« An interview | Main | Rhetorical numbers »

December 31, 2008

TrackBack

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.typepad.com/services/trackback/6a00d8341c891753ef0105369ed89d970b

Listed below are links to weblogs that reference Looking forward to 2009?:

Comments

D S Lamont

Bravo! This is spot on.

The IMF's paper this week encouraged a coordinated global approach to fiscal stimulus - exactly what Keynes would have wanted With that, and international commitment to policies of high employment, he would have wanted a free/open trading system - what he lauded as "the wisdom of Adam Smith". (See Markwell, "Keynes and International Relations").

US leadership in international economic cooperation - including an Obama Administration commitment against protectionism - will be absolutely vital, for the US economy and for the world economy on which sustained US recovery depends.

Michael Settle

Nice piece of work. Since most revolutions take place in times of rising expectations, I found your comment on China to be spot on.

Paul Krugman wrote a thoughtful article for the New York Review of books that addresses the relative size of the stimulus package. It was published in early December. I reccommenr it to you. HNY

Adam Smith

A Specific Application of Employment, Interest and Money

Abstract:

This tract makes a critical analysis of credit based, free market economy, Capitalism, and proves that its dysfunctions are the result of the existence of credit.

It shows that income / wealth disparity, cause and consequence of credit and of the level of long-term interest-rates, is the first order hidden variable, possibly the only one, of economic development.

It solves most of the puzzles of macro economy: among which Business Cycles, Stagflation, Greenspan Conundrum, Deflation and Keynes' Liquidity Trap...

It shows that no fiscal or monetary policy, including the barbaric quantitative easing will get us out of depression.

It shows that Adam Smith, John Maynard Keynes, Karl Marx and Alan Greenspan don't contradict each other but that they each bring a meaningful contribution to a same framework for understanding macro economy.

It proposes a credit free, free market economy as a solution that would correct all of those dysfunctions.

In This Age of Turbulence People Want an Exit Strategy out of Credit, an Adventure in a New World Economic Order.

Read It. http://edsk.org/

Youri Kemp

Hi Prof Rodrik,

Another New World Order? Haven't we had enough of that from the neo-con's?

LOL....

It seems as if "change", is just another way to say "new".

Obama wants to bring change to America. I don't know what he has for the world, but it is correct that there will be some new things moving forward!

Europe has the resemblance of an old 'picky’ maid. Fussy about everything and accomplishing nothing.

Europe is on the verge of a new social revolution, which will rival that of the first wave of revolutions.

The same oligarchic dynasties, who worked feverishly to replace monarchies in earlier centuries, are being hoarded by a new wave of anarchists--I don't know what to call them, other than anarchists (for lack of a better term)-- who are hating, with an extreme passion, the social caste system in Europe.

This is not just new immigrants, but older and pervaseively lower class families, who have just not been benefitting the way they should in their country.

What's happening in Greece should be a fore-warning to countries like France, the UK, in particular, and, the rest of 'old' Europe.

Belgium, has mis-read the growing under-tide of the national political scene, which has been connected through communication and shared experiences, on what to expect from a country and leadership.

While Leterme was shaken, stirred and then defenestrated, due to his poor response to the growing economic crisis, one can only imagine what other political pressure he faced to do, or, not do things--this was not the first time he decided to ask to be relieved of his duties.

The new Belgium PM, Rompuy, seems to be from the old European established guard.

I see major trouble ahead for Belgium--which will be a contrasting event, compared to the tensions we see displayed in Greece, brought on by the catalyst of that fatal shooting.

Belgium will have a similar event, overplayed. And, then, analysts will be asking; "what in the world happened in Belgium!?!?!"

The world is changing and the old guard, is either pretending the change agents do not exist--or-- are simply trying their hardest to remain relevant.

As for global business, 2009 will be a wasted year, unless, they can cut a Doha deal--which, is, by all intents and purposes, a dead deal if we are seeing so much subsidies and protection, through the back door, by the way of economic stimulus packages!

A horrible feeling 2009, can be avoided, however. But, folks who have control now, have to let go and let God deal with it--old Europe, Bushites, neo-con's, progressive's and the rest of the developing world; Just let go and let God deal with it!!

Really, there is nothing this old guard can do about it.

Work with everyone, or simply become irrelevant!

Happy New Year.

Youri
http://globalviewtoday.blogspot.com/

D. Watson

So the question becomes if you think the ideal position is that of a contrarian? Is it really a change of tune to continue saying "not necessarily" to the 'consensus' view?

