Sameer Khatiwada, a former student, writes in response to this, and it is worth highlighting it:
We at the International Labour Organization (ILO) have been keeping track of the stimulus efforts of 40 countries (including the G20) for our annual report and other work. While I agree with most of Gallagher's conclusions, there are factual inaccuracies in their work. Here is my quick response (I also posted comments on your blog):
1) The global fiscal stimulus effort as a percentage of GDP is 3.16 percent of the world GDP, not 5.5 percent. Our number is based on 30 countries that have announced stimulus packages. For your reference, I have attached a word file with two tables.
2) The BU spreadsheet has one main problem: it mixes fiscal and financial stimulus for several countries like Russia, Saudi Arabia, and South Africa and does not mix the two types of efforts (only reports fiscal package) for countries like the US and the UK. Moreover, comparing the US and UK plan of $787 billion and £25.6 billion (fiscal only) respectively to Gallagher's numbers (that combine financial and fiscal) for countries like Russia and South Africa and other developing countries, is like comparing apples and oranges.
3) The best way to keep track of stimulus efforts is to track financial efforts (bank injections, buying assets, loan guarantees etc.) separately from fiscal efforts (public spending on goods and services, tax cuts, spending etc.). We have done this and hence avoided confusions and mis-representations.
Briefly about our ongoing work on the rescue efforts: we have divided government efforts into financial, monetary, and fiscal. We talk at length about each efforts, but focussing more on fiscal efforts. We compare fiscal and financial efforts (quantitatively and qualitatively). Furthermore, we look at the labour market efforts (active and passive measures) by different countries in response to the crisis. Lastly, we have put together country boxes for the G20 that go into the details of each country's fiscal efforts.
I agree that it is absolutely essential to separate the financial packages from the fiscal ones. The former are essentially asset swaps, the spending effects of which, if any, are indirect. The fiscal packages, meanwhile, are intended to spur spending directly.
raivo pommer
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Krise China
Nun, von den amerikanischen Banken kommen seit einiger Zeit eher Nachrichten, von denen ich glaube, dass sie das Ende der Krise andeuten könnten. Und wenn der Finanzmarkt wieder beginnt zu funktionieren, kehrt auch das so wichtige Vertrauen zurück. Nicht zuletzt beginnt in China das riesige Konjunkturprogramm, das dort aufgelegt worden ist, zu greifen. So waren die Chinesen im Januar schon wieder Nettoimporteur von Aluminium. Und die zuletzt abgestürzten Frachtraten im Schiffsverkehr steigen wieder.
Bleiben wir zunächst bei den Banken: Was ist daran hoffnungsvoll, wenn die Citigroup nur durch eine signifikante Beteiligung des amerikanischen Staates aufgefangen werden kann und sich die 20 größten Institute des Landes einer Überprüfung unterziehen müssen, um ein Gefühl dafür zu bekommen, was passiert, wenn alles noch viel schlimmer wird?
Posted by: chi | March 03, 2009 at 11:23 AM
raivo pommer
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Ostgeld krisis
Länder vor der Pleite: Der ungarische Forint, der polnische Zloty, die tschechische Krone und der rumänische Lei stehen massiv unter Druck. EU-Währungskommissar Almunia warnt bereits vor dem Schlimmsten.
Die Europäische Union wappnet sich gegen mögliche Staatsbankrotte in einzelnen Mitgliedsländern. "Wir sind politisch und wirtschaftlich darauf eingerichtet, uns diesem Krisenszenario zu stellen", sagte EU-Währungskommissar Joaquin Almunia am Dienstag in Brüssel. Die Kommission plant kein generelles Hilfspaket, sondern will von Fall zu Fall entscheiden.
Posted by: ost | March 03, 2009 at 01:41 PM
Considering the nature of the political debate in the United States, I think it might also be prudent to separate tax oriented fiscal stimuli from spending oriented.
Separating the two might also shed some light on whether tax cuts are actually more likely to be affected by recessionary high savings rates than direct spending.
For practical international policy purposes it will be prudent to have an idea about whether tax cuts or spending works better in certain regions, economies, and/or institutional arrangements.
Even if taxes and spending are lumped together, any accurate accounting of the US fiscal stimulus should subtract about $70 billion in AMT associated tax cuts considering they aren't new - only a continuation of the annual AMT exemption.
