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April 17, 2008

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Justin Rietz

I'm a bit confused: if the government carries a big fiscal surplus, won't this drive up the value of the peso?

Ana C.

Merveilleux. You should visit Argentina twice a year.

Escriba

Dani:
The thing with dialogue with the private sector in Argentina is that most businessmen want the public sector to guarantee them profit in excange for nothing. They do not want to be competitive but instead to maintain a statu quo, even in social terms (they are not really worried for poverty or unemployment).
For me, it rings a bell for what Vivek Chibber tells us in "Locked in Place" for the Indian case.
In other terms: most of the private sector doesn't want dialogue but domination of the public sector. They want a weak state in order to obtain a lot, but giving very little.
My question is: ¿will poverty go down faster with less government spending? (There is a joke here in Argentina which says: "Government says distribution of income has already been accomplished, but that there wasnt't enough for all").

http://press.princeton.edu/titles/7685.html

Kramladen

Justin, it's the other way around: expansionary fiscal policy leads to an appreciation because it tends to increase interest rates (at least in theory). So restrictive fiscal policy is just doing the opposite.

Andres

i must say to you, that is a political decision from de government to mantain a depreciation of the peso... so this is not a causality from a fiscal policy, but instead, is product of a monetary policy of the central bank... to acts in the exchange market, for Keeping by this way the peso in his actual value.. (1 peso = u$s 3.15 aprox.).. By this..the country has a competitive currency and in this way, that acts as some kind of Protectionist barrier for the national industry...having as a result the development of it and the gaining of national and international markets.. it is a mechanism very interesting how the central bank injects money in the market when the dollar is falling to the peso, and then Sterilizes thoses emisions with bonds form the central bank (LEBACS and NOBACS).. trying to control by this the inflation rate...
In summary.. in argentina we have this exchange rate by the action of a monetary policy and not for the result of a fiscal one...

Andres

i must say that the value of u$s 1 = 3,15 pesos... sorry for that.. see you

Andres

SORRY FOR ThaT.. but a u$s 1 = 3.15 pesos...

opa

and because public spending mainly falls back on the non-tradable sector of the economy, pushing up prices and appreciating the exchange rate.
It could also be argued that a fiscal tightening reduces the risk premium, pulling in more money and it ends up appreciating the exchange rate.

Iván

Dani,
I agree with all your points except for the following sentence: "The weak currency has stimulated the right kind of structural change--from lower productivity activities to higher-productivity tradables--which is the source of the economy-wide increases in TFP we have seen".

First of all, I don't really see that the rise in TFP is due to a "structural change" in the economy. In fact, as your graph shows, only in the case of 2007 we can speak about a genuine rise in TFP respect to the '90s. I think that the overall rise of TFP ows more to the full-use of installed capacity (particularly for 2003, 2004 and 2005) than to a change in the economic structure. There has been, indeed, an expansion of dynamic high-productivty sectors (agroindustries and services, as you mentioned) but a big part of the expansion in manufacturing has taken place in sectors really behind the "technological frontier" (for instance, shoe, toy and some mechanical industries as well). The growth of this labor-intensive sectors has contributed enormously to the reduction of unemployment (although many of the jobs created aren't well paid and are very irregular in terms of social security coverage, for instance), but it hasn't really generated a structural change in the economy as they are extremely dependant on the real exchange rate being depreciated and on a great subsidy on energy prices. What is worse, the government doesn't seem interested in fostering the generation of a more genuine competitivity for this sectors apart from keeping the real exchange rate depreciated.

What I see is that the RER depreciation has boosted the output of many sectors in the economy, some of them quite dynamic and others not so much. Most of them (dynamic and not-so-much ones) had been completely erased during the RER-appreciated '90s. For this I give a credit to the depreciation of a RER that has taken place post-2002. But I think that now, with the economy back at full power, the challenge is to generate a real structural change - that is, to make the dynamic sectors be the core of the economic growth and not just one of its "participants". The lack of a development plan (or any kind of mid-term plan) expresses doubts, from my point of view, about the real conviction of the government in not wasting, as you say, this historic opportunity.

Dani Rodrik

Ivan --
I would just make this point: when a worker moves from informal employment to the manufacturing sector--even one that is behind the global technology frontier--this increases TFP in the economy and is the "right" kind of structural change.

Mark Manger

I wholeheartedly agree with your views on the role of exchange rate policy, and
yes, a lot is going right at the moment. But to achieve real structural change, Argentina would also need a major investment in its human capital to allow sustained productivity gains. Another unfortunate legacy of the Menem years was the destruction of an excellent education system, especially its outstanding vocational schools, because the market would supposedly supply education somehow. It rarely does so, if ever.