Youri_Kemp

That's a riddle all in to itself!

LOL....

Youri
http://globalviewtoday.blogspot.com/

Brett

Considering that we're already seeing signs of new protectionism in the Developing World (Brazil and Russia with tariffs, China with export subsidies), I'm pessimistic.

wjd123

If we had put trade together properly in the first place--with an eye toward countries that have the wear-with-all to follow international rules along with trading partners with similar political economies as ours-- we wouldn't be facing many of the problems Dani worries about.


I for one am not willing to go back to the status quo. Why should we waste this crisis just to work our way back to business as usual.

I'm not as worried about protectionism as Dani. I'm not fretting over protectionism against China. I would welcome it. And I'm not as worried as Dani about our politicians responding to voters' complaints over leakage in our fiscal stimulus package. Our politicians have done a stellar job of doing nothing about trade deficits for a very long time. Why would they suddenly leap into action against fiscal leakage. They will do nothing and hope voters won't catch on. You can be sure that 90% of the media will stay away from the problem 90% of the time. All here that think the Obama administration will give leakage priority raise your hands.

Here is the protectionism Dani worries about:

"It is pretty easy to increase the multiplier; just raise import tariffs by enough so that the marginal propensity to import out of income is reduced substantially (to zero if you want the multiplier to go all the way to 2.8). Yes, yes, import protection is inefficient and not a very neighborly thing to do--but should we really care if the alternative is significantly lower growth and higher unemployment? More to the point, will Obama and his advisers care? Being the open economy that it is, I fear that the U.S. will have to confront this dilemma sooner or later. In an environment where the dollar has already appreciated against the Euro and even more significantly against emerging market currencies, fiscal stimulus here will produce an even larger current account deficit. If American consumers decide to spend 40 cents of a dollar of additional income on cheap imports from China and other foreign countries, the multiplier will be a mere 1.3. How long will it take before politicians of all stripes cry foul over the leakage through the trade account and the "gift to foreigners" that this represents? And they will have Keynesian logic on their side."--Dani Rodrik

Mr. Todd

The Financial Times has their own New Year round up, with more specific questions, and vaguer answers.

http://mrbloggington.blogspot.com/2009/01/fts-giant-crystal-balls.html

memory

"future generations may remember 2009 less for its global economic and financial crisis than for the momentous transformation it will have caused in China."

And so on. As usual, the New Year is an occasion for predicting apocalyptic change. It's virtually always the percentage action to bet against it. For documentation, see e.g. Philip Tetlock, Expert Political Judgement: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?

I therefore predict that the Chinese government will be quite successful in keeping the lid on any major protests is 2009.

wjd123

I've invented a new science of trade, the science of comparative psychology. It goes hand and hand with comparative advantage.

The gains of comparative advantage have to be assessed in light of comparative psychology. For instance the social psychology of China and the United States are bad for each other. The Chinese have a need to save while Americans spend. Together they produced a huge trade deficit and a credit bubble. Every gain of comparative advantage is sooner or later wiped out by the losses due to the misfit in comparative phychology.

Ok, you say it was the misappropiation of easy money that got us into this mess not a difference in social psychology.

I beg to differ. One of the founding principles of my new science is that there are as many types of human nature as there are societies. As such what happened was almost assured.

Cobain Hades

Hi Memory,

Are you Chinese? I wish there would be as much as transformation in China in 2009. But there wouldn't be any major ones happen, I bet, especially in political side.

don

"Experts on China differ in their estimate of the rate of economic growth the country needs to create employment for the millions that flock into its urban areas every year. But it is virtually certain that China will fall short of this threshold in 2009.'
Don't the people 'flock' to the cities in response to jobs? Why would they 'flock' to the cities if there were no jobs there? I'm disappointed in seeing such stuff reproduced in your otherwise excellent blog. It seems to me like propaganda (an excuse, if you will) for China to maintain its policy of currency mercantilism. By the way, you don't say so explicitly, but isn't China's currency policy a bigger global trade distoriton than the stuff considered in the Doha Round? Is it 'protectionist' for countries to insist that such policies be curbed?

Per Kurowski

“Will the U.S. policy response be “bold” enough?” More important than that is whether the U.S. policy response will be “consistent” enough.

At this moment without still really comprehending how we got into this mess, mostly because so many scapegoats are tossed around serving other agendas, the market needs to find a story line that makes sense in order to trust tomorrow. A discourse of tax rebates and stimulus packages does simply not add up to a credible story.

