half the miles of a round trip. The airline will also let customers redeem miles to fly one leg of a round trip in first-class and fewer miles to fly in coach on the other leg. Officials at American, which developed the first frequent-flier program nearly three decades ago, plans to announce the changes Monday and put them into effect shortly. They say American is the first major U.S....

[raivo pommer-eesti.]

Es wird nicht so einfach für die Banken, ihren Sondermüll der Finanzkrise auf Kosten der Steuerzahler zu entsorgen - die Bundesregierung hat ihr geplantes Modell zur Schaffung einer Sonderinstitution ("Bad Bank") noch einmal verändert.

Nun sollen die Aktionäre der betroffenen Banken mehr Lasten tragen. Die Anteilseigner würden demnach jährlich mit ihrer Dividende für den Wertverlust von ausgelagerten toxischen Wertpapieren geradestehen. Das geht aus dem entsprechenden Gesetzentwurf hervor, der der Nachrichtenagentur Reuters vorliegt.

Für die Aktionäre bedeutet das: Die Dividenden könnten über Jahrzehnte geschmälert werden - und die Gründung einer Bad Bank könnte die Geldinstitute mit einer milliardenteuren Pauschalabwertung der Schrottpapiere belasten.

[raivo pommer-eesti.]

Auf der Streckbank der großen Krise

In Deutschland ist die Hypo Real Estate zum Inbegriff der Krisenbank geworden. Das Institut ging ohne Not Milliardenrisiken ein und musste mit bisher 102 Milliarden Euro an Staatsgeld und -garantien gestützt werden. Deshalb bekam es auch den Titel "Drecksbank" verliehen - von Deutschlands höchstem Finanzaufseher Jochen Sanio höchstpersönlich.
Die globale Finanzkrise setzte dem Treiben ein abruptes Ende und bescherte der Bundesregierung ein neues Leitmotiv. Was für Adenauer die Deutschland AG war, ist für Merkel die systemrelevante Bank: Nur wenn es unseren Banken gut geht können wir unseren Wohlstand erhalten.

Unter dieser Annahme eilt die Regierung einer Bank nach der anderen zu Hilfe. Sie spannt einen nationalen Rettungsschirm auf, sie lässt die Bilanzierungsregeln lockern und breitet ein Netz aus, in das die Institute ihre Schrottpapiere abwerfen sollen. Sie gibt das Geld der Steuerzahler aus, weil sie glaubt, nur so ließe sich die Kernschmelze des Finanzsystems - und damit ein Absturz der gesamten Wirtschaft - verhindern.

Und stets heißt es: Die Hilfsaktionen seien gar nicht so teuer. Der größte Teil der Milliarden, die der Staat bereit stelle, seien ja Garantien - also gar kein richtiges Geld. Zahlen müsse der Staat nur dann, wenn die Sache schief gehe. Und die staatlichen Retter tun so, als ob sie diesen "worst case", diese denkbar schlechteste Entwicklung, tatsächlich verhindern können.

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