I have spoken to several executives who see a huge "generational skill gap." The country still has a few internationally competitive industries (energy-related engineering, for example), but they're living off their own substance.

Unfortunately, I do not see any such investment being made by the Kirchner government.

Elemaco

Dani: The employment informality has not decreased enough to be able to explain the TFP growth.

In fact, the informality and it's structural consolidation is one of the biggest flaws in the "Kirchner's Model"

In addition, Wages gaps between formal and informal sector has substantially increasy, contrary to whay one would expenct after 5 Years of growth.

We've reach a point where work is not enough to break the poverty line, (7% unemployment, +20% poverty) and the competitive real exchange alone doesn't seem to be doing a good work in changing this fact

Elemaco

Dani: The employment informality has not decreased enough to be able to explain the TFP growth.

In fact, the informality and it's structural consolidation is one of the biggest flaws in the "Kirchner's Model"

In addition, Wages gaps between formal and informal sector has substantially increasy, contrary to whay one would expenct after 5 Years of growth.

We've reach a point where work is not enough to break the poverty line, (7% unemployment, +20% poverty) and the competitive real exchange alone doesn't seem to be doing a good work in changing this fact

Iván

Dani,
thanks for the reply. I now understand better the point at which you were aiming. I should nevertheless say that informal employment still represents 40% of Argentina's total employment - even many jobs in the manufacturing sector share more than what they differ in with "informal" activities. So, although I agree that is better to have people working in the manufacturing sector and not selling hot dogs in a train station, my impression is that this change -at least in Argentina's case- doesn't have the enough "strength" to last for several years. The manufacturing sector is terribly dependent on the subsidies schemes implemented by the government. I would like to see the manfuacturing sector well fitted to survive the RER appreciation you say it's almost imminent even in the best of the circumstances.

Maybe my difference with what you say is more semantic - the adjective "structural" makes me think about something that is deeply rooted in the economy and it's destined to last for a long time. My impression is that it's now, in these days, when it will be decided whether this change in the economy is here to stay or not.

Thanks for having the possibility to share my humble views with you. It's always a great pleasure to read your blog! It would have been very interesting to have you as a speaker in the University of Buenos Aires :(

Nicolás

Dani: I'm an argentinian economy journalist. You've just explained the actual situation in my country really accurately. Now, how do we do to prevent the government to spoil an incredible opportunity?
Thanks

Justin Rietz

Kramladen-

In a free market with no intervening central bank (a rarity), a decrease in government debt would push downwards on interest rates, as you state. However, this push may be partially offset by the private demand for savings and investments.

Once the government is running a budget surplus, other factors come into play. If the government sits on its surplus, it has effectively reduced the money supply, thus raising the value of the currency. If the government uses its surplus to buy back existing debt (assuming such debt exists) this will push downwards on interest rates. Once there is no more debt to buy back, it becomes more constrained and the reduction in the money supply becomes a greater factor. In addition, such an economy would be viewed as incredibly stable, so we would expect an inflow of foreign capital from businesses seeing good growth opportunity - not all FDI is purely related to interest rates. The government could use some of its savings to offset this inflow, but now it would be getting into more complex policy territory. The stability of such "prudent" fiscal policies may also prompt local businesses to borrow more - especially if they need to buy more expensive foreign capital goods - again pushing upwards on interest rates.

ft

Escriba: You think, wrongly, that Argentine businessmen are different than in any other place. Already in 1776, Adam Smith thought that "Businessmen seldom gather together except to conspire against the public interest". Differences in behaviour and characteristics of the Argentine business "class" surely are due to the incentive structure they have faced for decades. Even today, under the Kirchners, businessmen who are "friends" with government are doing especially well.

ft

I'd like to correct my previous quote which, lazy me, I got by googling. It should really be: "People of the same trade seldom meet together, even for merriment and diversion, but the conversation ends in a conspiracy against the public, or in some contrivance to raise prices."

Ana C.

Strong assumptions, Justin Rietz. The argentinian government will have more than sufficient debt to buy back during the next few generations.

Justin Rietz

Dani -

At what point (if ever) does a government discontinue or phase-out its "currency undervaluation" policy, and how does it know when it has reached this point?

