We are moving to a new world economy, and one of the casualties of the transition could well be the East Asian export-led growth model. My latest Project Syndicate piece evaluates the risks.
« Getting ahead without doing much | Main | Capital inflows conundrums »
The comments to this entry are closed.
In light of the recent food crises and the need for a secure food supply by wealthy mideast countries, could there be an opportunity for a growth strategy centered on agriculture? Here's more : (http://www.chinadialogue.net/article/show/single/en/2391)
Posted by: SB | September 14, 2008 at 12:38 AM
The title sounds similar Krugman's 1987 piece: http://bss.sfsu.edu/jmoss/resources/Is%20Free%20Trade%20Passe.pdf
Posted by: Chandan | September 14, 2008 at 10:59 AM
OK. The slowdown in the US/EU is not important, yet. If it turns into a Great Depression, that's a problem. But the export-led growth model worked great for Asia in the 1970s, when America, at any rate, was a lot worse off tan now. If "export-led growth is passe," it's for other reasons, including:
1. Everybody's doing it. Margins are small in a crowded market. When the world started imitating East Asia, the model stopped working so well (though still not terribly).
2. Base effects. In the 1970s, East Asia was economically small compared to the US. The bigger you get, the harder it is for the export locomotive to pull you. You start to need your own power source. That's a reason that the export-led model may be passe *for East Asia*, but it might still be a great idea for economies that are still very small relative to the world economy.
3. Transport costs. They matter to exporters' competitiveness, and higher oil prices are driving them up. How much that matters depends a lot on (a) a country's access to the sea, and (b) the value-weight ratio of the exports a country specializes in.
I think the export-led model will revive when China (and other now-low-income Asian countries) turns a corner and becomes a big importer. Of course, China is already importing a lot-- of *natural resources*. If it starts importing goods that are more labor-intensive and can be produced anywhere, the export-led model will be a winning strategy again.
Posted by: Nathan Smith | September 17, 2008 at 11:24 AM
I don’t agree with the view that everybody is applying the export promotion model, at least in the optimal East Asian style. Just take a look on the development of high-tech exports as % of the total of a representative sample of LDCs (by size and location) and you will see that, in most cases, they’re not growing. Many countries that want to copy this model don’t count yet with its pre-requisites, mainly a capacity of exporting low-tech goods and a high human capital stock. Other are not even interested in following this path due to their natural resources “curse” aggravated in this moment by the rising terms of trade they confront (rising energy and food prices).
Posted by: The Traveling Economist | September 19, 2008 at 09:22 AM
Dear friend,
Realy it is very useful post , Accept my sincere thanks and appreciation
John Bill
--------------
http://www.dirking.net
Jobs , companies , real estate , engineers , petroleum company
Posted by: John Bill | September 22, 2008 at 03:37 PM
it seems like everything is being effected. thanks for sharing.
Posted by: oilfield equipment | April 05, 2009 at 09:17 PM
Ah your very good article and support! Also hope that the cause of you getting better and better every day happy!http://www.star-trek-dvd.com/star_trek/Voyager/index.html
Posted by: star trek voyager | April 14, 2009 at 01:31 AM
This is clearly replica watches the job for our legal fraternity to engage the establishment to necessary breitling watches steps by filing petitions in various courts. IF one fails another should be cartier watches filed taking every one to task. It is rolex watches useless to suggest ways and means to solve tag heuer watches the day to day problem to well paid employees tissot watches of government controlled establishments. Only active omega watches judiciary will resolve this problem.
http://www.watchvisa.com
http://www.watchvisa.com/breitling-watches.html
http://www.watchvisa.com/cartier-watches.html
Posted by: rolex watches | February 25, 2010 at 10:23 PM
Why is everyone just montblanc watches willing to accept power cuts? Don't you think that patek philippe watches having continious power is your right? If people aren't going to demand rado watches 24X7 power, don't expect anything zenith watches to change. The government needs to look at other sources parmigiani watches of power generation. The only solution is more power panerai watches production. Nothing less.
http://www.watchvisa.com/montblanc-watches.html
http://www.watchvisa.com/patek_philippe-watches.html
http://www.watchvisa.com/rado-watches.html
http://www.watchvisa.com/tudor-watches.html
Posted by: rado watches | February 26, 2010 at 12:27 AM
People usually say :"Seeing is believing." http://www.tt88times.com
Each attempt has a corresponding gain, in part or obvious, or vague. At least we have the kind of satisfaction After I bought this watch ,in a sense,it means a great deal to me. http://www.fashionhairfu.com
Posted by: rolex watches | April 20, 2010 at 02:59 AM
GHD straighteners was kmown as ghd flat iron, which was authorized online seller provides all kinds of hair straighteners,pink ghd,purple ghd,babyliss. By visiting ghd australia , you will find what you want and made yourself more beautiful.If you miss it ,you miss beauty.Buy a piece of ghd for yourself.Come and join us http://www.ghdoutlet-au.com/ to win the ghd iv styler.