Posted by: Joseph Vavrus | March 03, 2009 at 04:53 PM
Hi there
I was wandering what your 'filters' were for including/excluding stimulus packages?
I was doing some online reading which highlighted different numbers to the ones you've quoted in the Word doc. For example, by my understanding Brazil's stimulus package - in the form of accelerated spending on the "Accelerated Growth Programme" could be calculated at $59bn. I came to this figure by looking at the differential between already announced figures for the programme 504 billion reais and the increased amount announced (646 billion reais). I took the differential, 142 billion reais ($59b). Even if I were to divide this across all 4 years (2007 - 2010) it makes for US$14.25bn / per year.
Does that make sense? It is wildly different to the $3.6bn figure you've quoted. I presume it to mean that somewhere you've made a base assumption that discounts this spending. What have I missed?
Thanks
David
Note, my primary source was this article here: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=apFPtgBkGo.U
Posted by: David Reinhardt | March 04, 2009 at 05:22 AM
Hi David,
Brazil announced a stimulus package to help its auto sector (which accounts for 5 percent of its GDP), and this is the only explicitly announced fiscal stimulus. And it turns out to be 0.2 percent of its GDP.
It is important to note that there are several issues concerning the rescue packages. First, the breakdown of rescue efforts in terms of old spending (already on the pipeline) and new spending is uncertain and unclear. Second, the time-horizon in which the stimulus package will be administered is also questionable. For some countries like the U.K., Germany and China, we know that the time-frame is two years (2009-10), but for most countries, the time frame of new spending measures is not clear. Third, most countries have announced fiscal rescue packages different from their financial rescue packages, but there is a tendency to count in financial help to different sectors (like loan guarantees) as part of the fiscal package. And fourth, some countries have announced stimulus spending embedded in their annual budgets, which makes it difficult in separating new spending from the old ones.
Hope this helps,
Sameer
Posted by: Sameer Khatiwada | March 04, 2009 at 08:28 AM
Raivo Pommer
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Essen bank krise
Die Frankfurter Sparkasse ist bereit, für einen bestimmten Kreis von Kunden einen Teil des Schadens zu übernehmen, der ihnen durch den Kauf von Lehman-Zertifikaten entstanden ist. „In einigen wenigen wirtschaftlichen Härtefällen bieten wir unseren Kunden aus Kulanzgründen eine Beteiligung am entstandenen finanziellen Schaden an“, äußerte ein Sprecher des zur Landesbank Hessen-Thüringen zählenden Kreditinstituts auf Anfrage. Das Wort „Entschädigung“ vermied er.
Weiter sagte der Sprecher, bis Ende April wolle die Frankfurter Sparkasse die Prüfung jedes Einzelfalls beenden. Die ersten Schreiben an Kunden seien am Dienstag versandt worden. „In diesen Briefen stellen wir als Ergebnis unserer bisherigen Prüfungen fest, dass unsere Kunden aus unserer Sicht im Rahmen der anleger- und anlagegerechten Beratung auf die bestehenden Chancen und Risiken hingewiesen worden sind, so dass keine Entschädigungszahlung angeboten wird.“
Posted by: frank | March 04, 2009 at 10:48 AM
The ILO is correct to point out that in two cases (Russia and South
Africa) figures on bank bailouts crept into our entries. I fully agree
that these are categorically a separate manner. They have been deleted
from our list. The spreadsheet downloadable on this page now reflects
those changes. We thank Sameer Khatiwada for pointing this out. Their
list is a good one and quite complete. The only major packages that
seem to be missing is the EU-wide plan and Japan's second plan.
The UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean has
conducted the only comprehensive tabulation I have seen of both fiscal
stimuli and financial bailouts, and they separate these in different
columns (see their link in the comments above).
Aside from the two bailouts and the EU-Japan plans, in our calculations we also
used a $54 trillion (World Bank) estimate for global GDP. Subtract the
two bailouts, add the EU plan, and use the higher ILO denominator and
our two estimates both reveal an estimate of global stimulus spending in
the 3 percent of GDP range.
In either case, readers should note that in most of the countries,
stimulus funds will not all be discharged in the first year. All this
refines and reinforces the consistent finding that the global response
to the financial crisis is quite small.
Posted by: gallagher | March 04, 2009 at 11:01 AM
I have heard the “cash that sits on the sideline” financing about a hundred recoveries and stimulus packages even though that cash on the sidelines is not cash in mattresses and is actually already deployed in treasury paper... and the banks are in a deleveraging mode.
