A global survey of stimulus plans

by Kevin P. Gallagher, guest blogger

The G-20 issued a November 2008 call for a coordinated set of national responses to the global financial crisis and pledged that such responses would not be pro-cyclical in nature. With my graduate students at Boston University I conducted a survey of national stimulus packages and IMF rescue plans to examine whether these promises have been fulfilled. It seems they have not.

Our central findings:

· There have been a relatively small number of stimulus packages thus far and they don’t amount to much. The sum of these packages is a very small fraction of global GDP. Just over 20 countries have earmarked approximately $3 trillion (USD) or 0.5 5.5 percent of global GDP.

· The composition within the plans is fairly varied. Some focus infrastructure spending and tax cuts, others include attempts to save a currency or auto bailouts.

· Stimulus packages, with a few exceptions, have mostly occurred in the developed world or in larger developing countries.

· Every stimulus package identified is clearly expansionary, yet IMF packages are starkly contractionary and have a high degree of conditionality.

We link here to a spreadsheet that lists the various stimuli and IMF rescue plans in whole dollars, in terms of GDP, and provide a short description and link to each plan. We also juxtapose this information with data regarding each nation’s budget and current account deficits/surpluses in terms of GDP.

This effort is far from exhaustive we are sure. In your comments please point out and provide links to other efforts that we have overlooked. We will be updating this spreadsheet as the year goes on.

More importantly this survey raises real questions:

1) Is this an adequate global response to the crisis?

2) What about the poorer nations of the world?

3) Is the IMF prescribing the wrong policies?

(UPDATE:  See important update to these numbers here. --DR)

Comments

[John Emerson]

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[John Emerson]

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[Namior]

You don't have Canada, whose stimulus plan is about $USB25.

[MK]

The IMF programs for Iceland and Hungary are missing.

[michelle color me shocked]

1) 5.5% of GDP (if the corrected number really is the right one) is not trivial. (By the way, I'm not sure I know how much weight to put on work that gets this calculation out by an order of magnitude.)

2) The poorest nations don't account for much world GDP, and the less plugged into the global trading system they are, the less they have been affected by the plunge in output in Q4. So a small part of the stimulus spilling over will do comparatively a lot of good.

3) Has the IMF ever proposed the RIGHT policies? This whole mess follows in large part from Asian countries building up reserves to self-insure against ever having to deal with an IMF package again. The result: "global imbalances", very low long interest rates, exacerbating the excessive yield-chasing in North Atlantic financial sectors, and removing a lot of the "safe" assets into central bank balance sheets so that other investors were happy to take AAA-rated CDO tranches and other stuff that blew up later. The IMF's role in unwittingly instigating all this has not received enough attention so far.

[Stein-Ivar Lothe Eide]

Norway has also launched a stimulus package. It is in the range of NOK 20 Bn, equivalent to 0.7% of GDP. Emphasis is on municipalities, construction and communication.

In addition, the government has up new measures to enhance the lending capacity of banks, strengthened existing credit schemes for exporters and an export guarantee scheme.

Link to the press brief by the Norwegian Ministry of Finance: http://www.statsbudsjettet.dep.no/Tiltakspakke-2009/English/?pid=30607#hopp

[Robbie Allan]

You may wish to include Australia's stimulus of around AUD 42b:

http://www.budget.gov.au/2008-09/content/uefo/html/part_2.htm

[Thorstein Veblen]

First thought: The 5.5% of GDP is off by an order of magnitude. Yes, if we divide the US's $787 billion by $15 trillion, we get 5.2%. Sounds about right. But, wait, that $787 billion is over three years, basically, so the correct way to divide is over $45 trillion. Then, that $787 billion is a federal outlay, and contradicted at the local level. For example, California just laid off 20,000 workers and increased taxes by $14 billion and cut spending by $15 billion (this is just cuts for one year though). Since state and local governments are cutting their budgets like mad and have projected shortfalls of well over $400 billion over the next three years, the true size of the US stimulus is, in fact, much much smaller than $787 billion.

Second thought: China did announce a second, US$1 trillion package to bring their total package up to about $1.5 trillion... bringing back universal health care, etc...

Thanks to the exorbitant privilege, the US, Japan, and Europe have by far the freest hands to deal with the crisis... Smaller countries are essentially effed.

