The next stage of the crisis

One can make a decent argument that the financial crisis has bottomed out in the advanced countries (with the real-economy consequences still to come of course).  But it is barely starting in the emerging markets, and it could get much, much worse. 

Some of these economies are hurt by (now) declining commodity prices; others by large existing current account deficits; and if you do not have a problem on either account, you are (like China) dependent on export markets in the advanced countries that are about to dry up.  These fundamentals are greatly magnified by risk assessments in financial markets.  Now that advanced countries have bailed out and guaranteed vast portions of their financial systems, there is a much greater demarcation between "safe" and "risky" assets, with emerging markets in the second category.  The flight to safety is already taking a huge toll on them.  And the worst is likely to come when domestic residents join en masse in the capital flight.

All of this means that governments in these economies will be under pressure to mimic the public guarantees and bailouts that we have seen in the U.S. and the EU.  But there is a big difference.  Emerging markets for the most part have weak and fragile fiscal systems, and the magnitude of the potential run is huge relative even to the large mountains of reserves that many of them have built up.  Socialization of private liabilities may enhance confidence in the rich countries; it will likely magnify the run in emerging markets.  So we are talking about economic collapses that could be significantly bigger than what the rich countries will experience.  And this time developing countries can legitimately say: it wasn't our fault! 

Which is why external support is absolutely necessary.  This is the time, if there was any, for the IMF to act as a true global lender of last resort--massively, and without many preconditions.  Credit lines should open up to emerging markets before panic gets worse.  The most that the IMF has lent in any one year in previous crises is in the tens of billion dollars.  What will be required now is more of the order of hundreds of billion dollars.  The IMF has the resources; if need be, it can issue new SDRs.

Up to now governments have been behind the curve.  Let's not repeat this experience in the next phase of the crisis, which is now unfolding in the developing world.              

UPDATE: There are encouraging signs that the IMF may be willing to play a role along the lines sketched out above.

Comments

[SpeciousRiches]

I agree that the emerging markets are just starting to feel the effects of this, but
what is decent argument you can make that the we have bottomed in the advanced economies?

I just wrote about housing this morning. We have just gone through the first wave of subprime ARM mortgage resets. Next up are Alt-A ARM resets. How much different is the credit quality of Alt-A and is it enough to offset the fact that Alt-A issuance peaked later meaning many more Alt-A mortgages are under-water.

And then we have option ARMs... I can't see housing being anything but a major headwind for the economy for the next 5 years at least. Are equities really pricing in no or negative growth for 2 year, maybe more?

I don't know the answers, but if someone can cheer me up by telling me we are near a bottom I would be extremely grateful!

SpeciousRiches
http://speciousriches.wordpress.com

[Barkley Rosser]

Funny that at the time of the IEA conference in Istanbul in June, there was all this talk of the IMF about to become irrelevant and being the "Turkish Monetary Fund." Now Iceland has gone hat in hand and this morning it was announced that Pakistan has also. Hungary might need to shortly, along with South Korea, with quite a few other candidates out there.

[Per Kurowski]

Dani you are working from a desk! You have no idea of the capacity to adapt out there on the street, Take a full run in an emerging country and the day after, though hurting, its people might be ready to roll, again, but try to do that in the US of today and you might find yourself with a totally different set of problems.

And who are you to talk to emerging markets about fragile fiscal system running a huge deficit… that will only grow and having some presidential elections based on tax cuts.

Yes IMF should help… but should it help to try to avoid the collapse or should it help after the collapse.

Do you not see the scale of the mess we´re in?

Do you not see that one of the attractiveness of Sarah Palin is that she could at least go out and shoot a moose for dinner?

[SpeciousRiches]

Kurowski,

It may be true that emerging markets are hungrier, but who is going to provide a market for their goods? That's the problem. The premise of decoupling has been debunked. If US consumers aren't willing or are unable to buy what they are selling on credit, they don't buyers. No buyers = no business.

Beyond that, many emerging markets (Brazil, Russia) are emerging because of their resource base. If oil settles below $50 as has been speculated, that puts a serious crimp in their ability to expand.

This is a global recession (depression?) and it has just begun.

SpeciousRiches
http://speciousriches.wordpress.com

[acm]

SpeciousRiches my concern is regarding the CDS markets ‘black hole’; overly leveraged companies in China and Russia; as well as foreign retail banks that operate in the emerging markets experiencing a local “money run” due to instability at home (US).

As for Brazil, the country doesn't have an OIL based economy, they export other goods that where becoming expensive due to an unusual currency appreciation... Brazil has huge reserves of untapped oil that where found in 2007 and 2008, but with oil price's sinking these reserves are likely to be left untouched.

Brazil is a very UNIQUE case, because the culture of borrowing is almost non-existent among its business community (after years of high inflation) average citizens also borrow very little. Before the sub prime crises started, Brazil already had one of the highest rates (for lending) on earth. The mortgage market is government securitized and almost un-existent. In Brazil companies can only borrow against collateral and leveraging is regulated since the hyperinflation years in the 90’s. This detail makes their economic reality quite different from the Chinese, Argentine, Indian, or Russian.

Opposite from the Argentinean Economy (already running out of cash), or the totalitarian governments in Russia and China, Brazil is a solid democracy with strong institutions and an independent Central Bank.

YES, the stock exchange had been hurt and the influx of foreign capital is decreasing due to commodities trading at new lows… But what is happening is a cut in the "exuberance factor" as well as a much needed adjustment in prices and the exchange rate. If you look at the FGV indicators, the Brazilian Economy is slowing but not showing signs of fragility as those suggested above.

[SpeciousRiches]

ACM, very good points about Brazil. I guess my point was more broadly about commodity exporters in general, not specific to Brazil and Russia.

Much of the emerging market growth we have seen has been driven by a boom in commodity prices. That is now reversing and doing so quickly.

SpeciousRiches
http://speciousriches.wordpress.com

[Per Kurowski]

SpeciousRiches says “The premise of decoupling has been debunked. … This is a global recession (depression?) and it has just begun.”

Except for some story-spinning hedge funds, few really believed the decoupling nonsense.

Yes, this is truly a global recession and this time around, I have a feeling that the relative social negative impact of the crisis could be much larger in the developed world than in the developing countries, and so we need to be very watchful on that front too.

There is for instance a crazy storyline that says “this crisis is fiscally manageable” going around in Washington (in London too) but I guess that is only because elections drives out all the inconvenient truths.