Michael Warhurst

Protecting jobs is a problem???
In the history of industrialization there has never been an economy that exported its jobs and survived. Exporting jobs is economic suicide!
The basic equation is that by exporting jobs - unreciprocated free trade = unsupportable one way trade - we are replacing the champion consumers of all time (the N.American middle class) with workers in Asia and Latin countries who can hardly feed themselves and will add zero to world consumption and demand for manufactured goods!
This means that by rallying behind the neocon rhetoric of 'no protectionism' as if protecting power consumers jobs was a bad thing, we are greatly shrinking the world's economic pie. All of this to satisfy the ideological urgings of the neocons who created this mess in the first place.
What we need is trade which is restricted by reciprocity so that we are not unemploying power consumers to replace them with slave wage earners who cannot feed themselves and thereby condemning the world to economic depression for the second time in a century due to neocon ideology!!
In 1929 the percentage of the US GDP that was derived from exports was a mere 5%. For neocons to say that a few percentage points drop in GDP caused by 'protectionism' created the whole Great Depression was born is utter BS and they know it - or they should. If they don't they need to retire from economics as a pursuit because they are unqualified for the job!
WE need to create jobs but if we are simply exporting all of the well paying jobs to slave wage economies then the jobs we create through economic stimulus will only be 'offshored' anyway - so what's the point? This will continue to happen until N. American workers are willing to work for $5 a day just like the Chinese, Latin Americans etc etc!! By this time the world economy, consumption and demand will be so low that the whole world will be trapped in a depression that will make the 1930's look like a cake walk!

lark

Our global economy has a pre-existing inclination to export jobs to low wage locations. The current harsh climate for profits will increase that inclination. Meanwhile American taxpayers will be yoked to bailing out the MNC's who happen to have headquarters here.

How many millions of jobs will be lost under this system, this year?

That system was designed by economists. It deserves to be destroyed.

Penny Stocks

This Blog is really nice and helpful. We hope our post will be useful for all visitors of this prestigious blog.
Thanks


Penny Stocks

Nice Blog. Keep posting more

Regards....

timberlandboots

I like your articles, you have a great writing style!
Thanks for sharing

cheap jordan shoes

More and more furious with the virus, the human is threatened.

nike sb

I am very interested in it, could you please tell me some more imformation? Thank you!

penis enlargement

The best recommended products for fast penis enlargement methods to get better results with no side effect visit: http://www.pennisenlargementproducts.com

Penny Stock Investing

Great post and by the way Great title as well. That is what got me to read the rest of the post. Thanks and hope you write more.

クレジットカード 現金化

I listen to a story that I tried to hold up to examination.

hty

Expertise and knowledge of years of data and compatibility --- クレジットカード 現金化with the specified items to cash and credit cards, we are a reliable guide to the contents safe. We will respond to proper professional purchasing staff. Stores the same day! Founded in cash if you leave it to your card, please YAESUCHIKETTO 20 years!

replica rolex

It shows that income / wealth disparity, cause and consequence of credit and of the level of long-term interest-rates, is the first order hidden variable, possibly the only one, of economic development.

Penny Stocks

Really, nice thought of article.

Penny Stock Alerts

Great post. What's the prediction for the remainder of 2010?

rolex watches

This is clearly replica watches the job for our legal fraternity to engage the establishment to necessary breitling watches steps by filing petitions in various courts. IF one fails another should be cartier watches filed taking every one to task. It is rolex watches useless to suggest ways and means to solve tag heuer watches the day to day problem to well paid employees tissot watches of government controlled establishments. Only active omega watches judiciary will resolve this problem.
http://www.watchvisa.com
http://www.watchvisa.com/breitling-watches.html
http://www.watchvisa.com/cartier-watches.html

rado watches

Why is everyone just montblanc watches willing to accept power cuts? Don't you think that patek philippe watches having continious power is your right? If people aren't going to demand rado watches 24X7 power, don't expect anything zenith watches to change. The government needs to look at other sources parmigiani watches of power generation. The only solution is more power panerai watches production. Nothing less.
http://www.watchvisa.com/montblanc-watches.html
http://www.watchvisa.com/patek_philippe-watches.html
http://www.watchvisa.com/rado-watches.html
http://www.watchvisa.com/tudor-watches.html

list of penny stocks

Very informative post, i disagree with a few points but for the most part i find much of this to be valid.

top penny stocks

In retrospect, this is a great read, could you follow up with some thoughts on 2010?

list penny stocks

I don't feel the response has been bold enough by our current leaders.

penny stock list

It's very interesting reading over this article again a year later.