I have also heard the “two trillions of China” financing at least a hundred different sectors and plans, in China and abroad.
In this respect I would only try to get a figure on stimulus when it has actually been financed and disbursed... meanwhile it might just amount to a big nothing.
What if the market suddenly finds the safe-haven too crowded for its liking?
Posted by: Per Kurowski | March 04, 2009 at 09:07 PM
Raivo Pommer
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Gegen krise
Die norddeutschen Länder wollen gemeinsam beim Bund für ihre Verkehrsprojekte kämpfen. Hamburgs Bürgermeister Ole von Beust (CDU) sagte heute nach einem Treffen mit den Regierungschefs von Schleswig-Holstein, Niedersachsen, Bremen und Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Berlin müsse sich der Hinterlandanbindung der Häfen und der Infrastruktur mehr widmen: "Wichtig ist uns, dass der Bund verstärkt einsteigt." Aus dem Konjunkturprogramm I sei nicht genug angekommen. "Da geht es darum, das aufzustocken." Bremens Bürgermeister Jens Böhrnsen (SPD) betonte: "Dazu gehört auch, dass wir (...) deutlich machen, dass der Anteil des Bundes an Hafeninvestitionen und vor allem auch an der Hafenunterhaltung viel zu gering ist."
Posted by: jens story | March 05, 2009 at 05:16 PM
In addition to explicit fiscal stimulus there are at least two additional sources of implicit stimulus - the automatic stabilisers built into most developed-government policy, and the huge fall in oil prices of the last nine months. In addition there is some asset-price support coming from unconventional sources too. The total may be more than $6 trillion per annum, much more than the total official stimulus. Some details in my article here: http://www.knowingandmaking.com/2009/03/automatic-stimulus.html
Posted by: Leigh Caldwell | March 06, 2009 at 06:00 AM
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Schwarze geld
Die Schweizer Regierung will am Bankgeheimnis vorerst nicht rütteln. Sie bietet allerdings Gespräche über die anonyme Zinsbesteuerung, wie sie schon mit der EU besteht, und die Amtshilfe an. Nach einer Regierungssitzung sagte Bundespräsident und Finanzminister Hans-Rudolf Merz, die Schweiz habe viele völkerrechtliche Verträge geschlossen, die eine Grundlage für den Informationsaustausch mit anderen Staaten böten. Mit einer Expertengruppe soll diese Zusammenarbeit über „Steuerdelikte“ verstärkt werden, kündigte Merz an. Der Finanzplatz dürfe keine Wettbewerbsnachteile erleiden. Zugleich schloss der Finanzminister nicht aus, dass die Schweiz auf eine „schwarze Liste“ geraten könne.
Die Schweiz leistet Amtshilfe nur bei mutmaßlichem Steuerbetrug, nicht jedoch bei Steuerhinterziehung. Der Begriff „Steuerdelikt“, den Merz jetzt verwendete, lässt den weiteren Weg offen. Merz hatte vor wenigen Tagen gesagt, das Bankgeheimnis solle „weiterentwickelt“ werden. Mit ihrem Gesprächsangebot versucht die Regierung dem wachsenden internationalen Druck zu begegnen. In der Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise haben die Kritiker vermehrt Gehör gefunden, welche die „Steueroase“ Schweiz austrocknen wollen. So erwägen die wichtigsten Industrie- und Schwellenländer (G-20) unter Führung der Vereinigten Staaten, Großbritanniens, Frankreichs und Deutschlands entsprechende Beschlüsse auf ihrem Weltfinanzgipfel am 2. April in London. Eine Teilnahme der Schweiz wurde abgelehnt.
Posted by: hans merz story | March 06, 2009 at 02:24 PM
Raivo Pommer
[email protected]
LBBW-Bank krisehilfe
Die Landesbank Baden-Württemberg (LBBW) wird fünf Milliarden Euro bekommen, um die Folgen der Finanzkrise abzufedern - in Form einer Kapitalerhöhung. Doch möglicherweise braucht Deutschlands größte Landesbank noch mehr Hilfe. Einem Bericht der Schwäbischen Zeitung zufolge benötigt das Institut zur Absicherung von risikobehafteten Papieren Garantien in Höhe von 16 Milliarden Euro. Die Bank wollte dazu am Freitag keine Stellung nehmen.
