Reading between the lines: a stimulus consensus?

The best argument against a conventional fiscal stimulus that I have seen comes from John Cochrane of the University of Chicago.  Here is his precise question:

Let’s think of a “fiscal stimulus” in which the government borrows money and spends it, but with the clear plan that the debt will eventually be repaid with future taxes, not just by printing money. Can this kind of stimulus work, and if so how?

And his answer:

In sum, there is a plausible diagnosis and a logically consistent argument under which fiscal stimulus could help: We are experiencing a strong portfolio and precautionary demand for government debt, along with a credit crunch. People want to hold less private debt and they want to save, and they want to hold Treasuries, money, or government-guaranteed debt.

But what is really first-best in these circumstances is not spending money on roads and bridges, but an expanded kind of open-market operations:

However, this demand can be satisfied in far greater quantity, much more quickly, much more reversibly, and without the danger of a fiscal collapse and inflation down the road, if the Fed and Treasury were simply to expand their operations of issuing treasury debt and money in exchange for high-quality private debt and especially new securitized debt.

(There is a lot of other useful stuff in Cochrane's piece, and since it is also very well written every macroeconomics student should read it in full). 

I wonder if Paul Krugman would disagree, and if he does, whether the disagreement would be based on principle (i.e., Cochrane does not have the right model) or on expediency.  Krugman's latest post (even though it doesn't refer to Cochrane directly) suggests it may be the latter:

Yes, there are other things the Fed could do — and it’s doing them, on an awesome scale. But they’re controversial, precisely because, unlike conventional monetary policy, they involve picking and choosing among potentially risky investments. And there’s a much stronger case for fiscal policy than in normal times, because we don’t know how well these unconventional measures will work.

And if I am right on the remaining source of disagreement, we can say two things.  First, there is in fact a reasonable consensus about the economics of the situation (as described by both Cochrane and Krugman, although they do use different words).  And second, the remaining disagreements are largely philosophical, political, and practical--revolving around the role of government, the extent of rent-seeking and public-choice concerns in government programs, and the right mixture of prudence and boldness that the situation requires. 

It wouldn't be the first time that economists are discussing such questions--for which their PhDs have done little to qualify them--in the guise of discussing economics.  But it would be too bad if disagreements on the second score obscure the apparent convergence on the former.   

Comments

[Walt French]

Hank and Ben tried it and it didn't work. Look at the crap that the Fed put onto its balance sheet -- hundreds of billions of "high-quality private debt and especially new securitized debt." (Well, maybe not the "high quality" part, unless you take now-explicitly-backed mortgages as "high quality" without the subsidy of a newly minted guarantee.)

Really, what standards would one use to judge the success of a program? And why, if you've subsidized banks to the tune of $350 billion plus without visible success (e.g., lending, jobs, ...) would you be too fussy about trying something more?

[Lord]

One does wonder if they should be buying automaker debt. If the industry is not being allowed to fail, then there can't be anything safer right? ;-)

[Carlos Ibarra]

The difference lies in the likely effect on aggregate demand: if the government issues debt to build a road, then aggregate demand and therefore activity levels will certainly rise; if the government issues debt, not to buy goods and services but rather to buy private debt, will the private sector respond by increasing its demand for goods and services? Under the current circumstances, that's very unlikely--right now there is a strong incentive for precautionary saving.

[J. Bradford DeLong]

I think that there is a significant difference between Cochrane and Krugman. Krugman says that we should try everything that might work to some degree--monetary policy, fiscal policy, credit policy a la Bernanke-Gertler. Cochrane says that fiscal policy and credit policy can only work to the extent that they are really monetary policy in disguise. I suppose that you can define things so that what Cochrane says is not in conflict with what Krugman says, but I don't see why you should strain to do so...

[Declan Trott]

Cochrane argues that government spending financed by borrowing from the public (not the central bank) would be ineffective. I don't think Krugman would agree.