Penny Stock

Great read. what will happen in 2010?

rolex watches


People usually say :"Seeing is believing." http://www.tt88times.com
Each attempt has a corresponding gain, in part or obvious, or vague. At least we have the kind of satisfaction After I bought this watch ,in a sense,it means a great deal to me. http://www.fashionhairfu.com

ghd straighteners

GHD straighteners was kmown as ghd flat iron, which was authorized online seller provides all kinds of hair straighteners,pink ghd,purple ghd,babyliss. By visiting ghd australia , you will find what you want and made yourself more beautiful.If you miss it ,you miss beauty.Buy a piece of ghd for yourself.Come and join us http://www.ghdoutlet-au.com/ to win the ghd iv styler.

birkenstock

Birkenstock was Made in Germany since 1774 . Check out our Birkenstock sandals and Birkenstock shoes including the Birkenstock gizeh,at the lowest regular outlet prices, free shipping and when you put on Birkenstocks. you will feel very comfortable.

penny stock

Dan i.this is 2 years old but it still applies....I'm glad I found it.

burn fat gain muscle

Well 2009 wasn't that bad, it turned out quite ok. Nice post

lv store

More and more furious with the virus, the human is threatene~~

lv store

economy has a pre-existing inclination to export jobs to low wage locations. The current harsh climate for profits will increase that inclination. Meanwhile American taxpayers will be yoked to bailing out the MNC's who happen to have headquarters here.

http://www.louisvuitton4love.com/louis-vuitton-brooklyn-gm-n51212-p-474.html

jordan shoes

Thanks for sharing your article. I really enjoyed it. I put a link to my site to here so other people can read it. Came across your blog when I was searching bing I have found the bit of info that
I found to be quite useful.

authentic jordans

Thanks a lot for sharing. You have done a brilliant job. Your article is truly relevant to my study at this moment, and I am really happy I discovered your website. However, I would like to see more details about this topic. I'm going to keep coming back here.

jordan shoes

I’ve seen progression in every post. Your newer posts are simply wonderful compared to your posts in the past. Keep up the good work!

jordan shoes

I’ve seen progression in every post. Your newer posts are simply wonderful compared to your posts in the past. Keep up the good work!

Runescape powerleveling

For this matter, once I discussed with one of my friends, not only about the content you talked about, but also to how to improve and develop, but no results. So I am deeply moved by what you said today.

Nike Shox Rivalry

Only the people's social practice is the criterion of knowledge for people outside the standard. The standard of truth is only social practice.Do you think so?

wholesale replica handbags

These kind of post are always inspiring and I prefer to read quality content so I happy to find many good point here in the post, writing is simply great, thank you for the post!

jackets


September 1991 25 Japanese Supreme Court today rejected rock hand county council, [b][url=http://www.monclerlife.com/]Moncler jackets[/url] [/b]county authorities, especially GeLiao government appeal verdict formal visits to the yasukuni shrine violates the [b][url=http://www.monclerlife.com/]moncler coats[/url][/b] 2010 constitution. Japan’s Supreme Court decision to confirm the higher court sendai 10th January 1991 regarding visits to the yasukuni shrine violates the constitution. [b][url=http://www.monclerlife.com/]moncler sale[/url] [/b]High court of rock sendai hand county residents of the yasukuni shrine litigation trial. Action that rock hand county council in 1979 to achieve the requirements as the emperor, [b][url=http://www.monclerlife.com/]Moncler[/url] [/b]the prime minister official visits to the yasukuni shrine’s resolution and speaker, county aid in 1981 as 35 people pay visits to the yasukuni shrine at public expense of incense money violates the constitution about the principle of separation of and requirements of more than 20,000 yen to recover the temple.for money. [url=http://www.monclerlife.com/][b]Moncler jackets sale[/b][/url] The trial, the higher court that sendai formal visits to the outlet moncler shrine on purpose in religious significance, should say with particular religious care to arouse the behavior, [b][url=http://www.monclerlife.com/moncler-jackets-men-c-9.html]Moncler jackets Men[/url] [/b]belong to the con-stitution forbids religious behavior. The money paid as incense beneath the rock pursuit separation principle of neutrality hand county authorities. [url=http://www.monclerlife.com/moncler-jackets-women-c-0_10.html][b]moncler jackets women[/b][/url] Carlo ancelotti has confirmed, terry told me he had outlet moncler problems, hope can be ruled out. I take the anelka was suspended for drogba, so he will play on Wednesday. [url=http://www.monclerlife.com/moncler-quincy-women-down-jackets-black-p-87.html][b]moncler jackets women black[/b][/url] We hope that John terry and frank lampard could even pay, but I think they must be able to train well before.

