More on immigration (and some of my colleagues)

While on the subject of immigration, I should have mentioned the superb monograph by Lant Pritchett.  Lant makes an excellent case for expanded immigration in rich countries, while he makes clear that he is fully aware of the social and distributional consequences. The book is especially good in showing how labor flows have historically played an important role in income convergence within the United States. (Here is a good quiz question for the economics student: state some of the conditions under which international trade cannot, in the absence of labor flows, equalize factor incomes across regions/countries.) 

Lant is a terrific economist--not just smart, but with incredible knowledge of the real world and common sense.  He is one of those rare people whose work appeals to everyone  who works on development, regardless of their methodological or ideological leanings. It doesn't matter if you are a micro person into randomized evaluation or a growth person; skeptical of globalization or in love with it; a hard-core economist or a management type. You simply love his work. No wonder the New York TImes Magazine is doing a profile on him and his work. Look for it. (The last economist profile the NYT has done, if my memory serves me correctly, is that of my Harvard colleague, Ed Glaeser.  Lant's tastes in clothes run quite different from Ed's, so I fear he may not make as good photo material...)

Which is why I am so thrilled that Lant is returning to the Kennedy School and our MPAID program. Among other things, he will be teaching a course with Larry Summers on globalization (see what I mean?).  The MPAID program is already the best program in development policy in the world, so his addition makes us, I guess, the bestest one.

Lant's and my views on immigration contrast with those of George Borjas, another colleague and outspoken opponent of expanded immigration. The Senate deal's preference for a point- and skill-based immigration policy would have pleased George, since he has been advocating for such a change for years. But I am pretty sure he will not like the temporary work program element.

Interestingly, the difference of views has nothing to do with the economics of immigration, on which I think we all agree. Expanded immigration is likely to exert downward pressure on workers' wages in the U.S.  Where we  disagree is on whether the gains to the rest of the world make this still a worthwhile effort (in the context, of course, of efforts to cushion the adverse effects on U.S.). As Alex Tabarrok points out in a recent post, the differences have to do with what we think is the relevant moral community for making public policy decisions.  George thinks the purely national perspective is the right one, and he figures the aggregate gains for the U.S. are small relative to the distributional costs, which makes this bad policy.  For my part, I believe cosmopolitan considerations should enter our calculus when the gains abroad (or to foreign nationals) are sufficiently large, which they would be with temporary labor flows. (So I am not a strict nationalist on these matters, to revert to Tabarrok's terminology.)

UPDATE: George Borjas sent me some comments, which I include in their entirety:

1. The thing I object to most in the proposal is the amnesty of 12 million illegal immigrants WITHOUT addressing the fundamental border enforcement problem. For a number of reasons (fairness, incentives), it is irresponsible to address the question of what to do with the current 12 million illegals without first resolving the issue so that we do not have to revisit this again in a few years. I have no problem with taking some sort of action that will bring the illegals "out of the shadows" at some point. But it's probably prudent to do nothing about this until we make sure that this is not a problem that will recur yet again.

2. As for the guest worker program, I think that your perspective involves more than a little wishful thinking. Can you really guarantee that the guest workers will in fact be temporary workers? How are you going to get them to go back? Have you thought about how the U.S. judicial system will react to a lawsuit brought about by someone who doesn't want to get into the plane ride home? What's to prevent them from becoming illegal immigrants in the end? Think of the German experience. As a very wise person once said about that experience: "we wanted workers and we got people instead." Guest workers tend to get sick, tend to get married, procreate, etc., and all of these inevitable life events open up entitlements in the U.S. system that cannot be ignored--some of which are very costly. So your guest worker idea is, to a significant extent, a permanent immigration increase being sold as a temporary inflow. Now, you and I can debate over whether such an increase is desirable. I don't think so, but I'm willing to be convinced otherwise if you can prove to me that the gains to "us" are sufficiently large (and it is the definition of "us" that we probably disagree most about). But the debate must be conducted in a transparent and honest way: this is not really about temporary workers at all, it's really about permanent immigration. And, again, because it is people we are importing--not just workers in a widget factory--there are non-economic issues that cannot be ignored (culture, language, security, etc.) unless you are proposing that the guest workers be packed away in some warehouse from the day they arrive until the day they are shipped back home.