Frank

OK, Argentina is a nice country, very rich in natural resources and good soccer teams, but Peru is the new economic phenomena, higgh growth rates, high save rates, surplus in current account, surplus in fiscal budget and an exchange rate market with interventions every day. Recently, the central Bank increased the marginal reserve requierments for capital inflows!. I hope you can post something about Peru. Best wishes to argentineans, you have an economy very close to Peru, but more educated

MS

I think Argentina has already lost its opportunity. 2004, 05 where the years to make the economic reforms Argentina needed to become a more serious country. Remember I said more serious, talking about a big change.
For example: a needed tax reform (with surplus it was a great opportunity), from the coparticipation law, to a minor IVA (Value Added Tax). I can continued with a lot more of thing that this administration could have done, but now with inflation in levels around 20%, no credibility and a government base on confrontation, no on progress... all this makes impossible to take the opportunity.

I recall again; Argentina lost this opportunity, maybe somethings can be done yet. But if you think about the current problems in Argentina, you would arrive to the conclusion that they were all created during the period 2003 - 2007, knowing in advanced that will happen.

If you analyzed the economy of ARG, you have to analyzed politics and politicians. I haven´s seen any politician willing to accept the cost of becoming a more develop country. (Two years before such costs were to resign 5 point of growth, growing at a rate of 4,5%, not at 9%; and reducing a little public spending).

Regards, MS

Rodrigo

If nobody believes the oficial inflation figures in Argentina, why should we believe the oficial GDP deflator? I ask myself how much of the current real growth is just plain inflation...

Justin Rietz

Rodrigo -

We could look at money supply growth to get a better idea of "real" inflation. I don't have these numbers on hand, but I am sure they are available on the internet.

Escriba

FT:
In order to change that incentive structure you will need a stronger state, which businessmen here wouldn't like at all.

Per Kurowski

Capitalizing on a historic opportunity? That would really be a black swan event!

If you listen to the political discourse it is all about enjoying a historic opportunity, for all it is worth and for as long as it can last.

ft

Escriba: what do you mean by "stronger"? Less corrupt or more police?

Eco

Sorry to bring the abd news, but Prof. Rodrik's evaluation was a bit too Pollyanish.

My version of the story goes like this:

- since the crisis and default in the 2001-02, the financial system and the credibility of fiscal authorities was destroyed in Argentina;

- with the increase in commodity prices, the agricultural sector received a large windfall, which it would like to save in the form of financial assets;

- but with little investment opportunities, and complete mistrust of the financial sector and fiscal authorities, one of the most attractive alternatives available for saving the windfall is real estate;

- hence, there has been a construction boom in Argentina like it has never happened before. This boom has generated demand for manufacturing (steel, building materials) and has done wonders for the labor market.

- however, it is not sustainable. The tight labor market bids up wages; and the lack of productive investment in infrastructure and industrial capacity soon creates bottlenecks and inflation.

- to deal with the inflation, the government takes a command and control approach, including taxation of exports, price controls, "inflation index" control, weekly cabinet meetings to discuss the price of milk etc

- as a result, Argentina has grown by consuming its stock of productive capital (e.g. drop in cattle stock) and replacing it with new remodeled housing units.

The future is bleak and businessmen know that, because that is the same Peronist boom and bust cycle all over again.

Digo

Dani,

Argentina has lowered their interest rates a lot in order to "create" this growth you've seen in the last years, after a huge economic crisis. But now, we've seen a growing inflation rate to the level Brazil has experienced in the 1980 decade.

I wonder till what point the sacrifice of macroeconomic stability won't compromise the country's economic growth. The brazilian experience of hiperinflation its not positive, and I believe the higher interest rates and controlled inflation practiced in Brazil nowadays tends to produce a better macroeconomic outcome than Argentina's.

Brazil is growing with economic stability for almost a decade. Argentina experienced a crisis and may experience another one not so far in the future because of its inflation rate and low interest policy.

Do you think this macroeconomic policy still better adjusted notwithstanding its recent problems and that the outcome in the long run will be better than the brazilian one?

Eco

"Do you think this macroeconomic policy still better adjusted notwithstanding its recent problems and that the outcome in the long run will be better than the brazilian one?"

That is not an interesting question, since there are several weaknesses in the Brazilian economy too (that would be a long post).

The interesting comparison is with Chile, Colombia or Peru.

Sebastian

boy are people upset about Argentina, that's kind of surprising. It's really not what I'm seeing here, but OK.
Two newspaper pieces. La Nacion has an article (and foto ;-) about Dani's talk
http://buscador.lanacion.com.ar/Nota.asp?nota_id=1005375

and the Kirchners' seem to partly internalize Dani's message:
http://www.clarin.com/diario/2008/04/19/elpais/p-01901.htm
says that fiscal suprlus is up, partly because spending is being contained.