Posted by: ghd straighteners | April 22, 2010 at 01:16 AM
this blog is very interesting! thanks for the information! I think we should take good care of our natural resources as they are limited and very important for our welfare! A CHANGE FOR ALL FIGHTS! Greetings!
Posted by: cheap kamagra | April 22, 2010 at 01:30 PM
Birkenstock was Made in Germany since 1774 . Check out our Birkenstock sandals and Birkenstock shoes including the Birkenstock gizeh,at the lowest regular outlet prices, free shipping and when you put on Birkenstocks. you will feel very comfortable.
Posted by: birkenstock | May 06, 2010 at 12:55 AM
Thank you for introducing me the useful information.And .....Totally boring. can you tell me where is the red and gold colors...? I predict a very low seller....I look forward your answer.thank you!
Posted by: mbt shoes | May 07, 2010 at 03:00 AM
Your article is very good, I am interested in, usually I like to browse sites about air Jordan shoes, because I really like air Jordan shoes, I saw a very nice air Jordan shoes web site, if you have friends also like it can take a look!
Like air Jordan shoes http://www.mydiscountjordanshoes.com/ air Jordan shoes! Support Jordan!
Posted by: air jordan shoes | May 11, 2010 at 10:35 PM
The good news, thank you!
Posted by: Nike Air Jordan | May 16, 2010 at 05:05 AM
Looking a hair straightener for men,ghd iv styler mini is designed especially for men with shorter styles. It is perfect for spiking, creating tight curls and straightening shorter lengths of hair.
http://www.ghdstraighteners-au.com/ ghd iv styler
Posted by: ghdstraighteners-au | July 08, 2010 at 02:13 AM
I like these articles , democratic countries formulate policies are both team and the interests of the people of power, but the undemocratic countries rarely for the interests of the people, http://www.jerseysky.com it is the sorrow of many democracy, I like the western and northern state policy.
http://www.cheapsaleing.com
http://www.nikeairmaxshoe.ocm
Posted by: lachou | July 26, 2010 at 04:11 AM
Dear friend,
Realy it is very useful post , Accept my sincere thanks and appreciati
Posted by: asics shose | July 27, 2010 at 10:05 PM
I like these articles , democratic countries formulate policies are both team and the interests of the people of power, but the undemocratic countries rarely for the interests of the pe\
Posted by: lv store | August 13, 2010 at 03:34 AM
Thank you for introducing me the useful information.And .....Totally boring. can you tell me where is
Posted by: louis vuitton | August 13, 2010 at 03:36 AM
I am a senior student too, I Love this post as i love study english, This article is to my feelings, thanks for your sharing, hoping to see more useful content, refueling
Posted by: Moncler | August 15, 2010 at 10:08 AM
I am happy to find this post very useful for me, as it contains lot of information. I always prefer to read the quality content and this thing I found in you post. Thanks for sharing.
Posted by: jordan shoes | August 20, 2010 at 08:30 PM
Very interesting issue that after a very successful. Nicely written article good work ! Thanks for the great piece of sharing.
Posted by: jordans for sale | August 23, 2010 at 10:22 PM
I’ve seen progression in every post. Your newer posts are simply wonderful compared to your posts in the past. Keep up the good work!
Posted by: jordan shoes | August 24, 2010 at 03:22 AM
thank you for sharing ! learning more here ! Good post !
Posted by: abercrombie | August 27, 2010 at 07:33 PM
I always prefer to read the quality content and this thing I found in you post. Thanks for sharing.
Posted by: VRS | September 02, 2010 at 03:50 AM
hay man have a look at this post.....
Posted by: Potassium Chloride | September 20, 2010 at 09:35 AM
Im not going to say what everyone else has already said, but I do want to comment on your knowledge of the topic. You're truly well-informed. http://www.taobao-trade.com.
Posted by: cheap and high quality handbags | October 15, 2010 at 08:29 AM
And this is why they have no ideas. Their one real idea, that they born with whips and spurs so that they should ride the rest of us who were born with saddles and halters, has proved as vain as the divine right of kings. All the left has left is the gall-bitter knowledge of defeat and a purblind hatred of the Jews and the United States.
