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May 22, 2008

Reflections on the issue of the day

It's the Championship League win for Man Utd  of course.  As pleased as I am with the double that Man Utd have achieved this season (winning both the Premiership and the Championship League titles), there is something deeply unsatisfying about the world's most significant sports event being settled by penalty kicks.   God knows it was exciting; who would have guessed that both Ronaldo and Terry would have missed their kicks or that van der Saar's fantastic block would have saved the day for Man Utd?  But ultimately you'd have to say that it was not the overall quality of play that determined the outcome. Chelsea were the better team in the second half.

And the sight of Terry crying on Avram Grant's shoulder certainly dampened the celebratory mood--at least in my home.

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Well, overall the game was even, with MU starting and finishing the better team, while Chelsea dominating the central part of the game, notably the second half. I would give the draw the layfairest result of all.

The question is what do you do when one winner must be declared? The Golden Goal experiment failed. I guess a 48-hour replay would be a better bet, but that would be a logistic nightmare for the fans stranded in far away places. And what if the replay gives the same result? Maybe then the Golden Goal rule could be brought back but only after the first 30 minutes of extra time fail to produce a winner.

ManU is the luckiest club this season. Terry unfortunately slipped and missed the penalty...that was a lucky moment for ManU...anyway, it was a good game and ManU showed a good performance...the Russian oligarch was so disappointed!!!

Yeah...

I have a strong dislike of PK's myself. Being a Milan fan, last year's win was only slight comfort against the the PK loss to Liverpool (after blowing a 3-0 lead!) two years prior. Sheva's double point blank/double-saved shots left me resigned to the inevitability of the fiasco.

I had a bad feeling the game would go to penalties about 10 minutes into the second half when it seemed clear that both teams were out of ideas after a great first half.

And every time Chelsea hit the woodwork, I grumbled PK's to myself.

Oh well.

I've always felt that PK's leave a certain incentive to hold back. I think they should get rid of them and find a better way.

I would just as soon watch them replay the game.

But I still the think the absence of the PK option would change tactics. If they know it simply will not end until someone scores, they will play differently. Perhaps they could start to remove 1 player per team every 5 minutes after 120 minutes.

One new idea supported by Sepp Blatter is for the penalty kicks to be taken after 90 minutes. But then for extra-time to be played anyway, with the result of penalty kicks only coming in to force if the game remains a draw after the full 120 minutes. Proponents of this idea state that it would lead to a more offensive extra-time as one of the teams would know they have to score and there would never be a match in which both teams are simply waiting for penalties. Another advantage is that players who have missed would have a chance to redeem themselves in extra-time. (Wiki)

Two points:

a) this is obviously _not_ the world's most significant sports event -- that would be the World Cup. Possibly of the year? But that would be the European Cup. I fear you are just wrong on this one, Dani.

b) While I am sorely aware of the unsatisfactory way to settle a game that penalty kicks are -- one of my earliest football memories was the painful elimination of Germany by Argentina in penalty kicks in the 1986 World Cup -- I always secretly hope for them. They are just sooooo nerve-wracking; and that is exciting and fun.

Holger,

GER-ARG '86 didn't end in PK's. It was 3-2 in the Final.

Not sure what you are talking about.

Dani, see it that way: Drogba was supposed to shoot the fifth, not Terry. And for Drobgas behavior, I guess a tragic end is what Chelsea deserved.

So, you are a MANU fan or have I been out of touch. I had the gut feeling this blog has something very good beyond the not-so-fun world of economics. I had been scared when Vidic and Rooney made Drogba mad with the diving comments. Benitez will tell you how costly such a comment could be when it invigorated Drogba and punish Liverpool. Not MANU. We are always ready for surprises!

On Terry: Every one had the same kick spot, so it was not other people's fault that they did not slip and this is not the first time this had happened (remember Beck's).

On Man u being the better side: Yes, Chelsea controlled the second half, but the game is not about controlling the ball, u have to score as well on that note Man u defended pretty well in the second half and did a good attacking job in the first half. So why making fuss about Chelsea being a better side in the second half...