Btw. I'd actually be curious why you are so much against export taxes on agricultural goods. I see them mainly as redistributive policies that are quite effective, especially for a state that isn't terribly good at levying income taxes. So I think for a left-wing government they are very plausible (albeit, I'll agree, maybe a bit too high by now)

Eco

"and the Kirchners' seem to partly internalize Dani's message:
http://www.clarin.com/diario/2008/04/19/elpais/p-01901.htm
says that fiscal suprlus is up, partly because spending is being contained."

Did you read the article in the link? It says government expenditure is growing at 28 percent per year! That is a lot faster than nominal GDP... Te Argentinean authorities are doing everything but following Prof. Rodrik's advice... It is a fiscal folly.

Paula

Unfortunately this cannot be mended with fiscal surplus and dialogue and if this is the best underlying model in memory.... well we should be very scared.
The underlying model is one of "patch as you go". There is no long term strategy whatsoever. This is evident in the approach to agricultural policies, inflation and the energy sector (which has been operating at full capacity and is at the edge of malfunction).
If you add to the mix a miss match of subsidies and rampant corruption in their allocation, you have a recipe for disaster. One that Argentines know all too well.

Gabriel

Dani,
This is an old PhD student of yours at Columbia in the early 1990s. I respectfully disagree on your view regarding the productivity miracle. In a recent work we did for the IDB using the Growth Diagnostics Methodology we find that, after adjusting for capacity utilization and employment growth, TFP grew on average only 1.3% per year between 2003 and 2006. What is more, a careful growth accounting exercise shows that the acceleration of growth between 2003-2006 and the 1999-2002 collapse is explained 100% by bigger factor utilization, 46% by TFP growth acceleration and -46% in the decline in capital per worker. The contribution of TFP is much less than the 83% observed in the typical up changes in growth regimes observed by Jones and Olken (2005) in the five years after the break. This should come as no surprise since, while the investment rate has recovered and now is slightly bigger than in 1998 (when measured at constant prices), it has not shown the kind of increase that your work with Hausmann and Pritchett associates to sustained accelerations. Neither has the trade/GDP ratio risen (measured at constant prices) as much as observed in the sustained accelerations. Finally, there has not been much of a structural change. While manufacturing labor has gone, its share in total employment has remained mostly unchanged. This does not mean that some allocative improvements may have occurred, but they were certainly not large enough to make us bet on a sustained acceleration or on a growth regime change.
Finally, the change in the savings rate is the result of: a) the income re-distribution caused by the devaluation, b) the terms-of-trade shock, which is not all spent, c) the fiscal savings caused by the debt restructuring and d) the introduction of new taxes (like the export taxes), the revenues of which are not shared with the provinces. With the fiscal dynamics of Argentina, these savings hinge more and more on external prices and their impact on tax collection.
I agree with you that we are facing another lost opportunity, but this is not just the result of the government thuggish behavior.

Sebastian

Eco, I'm quite capable of reading, thank you. According to the article the fiscal surplus is increasing, because revenues grow faster than spending.

Now, how much of a problem is it that spending is growing faster than GDP - growth? Well, if I were a left-wing government and I'd face an economic growth that disproportionately favors the middle and upper class, my preferred policy would be to increase state revenues in order to fund social programs for the lowest third of the income distribution (which isn't doing all that well).
From what I'm learning (and I'll readily admit much of it I'm beginning to learn) many of those are quite well designed and, from all that I can tell, run.

As to the bitter tone of some of the posters here - I will say that a lot of this sounds like a political reaction to re-distributive policy to me.
The exchange rate isn't great for upper middle-class consumers (1990s overvaluation served them much better), neither is inflation, which, because of price controls on basic goods doesn't hurt lower classes as much. I could go on.

I mean - I'm certainly not a big fan of the Kirchners' leadership style, but I'd encourage you to consider your (I'd guess) economically rather priviledged situation and then ask yourself why the Kirchners are so popular with the people less priviledged than you are.
Of course there's an easy answer for you in blaming machine-politics, corruption, etc. You can also just claim that Kirchner's voters are stupid.
But maybe it's worth taking a moment to consider that they actually have good reasons to vote for the guy that redistributes in their favor, after being screwed by "their" government for decades.

Juan

Dani,

Pardon me for the snark, but how should I square the "primacy of institutions" with your recent positive comments about Argentina, whose government makes rules at it goes, expropriates farmers, utilities or whoever else is necessary to expropriate to reach their immediate macroeconomic goals?