SPD-Fraktionschef Claus Schmiedel, der Mitglied im LBBW-Verwaltungsrat ist, sagte: "Die Zahl ist aus der Luft gegriffen." Man müsse sich darauf konzentrieren, nur die stark schwankenden Papiere abzusichern. "Denn jede zusätzliche Abschirmung kostet Geld und belastet die Gewinne." Den Umfang wollte er nicht nennen.
Wie die Zeitung aus der Bank nahestehenden Kreisen erfuhr, sollen die Papiere aus dem Kreditersatzgeschäft, die großen Schwankungen unterworfen sind, in eine Zweckgesellschaft ausgegliedert werden. Finanzkreisen zufolge soll es sich bei dem Volumen um etliche Milliarden handeln. Dadurch sollen sie die Bilanz der LBBW nicht mehr belasten.
Posted by: panik | March 06, 2009 at 07:32 PM
The ECFIN DG of the European Commission has a nice summary of financial rescue measures taken by the member countries.
http://europa.eu/rapid/pressReleasesAction.do?reference=MEMO/08/717&format=HTML&aged=0&language=EN&guiLanguage=en
Posted by: Marko Klasnja | March 11, 2009 at 02:12 PM
And there is also the overview of the fiscal stimulus measures by the EU members:
http://ec.europa.eu/commission_barroso/president/pdf/press_20090304_annx_en.pdf
Posted by: Marko Klasnja | March 11, 2009 at 02:21 PM
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[email protected]
OECD-Papiergeld
Der Satz ist kryptisch: Liechtenstein akzeptiere die OECD-Standards für Transparenz und Informationsaustausch in Steuerfragen und unterstütze die internationalen Maßnahmen gegen die Nichteinhaltung von Steuergesetzen. So teilte es die Regierung des Fürstentums mit. Hinter diesem Satz verbirgt sich jedoch eine echte Revoulution: Liechtenstein beugt sich dem internationalen Druck - und hebt sein striktes Bankgeheimnis teilweise auf. Damit will das kleine Land sein Image von der unkooperativen Steueroase abstreifen.
Mit den USA hat das Fürstentum bereits ein Abkommen geschlossen, wonach Informationen in Steuerfragen ausgetauscht werden können. Es tritt 2010 in Kraft. Damit wird deutlich: Das Land wird sich im Kampf gegen die internationale Steuerflucht künftig nicht mehr auf das Bankgeheimnis berufen.
Seit Juni 2000 steht Liechtenstein auf der OECD-Liste der Steueroasen. Auf dieser schwarzen Liste zu finden sind derzeit auch Andorra und Monaco. Schärfster Kritiker des Liechtensteiner Bankgeheimnisses ist Deutschland. Denn viele Deutsche haben versucht, über den Umweg Liechtenstein dem deutschen Fiskus Steuergeld vorzuenthalten. Prominentester Steuersünder war der ehemalige Postchef Klaus Zumwinkel. Dieser wurde im Januar vom Landgericht Bochum wegen Steuerhinterziehung zu zwei Jahren Gefängnis auf Bewährung und einer Geldstrafe verurteilt.
Posted by: zumwinkel story | March 12, 2009 at 09:07 AM
Raivo Pommer
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Die Bank von England krise
Die Bank von England hat in dieser Woche als erste große Notenbank mit einer Politik der direkten Ausweitung der Geldmenge (quantitative Lockerung) begonnen. Ihre erste Auktion, in der sie für 2 Milliarden Pfund britische Anleihen (Gilts) von Investoren kaufte, wurde am Markt als voller Erfolg gewertet. So wurden der Bank von England Gilts im Wert von 10,5 Milliarden Pfund offeriert, also weit mehr, als die Notenbank kaufen wollte.
Gleichzeitig sind die Anleiherenditen britischer Staatspapiere seit Ankündigung der Politik der Mengenlockerung um mehr als einen halben Prozentpunkt gefallen - genau diesen Effekt wollte die Bank von England mit ihren Maßnahmen erreichen. Nach der Auktion lag die Rendite zehnjähriger Gilts mit 3,08 Prozent gleichauf mit der Rendite entsprechender Bundesanleihen (3,07 Prozent).