3. I'm glad to hear you and I agree on the underlying economics--there are downward pressures on wages. I don't know if Lant would agree--I saw him give a talk in Milan the other day and a big bullet in the PowerPoint was: no evidence of wage effects! It's funny how people (on both sides of the political divide) are willing to put aside the elements of supply and demand when they want to argue for open labor flows.

4. The point system is great. I would love to think that, at last, someone paid attention to something I said! But I doubt it.

George

PS. One of these days I will have to talk to you about your blog. I've been thinking about doing it for some time but I'm afraid it would just eat up all my time. I'd love to ask you how things are going and how you got started.

My main response to George is that I do take the temporariness of the "guest" worker program seriously. I would say that other such programs, such as the German one that George mentions, may have had "guest" in their title, but actually had neither carrots nor sticks in place to ensure return migration. I do agree with him that without such incentives, this would turn into a permanent scheme, and my enthusiasm level would go down a couple of notches.

And those of you who want to see a George Borjas blog, do give him a holler of encouragement...

 

Comments

[Torben]

Professor Dani:
I have a question that puzzled me for long time with this issue.

Isn't increase in immigrattion increase in labor supply that initially pushes wages downward? Yes, but why the reasoning stops here?
If the same immigrants have impact on market wage, why don't they have impact on the product market? If they have, then they would obviously raise the price of final goods. Other things being equal, standard comparative statics results inform me that the demand for input(including labor) increases. Thus, we have two effects on wage. The initial downward pressure from higher supply and the higher pressure from increase in demand for final goods. Theoretically, the net impact depends upon the relevant elasticities. This is in Neoclassical world.

Moreover, if I take Daron seriously, I see that also high labor size also have impact on market for innovations. Obviously, from standard dynamic macroeconomics, we know wage is proportional to innovations and immigration raises market size and the return from innovation.

Taking these three effects together, I can't see why we all agree on the economics that limits itself to the initial impact? Do you have any explanantion why almost all economists stop in the first stage of reasoning? Thanks in advance for arranging such a useful and balanced forum.

Regards,T

[Bruce Webb]

I worked for a time with a real estate firm that had a property management unit. We ran a credit and criminal background check on every perspective renter and charged them the $40 it cost to do it. The cost to shift from an employment system that punishes employers for hiring undocumented workers instead of punishing the workers is trivial, it costs less than a day of wages. We could eliminate undocumented workers overnight by simply requiring every employer to do what pretty much every government employer does today, require applicants to submit to a records check and keep the results on file.

Why wouldn't American industry embrace this cheap and effective solution to the problem of hiring undocumented people? It is something I like to call 'Supply and Demand'. If you limit supply and demand goes up guess what happens to price?

We are not in the sixties anymore, we have the technological tools to fully screen every applicant for everything whatsover in seconds for relative pennies. That we haven't moved the mandate over to employers is just a combination of greed and laziness. It is not in employers economic interest to screen for documentation so they don't.

We need to stop targeting Maria and Pedro and start targeting Felipe the labor contractor and Monica the homeowner who has the illegal housekeeper.

Prohibition made it illegal to produce, transport or sell alcohol. It didn't make it illegal to possess or consume it. Meaning rich people with wine cellers or people who successfully took delivery of those 20 cases of Scotch were home free. Same dynamic at play here, all the focus is on the transmission and nothing on the consumption.

Instead of a kludged together guest worker program how about we have an auditable program of requiring employers to show due diligence before hiring? With substantial fines for non-compliance?

Because in my ideal world the only people scrambling for cover when 'La Migra' busts in the door would be the CEO and the head of Human Resources.

On a semi-related note this gets to the same point of the role of 'stated/stated' in the sub-prime debacle. There is not a single loan originator that did not have the technical tools to test stated income or stated assets, it was just convenient and lucrative to not perform the tests. Likewise we could lock down the same sort of non-documentation in employment overnight with negligable effects on efficiency in hiring. On the other hand it would probably have noticeble effects on wages. Which is why it isn't happening.

If we required the average employer to run his company in the way that the average owner of an eight-plex apartment does we could eliminate illegal employment overnight. Me, I am not waiting up expecting that particular dawn. 'Cherchez la femme' 'follow the dollar'. Still good guidance all around.