Eco

"Now, how much of a problem is it that spending is growing faster than GDP - growth?"

That is not a problem if you do not care about inflation or about competitiveness of your non-traditional export sector.

"Well, if I were a left-wing government and I'd face an economic growth that disproportionately favors the middle and upper class, my preferred policy would be to increase state revenues in order to fund social programs for the lowest third of the income distribution (which isn't doing all that well)."

It is a good and simple rule dating back to Keynes that nominal government expenditure should grow above/below nominal GDP growth when the economy is in a recession/in a boom, i.e. government expenditure should act as a stabilizer of economic fluctuations (as opposed to exacerbating them).

If you are a honest left-wing (or right-wing) government facing a boom driven by export prices, you would try really hard not to grow expenditure faster than nominal GDP so as to avoid loss of competitiveness and abrupt expenditure cuts when the external fuel for your boom runs out.

Argentina should be running much larger fiscal surpluses.

"As to the bitter tone of some of the posters here - I will say that a lot of this sounds like a political reaction to re-distributive policy to me.
The exchange rate isn't great for upper middle-class consumers (1990s overvaluation served them much better), neither is inflation, which, because of price controls on basic goods doesn't hurt lower classes as much. I could go on."

Not sure what good does inflation do to the poor.
Also not sure what good does fiscal vulnerability do either.

"I mean - I'm certainly not a big fan of the Kirchners' leadership style, but I'd encourage you to consider your (I'd guess) economically rather priviledged situation and then ask yourself why the Kirchners are so popular with the people less priviledged than you are."

Because people do not understand economics and give credit to the Kirchners for good times driven by positive external factors.

"Of course there's an easy answer for you in blaming machine-politics, corruption, etc. You can also just claim that Kirchner's voters are stupid."

It does not have to be stupidity. It reflects a poor political education that comes from Argentina's limited experience with democracy. If Argentineans understood that, they would live like Spaniards.

"But maybe it's worth taking a moment to consider that they actually have good reasons to vote for the guy that redistributes in their favor, after being screwed by "their" government for decades."

Not sure about this... Kirchner is only repeating Peron's policies of burdening the export sector. The same ones that set back Argentina's economy for more than half a century and counting. Well, maybe it is indeed stupidity.

NPTO

Rodrigo's point is very good. Can we trust the GDP deflator? If we can do that, why can't we find out the real rate of inflation?

Eco

Inflation measured by the private consumption deflator was 14.6 percent in 2007Q4 up from 9.5 percent in 2006Q4, so perhaps their national accounts may well be right

Nicolas

Rodrik´s visits your blog. I leave for you a document on Argentina in which I am working on the life cost. Greeting, Nicolas

http://eltabloide.wordpress.com/2007/11/27/evolucion-del-costo-de-vida-en-argentina-2003-2007/

Matías

TFP measures the weighted average of the growth of wages and profits. It does NOT and cannot measure productivity. It is surprising that supposedly well educated economists still use it. By the way, the government does not control the media, that has been thuggish with the government. The idea that Argentina is not democratic is a joke. Get real!

Eco

"TFP measures the weighted average of the growth of wages and profits. It does NOT and cannot measure productivity. "

Good one, Matias, nothing like an original economista!

Me, the stupid, think that TFP means total factor productivity and indeed measures productivity.

Eco

agustin

Dr Rodrik,

You miss a key detail on your view point. Much of the investment in Arg is due to construction. Could it be that part of what you attribute to "productive transformation" is actually risk aversion to the financial sector?

Sandro Perricelli

Caro Dani,

Isn't it high time for you to revisit your thoughts about Argentina?

SP

Test Test

"I'm a bit confused: if the government carries a big fiscal surplus, won't this drive up the value of the peso?"

I think it would drive up its value in terms of foreign currencies--the exchange rate. This would lower the cost of foreign goods when bought inside the contry--which is disinflationary.

Running a large government surplus means the government is buying less--which is also disinflationary.

A highly valued currency means it buys a lot of stuff. This is the opposite of inflation--which is a low valued currency that doesn't by anything.

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Do you think this macroeconomic policy still better adjusted notwithstanding its recent problems and that the outcome in the long run will be better than the brazilian one?

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And that is a pity, because there is a lot that is going right with the Argentine economy today. The underlying model is much more sound than anything in memory. There is nothing wrong with it that a larger fiscal surplus and a bit of dialog between the public and private sectors would not cure.


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I ask myself how much of the current real growth is just plain inflation...

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