Specialization or diversification

One of my favorite stylized facts about development is contained in the graph below, which comes from  a paper by Imbs and Wacziarg. What it shows is that as countries grow out of poverty, their economies become less specialized and more diversified. This seems to be true both across countries, and within countries over time.

What's the big deal, you might say.  Well, it is a big deal if you have been brought up on the idea that the key to economic growth for poor countries lies in specialization according to comparative advantage. If that simple recipe were true, countries that are getting richer would be producing a narrower range of goods, not a broader range. It takes a lot of mental gymnastics to square this stylized fact with the standard comparative advantage arguments. A far simpler interpretation is that the key to growth is the acquisition of production capabilities in an increasing range of goods, in a way that is often in tension with what comparative advantage would dictate.  Here is a paper that tries to make these ideas more precise.

The Imbs and Wacziarg data show that countries do begin to specialize after some point (and hence the U-curve in the graphs), but that point comes relatively late in the development process, once Ireland's level of income is reached.

UPDATE:  Roberto Porzecanski's comment below provides an opportunity for clarification. Roberto says the Imbs-Wacziarg result is consistent with trade models, insofar as countries that are growing through capital-deepening may end up producing a broader menu of goods as a result. Yes, of course. But my concern is not whether this stylized fact is consistent with trade models (it certainly is), but whether it is consistent with a story about trade and trade policy being a causal driver of growth. If countries that are growing are those that are making use of comparative advantage while those that aren't are not, then you should see the growing group of countries becoming more specialized. The standard trade-based story is that accumulation and productivity change are the result of an increase in the economy-wide return to such activities, driven by comparative advantage (and therefore specialization). So you should see, at least over part of the lower-income range, a positive relationship between specialization and incomes.

"A student" asks whether non-homotheticity of demand can explain the I-W result.  I don't  quite follow, and I don't see how it could.

For more potential explanations, you should turn to the original Imbs-Wacziarg paper in the AER (2003).

Comments

[Romain Wacziarg]

Thanks, Dani, for blogging about my paper with Jean...
Romain

[Michael Sullivan]

Doesn't this happen because as a poor country, you will have a huge potential advantage (at least vis-a-vis richer countries) in almost any market where labour is more important than capital. So there is a wide spectrum of industries in which you can develop comparative advantage quickly/cheaply.

As your labor becomes more expensive, it takes more and more capital (technology, expertise) to stay competitive with low-labor cost economies, and in some cases it becomes impossible, so you tend to specialize.

This result doesn't seem to be incompatible with the theory of comparative advantage so much as with overzealous application of it.

[Torben]

The issue of specialization vs diversification is an important development issue that demands serious considerations. Text books and most professors argue that the idea of specilization is one of the most important commandments that economic development has since 1776. On the other hand, if you are from small developing economy say Ethiopia, you will see that during period of demand shocks, say for coffee, you will realize how the currency depreciate very much and the supply of oil(basic import), let alone important development goods such as equipments and machnies, decreases due to forex constraint. If you are from Gana, you will realise such impacts when price of cocoa declines. May be specialization is helpful for booming world economy with less global shocks. Otherwise, it is one obstacle to development as it has been in the past and this is what the fact on the ground.

[Andrew]

Can you explain the graphs a little more? I noticed that the vertical axis covers a tiny range. Is there a large difference between a gini coeff. of 0.5 and 0.6?

[terence]

Or perhaps you could argue that, very early in the process of economic development, countries typically engage in the export of a few primary products, which no amount of comparative advantage can turn into real wealth. For some other reason they then start to 'take off', at this stage they experiment with a wide variety of industries etc. until they 'find' those that they can specialise in.

[a student]

I'm sure you have considered whether this is a cause or consequence of growth. Perhaps you could explain why?

[a student]

My apologies for the question above. My question should have been: "Perhaps you could explain why you think this is not due to, for example, non-homothetic demand?"

[Roberto Porzecanski (PhD Student, The Fletcher School)]

The empirical evidence on development and diversification presented by paper by Imbs and Wacziarg is powerful. It is not clear, however, that this result is inconsistent with classic trade theory, even under the most restrictive assumptions. In a Hecksher-Ohlin factor endowment trade model, a country’s production (and export) basket can change as the capital labor ratio changes (due, for example, to foreign direct investment). This dynamic can lead a country to move from specialization in labor or land intensive goods, to a more mixed basket of production, to specialization in capital intensive goods (in other words, to move along the “cone of diversification”). However, I believe pointing this fact does not weaken your core insights about trade policy. Standard trade theory still doesn’t capture the critical role played by market failures in the process of diversification, a role you have so eloquently pointed out.

[a student]

Thanks for the response.
My thoughts re:non-homothetic demand would come from having some non-tradables in the economy. You get richer, you consume a more diverse array of goods, which you have to produce. You could get the same sort of effect even if everything were tradable, but with transport costs.
I did have a quick skim of the paper. I don't have time at the minute to read every word, but they did mention this kind of thing. However, they said that it couldn't explain the non-montone relationship. Fair enough, but most simple models have difficulty with non-monotone relationships. You could easily add a few bells and whistles to my basic story to get the U-shape.

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