PK: Things happen and eventually the better team own, yes you have to be lucky to win a PK. (fortune favors the brave...)

Lastly winning a double is not a every day (season) thing...it was quite an achievement and Man U proved again that it deserves to enjoy the reputation and fan base that it already has... and as a fan --- rightly so Man U is one of the greatest club in the world EVER !!!

For me the worst problem with PKs is that they require a "goat", because the expectation is that a PK should be converted. Terry, who played well during the match, and whose amazing head save of Gigg's shot got Chelsea into the PKs, has become defined as the goat. (Anelka will not carry quite the same baggage.) Had Terry's shot gone in, Ronaldo would have become the "goat" (tempered somewhat, but far from fully, by his first-half goal).

For me the worst problem with PKs is that they require a "goat", because the expectation is that a PK should be converted. Terry, who played well during the match, and whose amazing head save of Gigg's shot got Chelsea into the PKs, has become defined as the goat. (Anelka will not carry quite the same baggage.) Had Terry's shot gone in, Ronaldo would have become the "goat" (tempered somewhat, but far from fully, by his first-half goal).

My proposal is the collective penalty, much more in line with the essence of the game; 5 players against 3, having to convert in, say, 1 minute. More in http://www.nomorepenalties.blogspot.com/

Incidentally, the steely Germans -who actually invented the penalty shootouts- have never lost in World Cups through penalty kicks (4 out of 4 wins).

As always Economists have something to say about this issue.
Testing Mixed-Strategy Equilibria When Players Are Heterogeneous: The Case of Penalty Kicks in Soccer

http://pricetheory.uchicago.edu/levitt/Papers/ChiapporiGrosecloseLevitt2002.pdf

In football, the "overall quality of play" is less correlated with victory than in most other sports. Certainly less than any sport in which championships are settled in fewer than 7 games.

But that's partly why we love it.

In football, the "overall quality of play" is less correlated with victory than in most other sports. Certainly less than any sport in which championships are settled in fewer than 7 games.

But that's partly why we love it.

I'm glad for Carlitos TEvez that's a football player. His spirit defnies him as a player, talent and courage what else anyobody ask for a player to be?

Abuot PK's i think it's not the optimal way to define a game but it's the second best until a new invention or idea.

BTW, Dr. Rodrik...

Don't you have any love for a "hometown" team like Galatasarry or Fernerbace?


Seeing John Terry cry had the opposite effect in my house. This is the same John Terry who taunted American travelers in an airport after 9/11. The same John Terry who urinates on the floor of nightclubs. And the same John Terry who wiped his nose on Carlos Tevez's shirt just minutes before blowing the game. Couldn't have happened to a better person...

Best line I read following the finals: "If John Terry was taking Didier Drogba's place in the shootout, is that why he fell over in the penalty area without anyone touching him?"

Small comment, it is
"van der Sar" and not "van der Saar" (Saar is a Dutch girl's name...)

So, you should take a look at the equivalent of Championship League for the Americas (Copa Libertadores). One of the soccer matches in years just happened (Fluminense x São Paulo at maracanã) and the semi-finals are about to begin

The English top division recently changed its name. It is now called the "Premier League" and not the "Premiership". I hoped none of the teams would win. But what's the chance of an ever lasting penalty shoot-out? Lets say the referee gives up when the score is 617-617 and the crowds have left the stadium, the TV channels have switched back to Friends and Sex in the City, and the players have fallen asleep or passed out.

Two minor points on football terminology and history:

1) Man U won the "Champions League", not the "Championship League"

2)Regarding Holger Siebrecht's comment, Germany did not lose to Argentina in penalty kicks in 1986. It lost 3-2 in the final during regular time.

John V, how is it possible that I lived all my life with this painful memory even if it never occurred? Thanks for pointing it out. In the end, what counts is that we got them back in 1990.

i think luis felipe scolari,from brazil,will be the next chelseã coach.he is one of the bests. thanks and best regards

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