Account Deleted

We provide essays, term papers & dissertations on affordable prices.

College Essay Writing

Account Deleted

raf

Thanks for article.

oyunlar

We provide essays, term papers & dissertations on affordable prices.

altın çilek
tütüne son

Keithsan01

Thanks. been trading Penny Stock Picks and loving it. Try
OTCBB

Mbtmbtshoes

The reason is very simple, because property is easy to selfish, if property and violence right and discourse together, it's very easy to make all social rights to the property serious tilt. Representative social conscience, master of intellectuals to master the discourse right, a violent right is more likely objective and fair, 2 it is not easy to abuse violence.
http://www.mbtshoestrainers.co.uk/
http://www.mbtusafootwear.com/
http://www.mbtusafootwear.com/blog/

Mbtmbtshoes

airplane head, marcel, bell bottoms, that are decaying bourgeois lifestyle, if young people advocating such way of life, our socialist country will be faced with change of dangerous. Repairing color Is endure which can't endure, then have to use scissors will not killed in the bud.
http://www.coachukbags.com/

Account Deleted

It will be a time when we will all have to change our tune and have to think out of the box. Wholesale Beads I for one will worry more about growth in the advanced countries than in the developing world

Account Deleted

appropriate on Visvim Serra Shoesdark skinned individuals.Do not you justVisvim Sneaker adore women's thongs?

Mbtmbtshoes


it is actually want is rooted in the human nature: we hope everything on earth are understandable, ultimately boils down to some could be clearly identify the instruction and sermon.
http://www.coachusaonline.com/

Account Deleted

Hey, Really great work,I would like to join your blog anyway so please continue sharing with us,
http://www.bellspharmacy.com |
http://www.bellspharmacy.com/category/4/kamagra.html

Account Deleted

hall specially create "a measurement with the shoe box"?? Patent Knowledge, "technology element" of inclusion, to increase the field of

Nike Shoes On Sale

footwear capability of

Account Deleted

If you want to know more interesting go to: http://www.puma7.com/

Account Deleted

Raf
raf

Thanks .. I like it ...

Account Deleted

Really a nice post. Thanks a lot...

http://www.hototc.com/

Andrew Leoni

There are some great points here. Thank you for the information.

Jobs In Woodworking

Account Deleted

Many places and centers offer business and trade promotions to both buyers and supplier.What about the differences in skill intensities across industries? The job losses in the relatively unskilled-labor intensive battery industry should have little effect on the relatively skilled-labor intensive machinery
sexshop
sexyshop
sexshop online
alongador peniano

Account Deleted

With the current weakness across the Globe, in all countries in the article mentioned years ago.
the situation is still the same, Currencies weaken, precious metal strength, not just that but We should also consider health care and pharma companies, ALLOS is one of those undervalued companies that has 300% upside potential from the current price which is $1.8 The right penny stock @ the right time appreciates far higher than any blue chip stock.

for free detailed report :
http://www.pennystock4me.com/Penny-stocks-Picks-Free.html

Gwormd

Good to see the Rams are a decent/improving group, though. A different offseason and they are able to believe playoffs. Skin Ringworm

Account Deleted


Thanks to a brilliant effort in publishing your article. One can be more informative as this. There are many things I can know only after reading your wonderful article.


the best seo company

Account Deleted

Really i appreciate the effort you made to share the knowledge.The topic here i found was really effective to the topic which i was researching for a long time

organic seo service

Account Deleted

The positive comments and do well wishes are very motivational and greatly appreciated.
medicine forum

Account Deleted

Thank you, I have recently been searching for information about this topic for ages and yours is the best I have discovered so far.
drug forum

Account Deleted

powerpoint file corrupted

Thanks for the interesting article!

oyunlar

oyunlar çizgi film izle
very useful info, Thanks for sharing..

terryj

It's amazing that you predicted most of the things.

Verify your Comment

Previewing your Comment

This is only a preview. Your comment has not yet been posted.

Working...
Your comment could not be posted. Error type:
Your comment has been posted. Post another comment

The letters and numbers you entered did not match the image. Please try again.

As a final step before posting your comment, enter the letters and numbers you see in the image below. This prevents automated programs from posting comments.

Having trouble reading this image? View an alternate.

Working...

Post a comment