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October 05, 2008

Comments

Russell Pittman

When members of the Black Caucus voted no but then allowed themselves to be persuaded by Senator Obama to switch their votes, they simultaneously a) made Obama look more effective at addressing the most important issue of the day (and look MUCH more effective than McCain), and b) placed Obama in their debt for doing so. Certainly not a bad strategy, if that's what it was.

Frank

The estimated equations ignore the serial correlation in the votes? I could not tell by the appendix.

If so the standard errors are off and so is the statistical inference.

Davin Chor

A quick clarifying comment in response to Frank. The regressions were run separately for the first and second votes (Columns 1 and 2 in the technical appendix), so there shouldn't be an issue with serial correlation in the standard errors within each probit regression run.

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A suggests that the voting patterns were fairly predictable after all – the stunning rejection and the subsequent approval of the bailout package were two sides of a familiar political coin.

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Much was made of the political pressures faced by different representatives. Those who were most sensitive to their constituents’ antagonistic sentiments towards the bill because of electoral concerns were indeed more likely to reject it. We found that a member facing a competitive race was 30% more likely to say “Nay” than her colleague with a “safe” seat. Also, a member who was stepping down was almost 50% more likely to vote for the bill than a colleague with a seat to defend. But the reelection incentives did not seem to matter in explaining the change of heart: a representative in a “safe” seat who voted against the bill initially was not more likely to switch his vote than his threatened colleague.

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A more crucial factor was ideology. While Republicans were indeed more likely to reject the bill, what mattered the most was how extreme the ideological position of each representative was.

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What is more, ideology was also very important in understanding which representatives had a change of heart.

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this part of blog "Much was made of the political pressures faced by different representatives. Those who were most sensitive to their constituents’ antagonistic sentiments towards the bill because of electoral concerns were indeed more likely to reject it. We found that a member facing a competitive race was 30% more likely to say “Nay” than her colleague with a “safe” seat. Also, a member who was stepping down was almost 50% more likely to vote for the bill than a colleague with a seat to defend. But the reelection incentives did not seem to matter in explaining the change of heart:" was very interesting, thank you!

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