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[Juan F Guerra]

Greetings from Ecuador, South America. I think you will find the following document very useful: "The reactions of Latin American and Caribbean governments to the international crisis: an overview of policy measures up to 30 January 2009" (http://www.cepal.org/noticias/noticias/1/34991/2009-16-The_reaction_of_LAC_governments_WEB.pdf). It was prepared by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC).

[danielmolano]

not sure what you mean by GDP?

[Sameer Khatiwada]

There are several issues/problems with this work done at BU:

1)We (at the ILO in Geneva) have looked at 40 countries and their stimulus efforts, and we have numerical figures for 30 countries in total. The global fiscal stimulus effort as a percentage of GDP is 3.16 percent of world GDP, not 5.5 percent.

2)The BU spreadsheet has one main problem – it mixes fiscal and financial stimulus for several countries like Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa etc. I think governments of those countries would be amazed to see the numbers provided by the BU.

3)The best way to keep track of stimulus efforts is to track financial efforts (bank injections, buying assets, loan guarantees etc.) separately from fiscal efforts (public spending on goods and services, tax cuts, spending etc.).

Sameer

[gallagher]

The ILO is correct to point out that in two cases (Russia and South
Africa) figures on bank bailouts crept into our entries. I fully agree
that these are categorically a separate manner. They have been deleted
from our list. The spreadsheet downloadable on this page now reflects
those changes. We thank Sameer Khatiwada for pointing this out. Their
list is a good one and quite complete. The only major packages that
seem to be missing is the EU-wide plan and Japan's second plan.

The UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean has
conducted the only comprehensive tabulation I have seen of both fiscal
stimuli and financial bailouts, and they separate these in different
columns (see their link in the comments above).

Aside from the two bailouts and the EU-Japan plans, in our calculations we also
used a $54 trillion (World Bank) estimate for global GDP. Subtract the
two bailouts, add the EU plan, and use the higher ILO denominator and
our two estimates both reveal an estimate of global stimulus spending in
the 3 percent of GDP range.

In either case, readers should note that in most of the countries,
stimulus funds will not all be discharged in the first year. All this
refines and reinforces the consistent finding that the global response
to the financial crisis is quite small.

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Raivo Pommer
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Luftgeld

Finanzpolitik und Steuerwesen sind oft so furchtbar abstrakt. Nehmen wir zum Beispiel die Zahl 100 Milliarden. Was sind 100 Milliarden? Seit einiger Zeit treibt uns der Gedanke um, wie man die guten Taten veranschaulichen kann, die wir als Steuerbürger notleidenden Geldabfackelvereinigungen aus der Finanzbranche zukommen lassen sollen.

Die Lösung ist der Artikel „Geldregen“, den das Versandhaus Tom Wet im Katalog hat (www.tomwet.com). Die monetäre Pappröhre für 13,75 Euro ist eigentlich als Partygag gedacht, kann aber durchaus für ernsthafte Aufgaben eingesetzt werden. Durch einen Dreh an dem 60-Zentimeter-Rohr werden viele Geldscheine - standardmäßig handelt es sich um Spielgeld - mit einem schönen Knall per Druckluftpatrone meterhoch in die Luft katapultiert.

[Andy]

The Law Library of Congress published a related item, Financial Stimulus Plans: Recent Developments in Selected Countries (http://www.loc.gov/law/help/financial_stimulus_plan.php ).

[claus story]

Raivo Pommer
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LBBW-Bank krisehilfe

Die Landesbank Baden-Württemberg (LBBW) wird fünf Milliarden Euro bekommen, um die Folgen der Finanzkrise abzufedern - in Form einer Kapitalerhöhung. Doch möglicherweise braucht Deutschlands größte Landesbank noch mehr Hilfe. Einem Bericht der Schwäbischen Zeitung zufolge benötigt das Institut zur Absicherung von risikobehafteten Papieren Garantien in Höhe von 16 Milliarden Euro. Die Bank wollte dazu am Freitag keine Stellung nehmen.

SPD-Fraktionschef Claus Schmiedel, der Mitglied im LBBW-Verwaltungsrat ist, sagte: "Die Zahl ist aus der Luft gegriffen." Man müsse sich darauf konzentrieren, nur die stark schwankenden Papiere abzusichern. "Denn jede zusätzliche Abschirmung kostet Geld und belastet die Gewinne." Den Umfang wollte er nicht nennen.

