Doha a "development round"? What a joke

One of the worst jokes made at the expense of developing countries in recent years has been to market the current round of trade negotiations as a "development round." As the memoirs of Mike Moore, then WTO director general, candidly reveal, this particular appellation was contrived to endow global trade negotiations with some legitimacy in the aftermath of the disastrous Seattle meetings of the WTO. It had very little to do with putting the interests of poor nations in the driving seat.

How little is revealed in a new essay by Katherine Vyborny, from the Carnegie Endowment, which reviews recent numerical simulations on the likely effects of Doha. Not only are the global welfare effects quite small, low-income African countries emerge as losers in most of the models. The reasons are essentially twofold.  First, low-income countries will lose some of their preferential market access to rich countries as the latter reduce their tariffs to other, less poor countries. Second, removal of agricultural subsidies will raise the world price of agricultural commodities, imposing a net burden on the poorest nations of the world, who tend to be food importers. Here is the distribution of gains (and losses) according to the leading models:

Keep this picture in mind next time you hear someone decry what a catastrophe it would be for Doha to fail.

Comments

[Daniel Gomez]

All simulations show that low income countries are those that gain the most from Doha, followed by middle income countries, high income countries and indeed with poor African countries as net losers. If low income countries and middle income countries gain, why is it so outrageous to call it a development round? Isn't most, if not all of Latin America, a lot of Asia and some of Africa in the low and middle income categories? Maybe there are other issues that the poorest countries have to address before sharing in the gains from world trade liberalization. These should be addressed without jeopardizing the gains Doha offers all other developing countries.

[Jtapp]

Aren't many of those African nations food importers BECAUSE of the agriculture subsidies of the EU and others?

[notsneaky]

Unfortunetly, the ag subsidies have also been the focus of the anti-globalization folks. My understanding here is that the kinds of crops African nations have a comparative advantage in are sufficiently different from the kind that the rich countries have so that the subsidies in the rich countries are essentially a net benefit for the African ones. Those subsidies may be harmful to some middle income countries, particularly in Latin America. This understanding is mostly anecdotal and based on non-scholarly sources though. I don't know of any serious estimates of the impact of rich country ag subsidies on African countries.

[terence]

But notsneaky, presumably food types are somewhat substitutable no?

Concentrating on food subsidies misses part the story for some countries as well - cotton subsidies being significant.

[KY Choong]

So a Doha failure won't be be such a calamity after all? I did wonder whether we would all be better off calling Doha off, and encourage each country to unilaterally reduce trade barriers because (according to the economists) it is in their own interest to do so. I thought that Doha might have the perverse effect of delaying unilateral action because the reductions are viewed as "concessions" to be traded off with "concessions" from other countries. Is there any merit in this view, or is the notion that unilateral reduction in trade barrers is in a country's own long term interest another furphy. ("Furphy" is an Aussie slang for rumour.)

[notsneaky]

presumably food types are somewhat substitutable no

Well, it depends. Some (crazy) people think coffee and sugar, two food types, are complements.

But I think you're right to note that agriculture is more than just food.

[Justin Rietz]

I agree with Vyborny's conclusion that the best deal would be to completely open up markets for developing nations - no duties, no quotas. In fact, in an ideal world, this would be the goal that all countries would be working towards. It can even be reasonably argued that the U.S. should unilaterally open its borders to complete and total free trade. What better statement could the U.S. make about its commitment to fight world poverty, while at the same time reaping the benefits of increased international trade?

I do take issues with other portions of Vyborny's report, however. The most flagrant is exemplified by this quote:

"The models are not intended to predict how the world or country level economies will evolve in the future, but rather to estimate the specific role of trade policy changes apart from other changes in the economy"

It is incomprehensible to me how anyone could even ATTEMPT to calculate the impacts of trade policy without considering other economic changes that might occur, let alone justifiy the results of such calculations. Perhaps I am just being obtuse...

[David]

This was really a good blogg by an economist. I´ve been reading Mankiw´s blogg for a while and it sometimes make me angry. He sounds, in a politicas sens, a bit like G.W.Bush him self.

[terence]

notsneaky: you grind coffee in with your sugar?!? wow, you americans *are* strange.:)

[Katherine Vyborny]

Dani: thank you so much for highlighting the paper and these important issues. I'm looking forward to seeing you at the Center for Global Development again this fall!

