Yes markets in the U.S. and Europe are doing terribly, but to me the real news today is that emerging markets have taken a huge tumble: Russia went down 20% before it closed down again, Argentina and Brazil are both down by more than 10%, Mexico by 7%, South Africa by 8%, and Turkey by 9%. There goes the decoupling theory...
And what could be a really, really bad portent: China went down by more than 5% today. China is used to large swings in its stock markets, but this time it is happening in the midst of extremely unfavorable external circumstances--in fact because of them.
When other countries experiences financial crises, they lose a few percentage points of GDP and they get it over with. A lot more is at stake in China. China's precarious social balance and political stability hinge on continued high growth. Derail that growth engine, and you could have some really scary consequences that will affect 1.3 billion people and their neighbors.
(And talk about bad timing....)
Would you expand on what you think may happen if China's growth drops significantly, i.e. what are the "scary consequences" and how would they come about?
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