[Sami B]

Professor Rodrik,
I appreciate your points regarding migration, but I'm wondering whether you and Professor Borjas have come across a recent study by Giovanni Peri from UC-Davis, "Immigrants' Complementarities and Native Wages: Evidence from California."
It provides rather stark evidence against the popular argument that immigration, particularly of the unskilled, drives down the demand for and wages of native labor. The author actually reports strong findings to the contrary. Given that California is the eigth-largest migrant-receiving "country" on earth, these findings are certainly not trivial. The identification strategy seems extremely plausible and the empirics generally sound. Quoting the main findings for those not interested in reading the full article: "Our median estimates reveal that these complementarities of immigrants spurred wage growth of natives, once physical capital adjusted, by about 4% in fourteen years. These average wage gains for natives were distributed as small wage
changes (0.2 to 0.7%) for high school dropouts and significant wage gains up to 6.7% for workers with at least an high school degree" (Peri 2006).

[Dani Rodrik]

Torben--

You are right in a world where labor is the only factor of production. But if there are others--think of capital and land, for example--then real wages have to fall. That is because the increased supply of labor results in an increase in the relative return to capital and other factors. That in turn requires the real wage to fall, since the movement in factor prices has to bracket the movement in the price of final output. Otherwise factor payments would exceed the value of national output.

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[TW]

This is really a response to the concern Prof. Rodrik has raised on several posts recently, namely how to combine carrots & sticks to ensure that temporary workers under a guest worker program do in fact stay temporarily. This got me thinking about another argument made often by critics of a more permissive immigration policy, namely that by providing an outlet for more ambitious Mexicans to seek their fortune we're actually hurting the cause of reform in Mexico. I don't really buy that argument, but think they're on to something in the sense that dependence on remittances is over the long run bad for a developing economy, and that if we're going to get a handle on the immigration problem we should take the opportunity to try and better leverage those remittance dollars in their developing county of destination.

So what if we said that all or some of the fees & penalties that the US govt would charge under the new regime outlined in the senate bill (fees charged both to current illegals who'd seek citizenship / permanent residency & to new guest workers) would be held in escrow, with half the proceeds to be applied to proven, reputable development programs in their home countries (e.g. micro-credit, education, public health) & half to be remitted to them when they return to their home countries at the end of their visas? That would provide a tangible "carrot" for participating & cooperating in the new system, and leverage billions to promote economic development in Latin America. For me, that would go a long way toward justifying the border clampdown that will inevitably be part of any new law.

[alex]

Prof. Rodrik,

I was going to write an incredible eloquent rebuttal to your post, but I see that George Borjas has already done it for me (especially his points 1 and 2).

As for your idea that it's possible to design a guest worker program that works as advertised, I think you're underestimating both the political and cultural difficulties.

For example, your idea that part of someone's wages be withheld until they return home. What about the person who needs to send it home now?

For another, the idea that you can track whether people leave. Sure, but you can't track whether they come back again.

The political aspects also favor (to state the obvious) the politically influential. The skills categories of H-1B visas have everything to do with the political clout to convince Congress that there's a "shortage" of the people you hire, and nothing to do with objective data. Even in 1998 the GAO concluded that there was no reason to increase the H-1B visa cap, but that didn't stop Congress. The statement in your paper that "we can imagine aligning the skill mix of
'guest' workers with that of the natives—allowing in no more than one construction worker or
fruit picker, say, for every physician or software engineer" is sadly naive. We already have lots of guest worker software engineers but not physicians.

Also, many people working here will garner tremendous sympathy if they wish to stay. While I'm a staunch opponent of the H-1B program, I always find myself very sympathetic to any H-1B I know who fears having to leave the country because of job loss or visa expiration. This is a desirable effect, because it explains the success of American immigration. Generally Americans are sympathetic to immigrants (or would-be immigrants) who want to assimilate to a reasonable degree (enough to be someone who you would like to work with or live next to, not the strict assimilation ideal of say France).

Lastly, there's the historical perspective. Has there ever been a guest worker program that has worked as advertised?

[alex]

Prof. Rodrik,

One more point. I like the emphasis in your work on historical/empirical data. Are there any countries whose economies have grown substantially because they've "exported" guest workers?

[Dani Rodrik]

Alex --

The answer is no, and not just because we do not have any programs in existence that looks like what I would advocate. It is because growth depends first and foremost on own policies. The guest worker program is one of the better things that rich countries can do for the poor. But it will never be a growth strategy for poor countries.

[Steve Sailer]

How many people live in countries with lower average per capita GDP's than Mexico's?

Five billion.