As commenter Justin noted, the models found that if the U.S. and other rich countries offered a "development package" of complete duty-free quota-free access for the poorest turned the Doha losses into wins for all the African countries - making a true Doha Development Round still very much worth pursuing.

Notsneaky, there have been a number of serious attempts at the World Bank and by academic economists to estimate the impact of ag subsidies on poor countries. But watch out for estimates that look at the total impact of "producer support," because those typically assess the effect not only of subsidies but also the support of tariffs protecting domestic agriculture.

Kate

[Gallagher]

The largest estimates (that are positive) for sub-saharan Africa under a "likely" Doha deal are a mere 400 million (ANderson World Bank studies). If under a "development package" those nations have to liberalize their on imports they lose 1.7 billion (according to UNCTAD) in tariff revenue.

[rolex watches]

People usually say :"Seeing is believing." http://www.tt88times.com
Each attempt has a corresponding gain, in part or obvious, or vague. At least we have the kind of satisfaction After I bought this watch ,in a sense,it means a great deal to me. http://www.fashionhairfu.com

[tiffany jewelry]

At present this season's jewelry.

[colon cleanse]

It is important to maintain good eating habits and do exercises routinely, not only because it makes us physically see more slender and attractive, but because our internal organs work better and feel very well what will be reflected in the appearance and obtain a total welfare.

[Nike Air Jordan]

The good news, thank you!

[who called me]

In general the developed states want natural resources from the less developed states at favorable prices. The developing states want trade policies that encourage local business and nobody cares what the undeveloped states want since they have no clout.

[lachou]

I like these articles , democratic countries formulate policies are both team and the interests of the people of power, but the undemocratic countries rarely for the interests of the people, http://www.jerseysky.com it is the sorrow of many democracy, I like the western and northern state policy.
http://www.cheapsaleing.com
http://www.nikeairmaxshoe.ocm

[Moncler]

I am a senior student too, I Love this post as i love study english, This article is to my feelings, thanks for your sharing, hoping to see more useful content, refueling

[mbt shoes]

I am a senior student too, I Love this post as i love study english, This article is to my feelings, thanks for your sharing, hoping to see more useful content, refueling

[jordan shoes for sale]

I think this is a great post. One thing that I find the most helpful is number five. Sometimes when I write, I just let the flow of the words and information come out so much that I loose the purpose. It’s only after editing when I realize what I’ve done. There’s defiantly a lot of great tips here I’m going to try to be more aware of.

[jordan shoes]

It's good to see this information in your post, i was looking the same but there was not any proper resource, than now i have the link which i was looking for my research.

[Moncler]

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&source=hp&q=site%3Arodrik.typepad.com&rlz=1R2GGLL_zh-CNCN375&aq=f&aqi=&aql=&oq=&gs_rfai=

[VRS]

This article is to my feelings, thanks for your sharing, hoping to see more useful content, refueling!

[weddingdresses]

The first stage Wedding Dresses of spring wedding will give you so many things to plan and organize. Taking some time first to think and jot down some initial wedding ideas or Evening Gowns themes is really important before referring to any wedding vendors or Evening Dresses
venues. In this way, you will be able to easily conceptualize the perfect touches Quinceanera Dresses for your spring wedding day.As we all know, spring is the mark of time of birth and renewal. Having your wedding in this beautiful season can bestow a marriage life full of excitement and adventure.

[gucci outlet]

yeah, they should think over what they did.

[cheap and high quality handbags]

I can't believe how much of this I just wasn't aware of. Thank you for bringing more information to this topic for me. I'm truly grateful and really impressed.

[newest jordan shoes]

Hello friend, I am very much happy to see your blog. But the problem is I can't understand the language. Thanks for posting. All the best.

[Finpecia]

Thank you for sharing to us.
Please one more post about that..

[Dubai promotions]

Many places and centers offer business and trade promotions to both buyers and suppliers. These promotions are fine as far as low pricing structure is concerned but when it comes to quality, only Dubai promotions are idea and best-suited as per your actual business needs and trading requirements.

[Account Deleted]

We are pleased to state that we have been professionally thriving in our efforts to assist scholars accomplish high standards. Read testimonials from our clients and returning customers.

