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July 21, 2011

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Account Deleted

Yes, it is convergence of developing countries, but most of their economies are fragile. It is going to be divergence in the future.

Mitch Friend

I think we are seeing the lagged effect of the developing world's export of goods and savings to the developed world. The developed world took on debt as a result and now they have reached saturation and have stagnated. I would be concerned that the developing countries will be hurt soon by a lack of demand for their products and savings

Account Deleted

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Tim Worstall

My word, what a graph.

The take off of developing country growth comes just as we get the Washington Consensus on what stupid things developing countries shouldn't do which will limit economic growth in developing countries.

Mere correlation or causation?

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So developing countries are growing and developed countries aren't so much? Awesome.....*nods enthusiastically

Oh wait...

Account Deleted

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Dwight Cramer

I'd offer three thoughts on your note.

1. The 'developed world' is a construction with some validity, but I'm not sure about it's continued viablility. The very idea that the rest of the world would 'converge' on the results of the most it prosperous subgroup group is problematic. Anyway, the developed world was a 20th century outcome of the godawful transformations of the first half of the 20th century and represented a historical segue from the old metropolitan states of the 19th century European empires. I'm not sure what the future will bring, or even how relative prosperity should be measured (per capita is not a foregone conclusion). Nor is the continued existence of a subset of developed nations.

2. On a policy point. I wonder if the creation of reliable demand (preferably in domestic markets) is not more important that best practices assimilation of foreign technology. The old fashioned approach to that was autarchy, I suppose the modern version would be the creation of modest American style saftey net to remove the need for astonomical savings rates (though the Americans appear to be unraveling theirs for whatever reason). So, in Latin America, for instance, the imposition of a minimum wage for domestic servants results in a somewhat more prosperous lower class and sales of a lot more washers, dryers, dishwashers, etc. into middle class househbolds.

3.The problem with the developed/developing world dichtomy is a bit like the ones between lawyers and laymen or Jews and gentiles. It may mean something to be a lawyer or a Jew, but the terms 'layman' and 'gentile' cover a world of differences. InLatin America alone, consdier how differnt the situations are in Ecuador, Venezuela and Brazil, all of which appear at least to be on vectors, much less Peru and Columbia, which are at actual points of inflection.

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Account Deleted

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The economy will fall down once Eu-Union stops to exist, which will happen really soon, Great war will arouse once this will happen, I can guarantee you that.

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morkel001

I am not sure that it will. Growth in Latin America and Africa is fragile; much of it is making up for lost time rather than real convergence. Asia, I am more optimistic about. But growth in Asia has required unconventional policies (undervalued currencies, industrial policies) that will be difficult to rely on in a world where rich countries are facing economic crises. china outsourcing

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