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October 07, 2007



I predict that people will bid based on three principles:

-Their personal benefit
-Economic Rationality

- Some idea of a "fair" price. I suspect there will be a mass point at a bit above $21, ie your marginal cost + your shipping cost.

- Some idea of personal reservation value, or reservation price--particularly if that price is below $21.

- Economic Rationality. There will be some people who bid very small amounts of money. They are angry that they feel guilty about this.

So I predict a mean of $20, with a lot of action in the $10-25 range.


I copy what I put in my bet email.

I think that the fact that the proceeds will go to the charity affect decisively the different bets. I think that the guilty effect I felt when betting would probably affect many more people. The bets would not reflect the value of the book, but the value of the book & the value of feeling good for contributing to a charity. In this regard, it would be great to compare your experiment with radiohead's (if I remember well, they'll keep the proceeds).

Regarding the distribution of bets, the mode will be either 0 or somewhere btw USS 15 and 25 (I am assuming that you will round all bets so that they are integer numbers), the mean btw 3 and 7 (because of the 0 bets that will significantly drop the average), and the median around USS 18.

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