Anmerican immigration policy can't possibly have more than a negligible effect on the average standard of living of those five billion people. What can make them better off is fundamental reform in their own country, as in China after 1978 and India after 1991. However, countries that export a large proportion of their discontented to America, such as Mexico, Philippines, and El Salvador, are notoriously resistant to fundamental reforms at home, in part because America provides a safety valve for the ruling class to bleed off discontent.

Economists should spend more time trying to understand reality before they indulge in preaching morality.

[DRR]

A: Is there anything on the (forgive me) elasticity of wages as it pertains to increases in the labor supply from immigration? For instance certain studies conclude that the effects of minimum wage either have no effect on the employment level or an effect small & improportional to the price floor set.

B: Do any of these studies about the benefits of immigration take into account, you know, the benefits to the immigrants themselves?

[DRR]

"Economists should spend more time trying to understand reality before they indulge in preaching morality."

Smart words on both counts coming from a eugenicist & frequent writer of a racist white nationalist website preoccupied with being "browned out."

[Steve Sailer]

Yes, DRR, it's easier to concoct ad hominem smears than to come up with answers to challenging logic, but we already knew that.

[Asif Dowla]

With all due respect to Professors Rodrik and Borjas, simple supply and demand can explain the lack of effect of immigration on the wages. The Professors are only considering the shift in the supply curve in the short run. Over the long-run, decline in wages would prompt the firms to exapnd plant size which would shift the demand curve to the right. So, the ultimate effect on wages is an empirical question. As an example of demand shift, consider the meat packing plant that are built in Iowa populated by the cheap immigrant labor. This has helped Iowa from the threat of depopulation.

[Steve Sailer]

Uh, in inflation-adjusted terms, wages at meat packing plants are less than half of what they were 20 years ago.

Or, consider California, which used to be a broadly prosperous state, but now has the second lowest standard of living for the median state income family of four in the country (adjusting for cost of living):

http://isteve.blogspot.com/2005/05/standard-of-living-by-state.html

[KY Choong]

Guest worker programs have long operated in Singapore, Hong Kong and Malaysia, the last being the country I grew up in. The governments of both the host country and the source country seem to strongly support such programs. I now live in Australia, which does not have a guest worker program, but instead takes in many permanent migrants each year. There are many things about a guest worker program that is ugly. For one thing, it means that not all residents are equal. I wonder how an egalitarian country such as Australia could tolerate a guest worker program. On the other hand, an egalitarian ideal that is confined to one's national borders and ignores inequality elsewhere seems somewhat flawed. Still a guest worker program could work (for the benefit of both the host and source countries), but possibly at the expense of an egalitarian ideal.

[Robert Hume]

Prof Rodrik says that he is in favor of immigration because he wants to improve the world's standard of living, not necessarily the US's standard of living.

Of course Prof. Rodrik is free to donate his own money to charities in foreign countries, but he must tread carefullly in giving away the taxes of his fellow citizens who may prefer their own welfare.

And in particular, politicians who are elected by US citizens must think carefully about supporting policies that benefit primarily those in other countries. They are supposed to represent their electorate and the electorate is always wildly anti-foreign aid. Only if the politician truly believes that he knows better what is good for the electorate should he go against their wishes. And if Prof. Rodrik were that politician he would know better and hence would be against high levels of immigration?

[notsneaky]

"But if there are others--think of capital and land, for example--then real wages have to fall."

Not if capital can be accumulated - see Sami B. and Asif above.

-------

And Steve Sailer, no one wants to engage your "logic" for the same reason that no one wants to discuss race relations with David Duke, or wrestle with pigs in general.

[notsneaky]

Here's an excerpt from Borjas' WSJ article:

"The "all other things equal" assumption is not sensible from a long-run perspective. Over time, employers will certainly make capital investments to take advantage of the cheaper labor. This adjustment implies that, in the long run, the average worker is not affected by immigration..."

So even Borjas admits that in long run immigration will not have an effect on average wages (though of course, the unskilled could still see relative losses)

[Luke Lea]

Economists questioning the laws of supply and demand are like physicists advocating perpetual motion machines. Jeesh. . .

[James Galbraith]

On one point, I agree with Borjas: there is largely no such thing as a "temporary" worker program.

Let me report an interesting conversation with a prospective student (in Austin, a few days ago) who has been working on labor rights among would-be guestworkers in Nuevo Leon, Mexico. In this case it concerns an existing program for tobacco workers in North Carolina.