Posted by: st ollar | March 13, 2009 at 11:34 AM
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[email protected] Reform von Weltbanks
Weit mehr als die Industriestaaten trifft die weltweite Rezession nun die Entwicklungs- und Schwellenländer. Joseph Stiglitz leitet derzeit eine Kommission der Uno, die Konzepte für eine Reform der internationalen Geld- und Finanzmärkte erarbeiten soll. In Berlin traf er kürzlich Heidemarie Wieczorek-Zeul, die Bundesministerin für wirtschaftliche Zusammenarbeit und Entwicklung, die ebenfalls der Kommission angehört. Stiglitz hält Institutionen wie die Weltbank, den Internationalen Währungsfonds (IWF), aber auch Staatskonferenzen wie den G7- oder den G20-Gipfel für untauglich, die Krise zu meistern. "Wir brauchen einen Neustart", sagte er. "Die Vereinten Nationen sind die einzige Institution, die den erforderlichen Maßnahmen Nachdruck verleihen kann." Ein starker "Weltwirtschaftsrat" solle künftig über die Einhaltung globaler Spielregeln für die Wirtschaft wachen.
Dass ein solcher Rat alsbald gegründet wird, erscheint jedoch eher unwahrscheinlich, trotz des immensen Drucks durch die Wirtschaftskrise. Selbst um viel einfachere Reformen ringen die Gremien der Vereinten Nationen teils jahrelang. Ministerin Wieczorek-Zeul setzt deshalb vor allem auf die Reform von Weltbank und IWF: "Es dauert zu lange, eine neue Struktur aufzubauen."
Posted by: reform | March 14, 2009 at 07:36 AM
Grrr....
Thorstein Veblen is pissed!
The US stimulus is nowhere close to 5.5% of GDP... That's off by nearly an order of magnitude... The stimulus is over three years, not one -- that makes it 1.8%. Secondly, half of it is just plugging the state and local budget shortfalls, so the net size of the US stimulus is 1% of GDP at best...
Dani, you've got to start butting back on this wingnut stuff a little harder...
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Posted by: Thorstein Veblen | March 17, 2009 at 01:19 AM
RWE
Die Energiekonzerne RWE Power und Vattenfall haben keinen Anspruch auf eine Übertragung von Reststrommengen des stillgelegten Atomkraftwerks Mülheim-Kärlich auf die Kraftwerke Biblis A in Hessen und Brunsbüttel in Schleswig-Holstein. Das hat das Bundesverwaltungsgericht am Donnerstag entschieden. Die Leipziger Richter bestätigten damit die Vorinstanzen. Nach dem Atomgesetz dürfen die Strommengen nur auf sieben in einer amtlichen Anmerkung namentlich genannte Kernkraftwerke übertragen werden. Biblis A und Brunsbüttel werden dort nicht aufgeführt.
Bundesumweltminister Gabriel (SPD) begrüßte die Entscheidung. „Das Urteil schafft Rechtssicherheit für den weiteren Vollzug des Ausstiegsgesetzes“, teilte er mit. Der Minister appellierte an die Betreiber, seinen Vorschlag aufzugreifen und die ältesten Atomkraftwerke abzuschalten.
Posted by: raivo pommer-eesti | March 26, 2009 at 01:28 PM
Hi Sameer,
I was just reading the ILO Report "The financial and economic crisis: a decent work response", which includes you as a co-author. Given your table with numbers on fiscal measures against the crisis, I was struck to read in the report that the total amount of fiscal stimulus measures sums up to only 1,4% of global GDP (p.19). How does this match with the number of 3.16% (total fiscal package as a percentage of World GDP) indicated in the attachment to your blog comment of March 3?
Kind regards,
Werner
Posted by: Werner Raza | March 30, 2009 at 10:07 AM
Hi Werner,
The fiscal stimulus as a percentage of the world GDP is much lower in the ILO report because we took into account the time period of spending.
The blog post from March 3rd took the total spending for each country, and hence came up with the 3.16 per cent as the size of global stimulus. But as we know, the fiscal spending is not all for 2009. Hence, when we take into account the time period of spending, we see that the global stimulus in 2009 is only 1.4 per cent of the world GDP. Remember, this is only for 2009. Big countries like China, the U.S., and Germany spend most of the money only in 2010.
So basically, both the numbers are right, but the interpretation is different. (In 2009, the fiscal spending is 1.4 per cent of world GDP. But the total spending as a percentage of one year’s world GDP is 3.16 per cent.)
Sameer
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