Professional Essay Writing

[Account Deleted]

Hi Dani
How are you !
Dissertation Writing
Thanks for sharing info...

[Account Deleted]

raf

Thanks a lot.

[Account Deleted]

I think it's reasonable to say the European Union and Australia are allies in seeking an early conclusion to the round...

Web Application Development

[Account Deleted]

Wow, nice post,there are many person searching about that now they will find enough resources by your post
Generic Viagra

[Account Deleted]

Great information, you have a wonderful blog and an excellent article!!
Regards,
Generic Viagra

[Account Deleted]

Hola,
Realmente buen trabajo, hay muchas personas en busca de eso ahora van a encontrar suficientes fuentes por tus consejos.
También se espera para más consejos acerca de que,
Regards, メファキン

[Account Deleted]

hey buddy,this is one of the best posts that I’ve ever seen; you may include some more ideas in the same theme. I’m still waiting for some interesting thoughts from your side in your next post.
Generic Viagra

[Account Deleted]

Hie primum ipsum visitabo hic. Ita multi inveni in vasa interesting maxime Weblog eius discussionem. Tons de tuis commentationes articles, suspicor non sum solus omnem habens fructum praesens est! sustine bonos vsus.
Regards,
Ports Automation

[Account Deleted]

Nice post. This post is different from what I read on most blog. And it have so many valuable things to learn.Thank you for your sharing!
laptops in islamabad

[Account Deleted]

Skönt att vara besöka din blogg igen, har det varit månader för mig. Väl här artikeln som jag har väntat så länge. Jag behöver den här artikeln för att slutföra mitt uppdrag i kollegiet, och den har samma tema med din
Generic Levitra |
ttp://www.bellspharmacy.com/maincategory/7/generic-levitra.html

[UnlockDollar]

Concurrent themes keep going together.

http://unlockyourdollar.blogspot.com/p/amazon-filler-item-finder.html

[Account Deleted]

Raf
raf

I like it ... Thanks !!

[Account Deleted]

Raf
raf

Thanks to you !!!

[Account Deleted]

Nice, accurate and to the point. Not everyone can provide information with proper flow.

Nattokinase

[Account Deleted]

I have wanted to learn more about particular topics, but not many websites would help me out in informing me the way I expected. This left me with many question, but after reading your article, I got an answer to all my questions. You are too cool dude!!!

Regards,
Generic Drugs Exporter

[Account Deleted]

Be Nice to visiting your blog again, it HAS been months for me. Well this article that I've been waited for long with. I need this article we complete this assignment in the college, and it Has Sam topic with your article. Thanks, great share.
http://www.onlinemedicalstore.net/allergy-lioresal-baclofen-c-1_26

[Account Deleted]

Hey Great post I’ll be back soon on your site again so please continue sharing your great tips.
Silagra

[Account Deleted]

hey buddy,this is one of the best posts that I’ve ever seen; you may include some more ideas in the sametheme. I’m still waiting for some interesting thoughts from your side in your next post.
http://www.bellspharmacy.com/category/4/kamagra.html

[Scarfbuy]

Maybe you are right about developing countries. But Qatar now is a very pwerfull economy. Last yers Doha showed high economical growth.
Ben, http://kjoppropecia.eu/

[Account Deleted]

Many places and centers offer business and trade promotions to both buyers and supplier.What about the differences in skill intensities across industries? The job losses in the relatively unskilled-labor intensive battery industry should have little effect on the relatively skilled-labor intensive machinery
sexshop
sexyshop
sexshop online

[Account Deleted]

thank you
http://skunk-smell-removal.blogspot.com/

[Account Deleted]

Great synopsis of commenting and how to very well written and all that link love you just poured out, great post, if this was a forum you would have a sticky on this http://englishtospanishforkids.com/

[Account Deleted]

Thanks to a brilliant effort in publishing your article. One can be more informative as this. There are many things I can know only after reading your wonderful article.

organic seo service

[Lena Kong]

Did you check our e-commerce website ? You can now buy your favorite heels straight from our site ! http://www.discountlouboutinoutletus.com/ Christian Louboutin Shoes

[Account Deleted]

Whether you need any help in giving a finishing touch to your papers or writing the difficult chapters or need the analysis of those critical assignments, you can take help from us anywhere anytime. We are just a call away.

Paper writing