He finds that there is a network of middlemen, who interpose themselves between the workers and access to the program. The result is that workers head North under a heavy burden of debt -- $2000 is normal -- which they cannot earn enough to pay off. Result? Rather than face their creditors back in Mexico, they go underground in the U.S.. That's the reality of a temporary program.

Another plain difficulty is that temporary workers have no rights, and no incentive to play by the rules of the society into which they are imported. What's the worst that can happen? A bit of prison, and then they are sent home. It is much better, in my view, to hold out the prospect of a long-term commitment to the receiving society, including citizenship and political rights. People then have an incentive to adapt, which otherwise, they do not.

Does the presence of immigrants depress the wage? Only if there is a wage-adjusting supply-and-demand process! In much of Europe, there is not, and therefore no reason for immigrants to push down domestic wages. It is merely a question of maintaining standards.

As I wrote in a letter to the NYRB a few years ago in response to an article on this topic by Sandy Jencks, there is (or was, at the time) a large differential between the starting salaries of the custodial staff at Harvard and those at MIT. (MIT paid substantially more.) Harvard's workforce, moreover, had a substantially greater immigrant presence than MIT's.

This differential could not be accounted for by a labor market barrier between Harvard Square and Kendall Square, which are separated by just one stop on the Red Line. No visa is required to pass from one to the other. There is no wall. It is simply a matter of standards.

James Galbraith

[Peter Schaeffer]

I have looked at the immigration work of Peri for some time now. Much of it is deeply contrafactual. Recently, Peri has published a new paper, Immigrants’ Complementarieties and Native Wages:Evidence from California (http://www.econ.ucdavis.edu/faculty/gperi/Papers/california_wp_dec06.pdf). This paper attempts to show that immigration has raised the real wages of workers in California, even high school dropouts. A few notes:

1. The empirical data (Figure 3, Change in Real Wage of U.S. natives, by Education group 1990-2004) actually shows large declines for high school dropouts. -17.6% in California versus -15.1% nationwide. Peri does not attempt to explain the large decline in wages of low skill workers (as best I can tell) or why wages fell faster in California.

2. As best I can tell, Peri uses a aggregate production function that would make it very difficult for immigration to ever adversely impact the incomes of natives in general, although that might not be true for specific groups. For reasons stated below, this does not appear to be realistic for California and perhaps not the nation.

3. Peri assumes that immigrants are almost entirely complementary to natives, even at the low end (but less so). He is quite aware that this is a contentious point and attempts to defend his methodology and conclusions. I can neither support nor refute his assertions.

4. Peri appears to be aware that his work is deeply contra factual, although this is never explicitly stated. Natives have been net leaving California in vast numbers (millions) for quite some time now. If immigrants were complementary, this should either not be happening or immigrants should be net leaving as well. Obviously this is not true. Peri attempts to refute this critique via a regression of some type. He offers no other explanation as to why natives would be fleeing California.

5. Peri rather explicitly does not even consider the possibility that immigration has impacted prices (mainly but not exclusively housing) in California. Peri deflates California wages using a national CPI, not a state one. This is highly contrafactual in my opinion. California’s population would be much lower (30% of California’s population is foreign born) without immigration and housing correspondingly more affordable. I cannot quantify the impact of immigration on housing costs in California, however it is certainly large. Note that the Census (but not the BLS) shows California housing to be roughly twice as expensive as the national average.

6. If one takes into account housing costs, Calfornia is considerably more expensive than the US as a whole and real wages corresponding lower. Indeed, California emerges as one of the poorer states (43rd) in the nation, if the local cost of living is taken into account. Given the linkage between immigration and prices, it would appear that immigration has markedly reduced real wages in California. Of course, this would account for the native outflux contra Peri.

Thank you

Peter Schaeffer

[jmdesp]

On the subject of "temporary" immigrant, i'd like to rise the situation of France. In the 60's, the french work market had very high tension and a desesperate need for more low wage workers. So the borders were wide open for temporary working immigrants from Maghreb. But then it was found they would send almost all their wages to the family back home. So they were allowed to make their family come too. And that's how step by step they became permanent resident of a country that never has been quite ready to take the proper steps to really integrate them.

At the end, you get the riots.

In my opinion, the real problem is how they have been segregated, parked in gloomy suburbs, and blocked in so many unofficial levels from becoming a real part of french socity.

But anyway the start point is policy makers thinking they could have some tempory immigration, and trying to keep it temporary all along instead of accepting it would become permanent and had to be handled as such. It doesn't work and the end result can be really bad for everyone.

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