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April 25, 2013


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A further problem is that there might be a bad selection of experts into "pundit-experts", the type that the public listens to and calls up for advice. Unfortunately the more secure you act about your prescriptions and views and the smaller your perceived margin of error is, the more of an impression you are likely to leave on public discourse. After all you are the one that does seem to have a (maybe even THE) workable solution to our problems. Thus experts that either delude themselves via overconfidence in their ideas or those that delude the public by overselling their confidence (i suspect more of the former and less of the latter) are much more likely to become public intellectuals and influence policy. I am not sure this theory is true, but it strikes me as rather plausible :)

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