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or
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has the ghost of paul winchell
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to partner up
with greg mankiw
as jerry mahoney ???

yes lets make the fed
lead all sorts of
shuffles to the consolidated
social balance sheet

busy busy busy gentle ben

lots of payment
amounts timing
sources and pathway changes

and all nearly at once
like the changes
we get of train schedules on that big cube in the penn station

in particular lets
fed up
the massive burden shift
from strapped
wage earning households
to their uncle sam

that
makes crystal clear
blue sky sense to me
-among other
geniuses in life's ruff --

but are u prepared
to say
doctor dani
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swift and satisfactory
global recovery
or at least a full recovery of
this indespensible nation's job markets
simply by some massive
fed re fi fiddle ??

don't somebody named Sam
the uber agent --the one player above risk and uncertainty--
gotta spend as well as borrow ???

okay so i miss the point here maybe..

maybe you're just showing us the finance side
of a huge federal
tax cut plan
able to generate
treasury notes
up the wa wa
just as the global
portfolio herd of independent movers and shakers
in high flight fright
come
uncle iou buyin'
plus buying up lots of toxic junk and such
oh now i'm sinking again

i must return to my
hidden fortress and stew

may

[paine]

" I suppose that you can define things so that what Cochrane says is not in conflict with what Krugman says, but I don't see why you should strain to do so..."
thus spackles
pugsley delong
a noble enterprise
none the less Mr R

i recall leibnitz
tried defining away
the host issue
that divided
german
lutherans from
their papist coutrymen

not sure he succeeded

are they now merged ???

wiki is unclear on this

[paine]

btw
i'd rather see uncle sucker
buy the junk out right then simply back it

guraantees mean uncle only pays the loses
a pure sap role
whereas
if gentle ben
builds a
five trillion dollar
yukka mountain
stuffed full
of the global's dollar based toxic paper
some of it will "come thru " eh ??

[Punditus Maximus]

This is kinda dumb -- our fundamental problem isn't a business cycle transition, it's the fact that Galbraith was right. We have two economies, one of small entities which act competitively and one of large entities which act noncompetitively (internally, if not externally). This has lead to the rise of a managerial class focused on extracting wealth from large organizations, rather than creating wealth.

No amount of fiscal or monetary stimulus can correct this; it represents a violation of our models' basic assumptions. If the principal-agent problem drives our economic woes, then free market solutions will do nothing to solve it, other than provide more rent-seeking opportunities.

[D]

Great post!!! Thanks for coming back!

[Nathan Smith]

"other things the Fed could do [are] controversial, precisely because, unlike conventional monetary policy, they involve picking and choosing among potentially risky investments"

Now, imagine that Social Security reform had passed, in the following form: instead of getting vague, revocable claims to future benefits, people get, in return for their payroll taxes, Treasury bills, over which they have property rights, albeit they can't fully exercise them until retirement.

Now, the crisis hits, and you have a *new fiscal policy tool*, namely: allow people to diversify (some of) their Social Security private accounts out of Treasury bonds into stocks and private bonds. Now a lot more Treasury bonds are on the market, helping satisfy portfolio and precautionary demand for secure financial instruments, and new money goes to Corporate America and to shareholders to invest or consume. And the Fed doesn't have to make the discretionary decisions, but these are made in a decentralized fashion by fund managers.

It was a great idea. Too bad Democrats sacrificed us to their FDR cult.

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[Brett]

Cochrane argues that government spending financed by borrowing from the public (not the central bank) would be ineffective.

I'm wondering about that, myself. One of the reasons why the US originally got a National Bank back in the immediate post-colonial era was so that the government could borrow from them in bad times, and in times of war (the Brits were doing it).

Could the Fed do something like that? Borrow money from the Treasury, then lend it out at a higher interest rate to the US government? Obviously you'd be running the risk of inflation, since it amounts to basically printing money, but you could maybe get away with it for a short while (particularly since the dollar is the world's reserve currency).

[gordon]

Cochrane sounds as though he is feeling his way toward the idea of a national bank as has been proposed at this Angry Bear post
http://angrybear.blogspot.com/2009/01/bernanke-had-thought-then-another-and.html
I have seen support for this idea in comments on Economist's View, too, though Prof. Thoma hasn't posted on it as far as I know.

I'm a supporter; it seems like a better idea than the "chaotic bailouts" that Cochrane complains about and at least as good as nationalisation. I fear, however, that both the Obama Adminstration and the Democrats in Congress all still have a long way to travel before such options can be taken seriously.

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