Update on the Radiohead experiment

OK, the bad new first. I suspect that a few of the early "bids" were put in my spam folder by Gmail, which I deleted during the day without checking. Later on, when I noticed that my spam folder was filling up again, I discovered some (newer) responses there. So there seems to have been an unplanned lottery element in this. If you sent in a response before 9 pm GMT yesterday (Saturday) and want to make sure it enters in the "official" lottery, please forward it again. (Please forward the original e-mail, since I am keeping track of the timing of "bids.") 

The good news is that Save the Children should be really happy by the time this is over.

Remember that the deadline is 5am GMT on Wednesday. Since Monday is a holiday in the U.S. (Columbus Day), I wanted to give a chance to those readers who consider following my blog to be work.

And one final thing. Many responses have also included guesses about the mean/median of the offers, or their distribution. I would be interested to know your thoughts on this, regardless of whether you participate in the lottery.  

Comments

[db]

I predict that people will bid based on three principles:

-Their personal benefit
-Economic Rationality

- Some idea of a "fair" price. I suspect there will be a mass point at a bit above $21, ie your marginal cost + your shipping cost.

- Some idea of personal reservation value, or reservation price--particularly if that price is below $21.

- Economic Rationality. There will be some people who bid very small amounts of money. They are angry that they feel guilty about this.

So I predict a mean of $20, with a lot of action in the $10-25 range.

[Manuel]

I copy what I put in my bet email.

I think that the fact that the proceeds will go to the charity affect decisively the different bets. I think that the guilty effect I felt when betting would probably affect many more people. The bets would not reflect the value of the book, but the value of the book & the value of feeling good for contributing to a charity. In this regard, it would be great to compare your experiment with radiohead's (if I remember well, they'll keep the proceeds).

Regarding the distribution of bets, the mode will be either 0 or somewhere btw USS 15 and 25 (I am assuming that you will round all bets so that they are integer numbers), the mean btw 3 and 7 (because of the 0 bets that will significantly drop the average), and the median around USS 18.

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