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July 27, 2007

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hari

From my experince with Indian Centre-State relationship (ie. federalism) externalities
of state borrowing has always been a serious constraint on RBI ability to manage monetary policy.
One, because given the federal nature of governance, opposition parties ruling in states can create problems for union govt at centre. I don't know exactly what's the percentage of state indebtedness today compared to centre's.

Politics is messy in India - like in any democracy with left-right pluralism - yet on balance RBI is able to impose its will on externalities as it affects monetary policy.

Current PM ( 1991, as finance minister, he initiated India's opening of domestic market or ending "license raj") and is also former chairman of national planning commission. And,as a professional economist, he's more than aware of India's weakest link,ie. the still subtantial rural population whose share of the national wealth is negligible. Political economy of India, in my view, demands still more unbalanced planned growth of the rural sector in order to overcome abject poverty. This remains the most serious political constraint for the ruling classes.

Compared to China, India cannot impose policies at the centre irrespective of democratic governance. This political constraint is magnified, as the country moves up the economic ladder....

paine

"all those democracy pessimists in the blogosphere to take note"

i want to know who's behind the open ECB flow
= domestic "real" sustainable bonanza claims
in an open society the struggle among interests
is also open
but it must be fought
by loud persistent ways
having the facts on your side
in policy debates
like innocence in court
are not enough

your agitprop
is the only effective counter to their agitprop

Krishna

That's way too effusive and congratulatory, in my opinion. Here's a broader view/perception of the Indian government from a respected domestic business journalist:

"Have you noticed something? The government has nodded off.

Policy debates, say, in economics, which matters more than foreign policy, have all but ceased. Except for the angry fuss around the rural employment guarantee programme two years ago, no one talks very much about anything relating to economic policy.

True, there is the odd quibble about the pace of this or the details of that. But no one, not even those darling pussycats, the Communists, who seem to have gone into quietus, is getting really anxious and jumpy any more about anything on the economic side.

This is the UPA Effect, because this coalition is the greatest pacifier ever, led by a man who can soothe frayed nerves as no one else can.

The technique is simple. You don't like something? There there, says the government, we will not do it, calm down, go and see a movie or something. When you come back you will find nothing has changed, promise.

Thus: Let's cut subsidies. No? OK. Let's privatise. No? OK. Give market access to someone other than you-know-who. No? OK. Reduce the EPF rate. No? OK. Do something about participatory notes. No? OK. Power sector reform? No? OK. Don't want us to keep saying OK to every no? OK.

And so it goes on. If even three ordinary people (let alone ministers) don't like something and shout their protest loudly enough, the idea is dropped. Nothing moves forward so as the world moves ahead, we get left behind.

This approach to consensual governance has had three effects, at the very least. First, the undeserving continue to get what they want. You can apply this test yourself and make a list.

Second, conversely, the deserving are being denied what they need. It doesn't matter which group. If you are deserving of something, you won't get it. Go on, make a list and see.

And, third, as a result, the majority is getting mighty peeved with a government that does absolutely nothing at all, good or bad. Indeed, this must be the only government--if one can dignify it by that name--of this kind in the world. It just floats along smilingly..."

http://www.rediff.com/money/2007/jul/28guest.htm

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Thank you. This is wonderful stuff to supplement any discussion of the currency appreciation problems many countries are currently experiencing.

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