Posted by: Buy Online Rx | November 09, 2010 at 03:54 PM
Dubai is the center of the international trade. People from all over the world come to Dubai to shop various products and articles on regular basis. Latest promotions offered by this international city are many starting from most economical packages to highly luxurious business-to-business trade promotions.
Posted by: Latest Dubai offers | November 24, 2010 at 01:49 AM
We are pleased to state that we have been professionally thriving in our efforts to assist scholars accomplish high standards. Read testimonials from our clients and returning customers.
Buy Custom Essay
Posted by: Account Deleted | December 21, 2010 at 11:21 AM
raf
Thanks for sharing.
Posted by: Account Deleted | January 19, 2011 at 10:03 AM
For five decades, developing countries that managed to develop competitive export industries have been rewarded with astonishing growth rates...
Two Fold Brochure
Tri Fold Brochure
Posted by: Account Deleted | March 14, 2011 at 12:45 PM
I seem to remember a little document called Constitution, it talks about pursuit of happiness and Human Rights for Americans and democracy in USA. orjin krem I don't remember it postulated pursuit of Globaloonie, Free Trade, Supernation Federation run by Jeffry Sachses of this world.
Posted by: oyunlar | March 22, 2011 at 12:10 PM
Thanks for your opinion. I totally agree with it.I like buy cheap designer handbags at http://www.mybestbags.com as well and someone is looking for cheap coach handbags fds
Posted by: Account Deleted | April 05, 2011 at 11:10 PM
Helpful advises above. I have noticed that many people are using twitter for marketing. I would love to try this too for my business.
hotel in karachi
Posted by: Account Deleted | April 28, 2011 at 07:51 AM
This post is very informative and useful.. Thanks for sharing knowledge..
SRT
Posted by: Account Deleted | April 28, 2011 at 07:55 AM
http://www.ghdstyle-au.com/ghds.html
http://www.chihairflatirons.us
http://www.ghdsoutlet.com
http://www.googleghdhair.com
Posted by: Account Deleted | May 05, 2011 at 01:24 AM
Many countries are trying to emulate this growth model, but rarely as successfully because the domestic preconditions often remain unfulfilled.
Homes For Sale
Posted by: Account Deleted | May 25, 2011 at 11:23 AM
Many places and centers offer business and trade promotions to both buyers and supplier.What about the differences in skill intensities across industries? The job losses in the relatively unskilled-labor intensive battery industry should have little effect on the relatively skilled-labor intensive machinery
sexshop
sexyshop
sexshop online
alongador peniano
Posted by: Account Deleted | July 21, 2011 at 02:18 PM
Really i appreciate the effort you made to share the knowledge.The topic here i found was really effective to the topic which i was researching for a long time
organic seo service
Posted by: Account Deleted | October 13, 2011 at 04:02 PM
I appreciate It is very nice to see good information in your posting, I was searching the same which you post, thanks now I got my desired information which I was looking for my work.
logo designer free
Posted by: Account Deleted | May 11, 2012 at 12:22 AM
Awesome, Very interesting issue that after a very successful. Nicely written article good work ! Thanks for the great piece of sharing. Enjoy to read your write . Thanks a lot
Creating History Together With ArenaBetting Piala Eropa 2012 http://seotoolinfo.com/2012/06/creating-history-creating-history-together-with-arenabetting-piala-eropa-2012/
Agenliga Sebagai Agen Bola Online Untuk Euro 2012 http://seotoolinfo.com/2012/06/agenliga-agenliga-com-sebagai-agen-bola-online-untuk-euro-2012/
Posted by: Account Deleted | June 30, 2012 at 12:55 PM
Umpteen places and centers engage performing and job promotions to both buyers and bourgeois.What near the differences in acquisition intensities across industries? The job losses in the relatively unskilled-labor qualifier battery business should possess minuscule validness on the relatively skilled-labor intensive machinery
Essay Editing
Posted by: Account Deleted | August 08, 2012 at 12:28 AM
Bank Mandiri Bank Terbaik di Indonesia
Bank Mandiri Bank Terbaik di Indonesia
Promo Bonus 100% Sbobet, Ibcbet dan Casino Online Dalam Rangka HUT BAVETLINE Yang Kedua
Masterbet88 Grand Opening Promo Bonus 50% Sportsbook dan Casino Online
Posted by: Rastia Rigie | January 15, 2013 at 01:19 AM