Wie die Zeitung aus der Bank nahestehenden Kreisen erfuhr, sollen die Papiere aus dem Kreditersatzgeschäft, die großen Schwankungen unterworfen sind, in eine Zweckgesellschaft ausgegliedert werden. Finanzkreisen zufolge soll es sich bei dem Volumen um etliche Milliarden handeln. Dadurch sollen sie die Bilanz der LBBW nicht mehr belasten.

[marc arenstein]

You may want to see a list of 63 stimulus countries as of March 8, 2009.

[milano st]

Raivo Pommer
[email protected]

UniCredit krise

Die italienische Großbank UniCredit will wegen der anhaltenden Finanzkrise staatliche Unterstützung in Milliardenhöhe beantragen.

Der Aufsichtsrat habe Konzernchef Alessandro Profumo ermächtigt, Hilfen in Höhe von bis zu 4 Milliarden Euro auszuhandeln, teilte das Unternehmen am Mittwoch in Mailand mit. Die deutsche Tochter HypoVereinsbank (HVB) sieht sich hingegen auch nach einem Verlust im vergangenen Jahr nicht als Kandidat für das staatliche Banken-Rettungspaket in Deutschland.

Mit einer Kernkapitalquote von mehr als 14 Prozent liege die Kapitalbasis der HVB auch im internationalen Vergleich deutlich über dem Branchendurchschnitt, sagte der neue Vorstandschef Theodor Weimer am Mittwoch in München.

Angesichts dieser Kapitalausstattung werde ein Antrag auf Unterstützung beim Rettungsfonds SoFFin nicht ansatzweise in Betracht gezogen. Im vergangenen Jahr machte die HypoVereinsbank unter dem Strich einen Verlust von 671 Millionen Euro - nach einem Gewinn von gut 2 Milliarden Euro im Vorjahr. Besonders betroffen war die Sparte Investmentbanking.

Ihre Kunden versorge die HypoVereinsbank aber auch weiterhin mit Geld, eine Kreditklemme gebe es nicht. "Wir entziehen uns dieser Verpflichtung nicht, wir sind eine Bank und stehen zu unseren volkswirtschaftlichen Aufgaben", sagte Weimer. Die HypoVereinsbank gelte bei den Kunden als krisensichere Bank. "Bei uns hat man keine Angst, dass wir über den Bach gehen."

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Stimulus spending has started to help the economy. just need to get the remainder of the unspent money out.

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Do stimulus plans really work?

[sword]

I think there is an underlying social problem in our economics. Until these problems are eliminated we're just going to keep running into the same problems.

[Natural Stone]

The real question is how long can we keep racking up debt that has to be paid down some time?

[annette]

1. whether its an adequate response or not - only time will tell, but so far compared to the widespread panic that swept across the nation last year at this this time of year, and taking into account the comparative economic situation then, i would say the situation has in fact, much improved.
2.Not to be a cynic, but American and western European capitalists only "worry" about the poorer nations when there is no threat posed to their necessary standards of 6 bedroom houses, luxury cars, holiday time shares and Christmas bonuses. Right now, as those assets are still in danger, there simply are no funds available for the poorer nations.
3. I believe the IMC's policies will in fact bring about positive change, if in fact they are ever implemented.

[electronic cigarette]

Interesting post. many thanks.

[Rupert Downing]

We are conducting an analysis of how stimulus policies have used the social economy (i.e. community non profit, cooperative, credit union, and community development organizations) to reach people, communities and social infrastructure most affected. Any links to analysis/date on this would be welcome...our big concern being that bail outs and infrastructure alone will not work, and that cut backs to social programs to pay for the debt incurred will worsen the crisis.

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Mit einer Kernkapitalquote von mehr als 14 Prozent liege die Kapitalbasis der HVB auch im internationalen Vergleich deutlich über dem Branchendurchschnitt, sagte der neue Vorstandschef Theodor Weimer am Mittwoch in München.

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SPD-Fraktionschef Claus Schmiedel, der Mitglied im LBBW-Verwaltungsrat ist, sagte: "Die Zahl ist aus der Luft gegriffen." Man müsse sich darauf konzentrieren, nur die stark schwankenden Papiere abzusichern. "Denn jede zusätzliche Abschirmung kostet Geld und belastet die Gewinne." Den Umfang wollte er nicht nennen.
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