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March 26, 2008

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robertdfeinman

I think you are being too modest. I'm in the midst of your two chapters on governance (7 and 8) and I think this is the most important part of your book.

Having real democratic institutions is the best path to good governance. If things don't work out as well as desired, at least the people made their own choices. Some things are worthwhile goals in themselves, regardless of whether they produce "growth" at a rate desired by globalization promoters.

The second point has to do with implementation. Good governance implies taking away some privilege from those who benefit from bad governance. This can range from corrupt local officials to multi-nationals making money from sweetheart deals with undemocratic regimes.

Perhaps economists don't think that implementation is part of their remit, but then why do they offer procedural advice?

Chandan

I look forward to reading your stuff on governance...I think there will be a bit more than what is in the book...the book is fantastic...

abhay

I have just finished reading "Blood River: A Journey to Africa's Broken Heart" by Tim Butcher. He describes his journey through the Congo trying to follow the route taken by Henry Morton Stanley (of 'Dr Livingstone, I presume' fame). It comes as a shock that despite the millions poured in to development -the Congo is arguably no better off, and in many respects worse off, then in the 1870s. With respect to the issue of governance there are two quotes in the book that are interesting. The first, variations of which recur through the book, is from one of the Congolese he meets who says "There is no law here. That is what we need more than anything. A sense of the law and a sense that there is some one to enforce it. Without that there is chaos". The second is from an European associated with the ruling elite in the Congo -he says- "If you think you can solve Africa's problem wuth money, then you are a bloody fool. You solve Africa's problems by creating a system of justice that actually works and by making the leaders accountable for their actions". He wryly admits that "If that happens, I guess things would get a lot more competitive for my business (mining cobalt for export to China) but it would be good for Africa. Development economists ignore legal systems and democratic institutions and focus on "development goals" will find as Tim Butcher did that even a 100 years from now we may not have progressed very far from the standards of Victorian Africa.

Richard Woodward

Here is what I think is wrong with this posting and the Economist article referred to in the March 14 posting on the same subject: When was the last time you saw someone publish a regression with only one explanatory variable? In economics, at least, counterexamples (e.g. China, Vietnam, Cambodia) don't constitute falsification. Governance quality may indeed have a lot of power to explain variation in economic performance, but only a fool would think it is the only one. The performance of China and Vietnam is likely to be determined by other variables, and this doesn't mean there is no relationship between governance quality and economic performance. A comparison of governance quality and economic performance in the former Soviet countries with those in the formerly Communist new EU member states strongly suggests such a relationship (though this fact alone does not, of course, constitute proof of the relationship, either). And one other thing: trends matter as well as levels (stocks vs. flows). China and Cambodia might not be well governed now, but compared to the days of Mao and the Khmer Rouge ...

MK

One of the things I have been thinking about is the interaction between the two types of governance and the outcome they produce. That is, if outside/international actors promote governance-as-an-end, what impact does that have on governance-as-a-means? My guess is that the effects are not very good, which is related to the ideas in your "Second-Best Institutions" paper...

Deb Perlman

These issues of defining and measuring good governance and what kind of effect good governance really has on growth are major topics of discussion around the World Bank. And for the region I work on, East Asia and the Pacific, your examples of China, Vietnam and Cambodia are especially fascinating. (we'll be writing more about this soon at eapblog.worldbank.org) Finding ways to connect up the impact of the "means" with longer-term good governance outcomes ("ends") is a key challenge for us right now. How do you define which "governance in the small" changes really predict better governance, when there are so many possible paths to and approaches to good governance?

Per Kurowski

What should a World Bank economist know about governance and growth?

Easy answer!

The importance of being very clear about: the governance by whom, and the growth for whom.

The biggest confusions that I have seen in this respect is when World Bank economists have teamed up on the government side, which is anyhow quite logical given that they are their direct bosses, but ending up working against the interests of the people.

Example:

“Dear government privatize this electrical distribution company and offer some future high rate adjustments (defended on the based of this questionable model) and that way you can obtain a very good price for it; and thereby get your hands on plenty of resources to spend on your favorite projects… and not having to worry about repaying loans or such nonsense… as the electrical consumers will take care of that for you by paying the higher than needed tariffs. Of course, please make sure though that the tariff increases occur somewhat down the line, since we do not want to be so transparent that the consumer, following the dots, makes the connection.”

inthemachine

I disagree. In my experience, the real problem has been too much of a distinction between governance as a means and governance as an ends (and I have worked for organizations that pursue each of these goals). The unfortunate reality is that if you do not think about governance as something that must serve as an effective means to govern (including the management of scarce resources), you simply can not get governance as an end. The converse is also true. If you think only about what institution is needed to enable a particular aspect of the economy or the market to work, and you ignore the larger interlocking framework of governing institutions (including the ways people move in and out of said institutions), you can not get the sustainability needed to actually serve the function in the long run.

The problem is that people want to see it as an either/or question (do you want governance as a means or an ends), which is a bit like asking if monetary policy must be for fighting inflation or maximizing employment. You can ask for instructional purposes, but if you actually force someone to choose between one and the other, you pre-empt the (more difficult, but likely more effective) efforts to optimize.

Paul Hanna

As you say, governance is "transparency, accountability, rule of law, and bureaucratic competence and effectiveness." Let's break apart governance into its constituent components and run the regression on each aspect of governance separately. I would argue, as mentioned by abhay, that rule of law may trump the other components in its effects on growth. Hence why China, Vietnam, Singapore, etc have grown so remarkably while still retaining poor overall governance ratings.

Living in Lebanon and watching the functioning anarchy that is this beautiful country, I've never appreciated the rule of law more.

hari

Dani -

I disagree vehemently with the export of US/UK type of democracy and good governance conceptual framework for small and backward developing societies.

From experience, I've learnt how to get rid of IBRD/IMF advisors with a simple chit or oder for their dispatchment - since most of them are morons!!!

Try and first understand the socio-economic structure of the society you are trying to reform, so you don't get yourself entangled with foreign jargon no one can understand or accept out right....

If 8yrs of GWB is called good governance ...then wish you luck!

mohammad

I look forward for reading your paper or writing about didtinction between them ( tow models og governence?) in Iran this discussion is very very important and every day Iranian economists speak about it. maybe your answer to be a good answer for them. i wait...

nancy birdsall

Dani: Designing institutional arrangements for specific policy reforms targeted at binding growth constraints (your words on how economists can contribute to governance) sounds inconsistent with One Economics: Many Recipes -- unless you mean doing so in particular contexts-- one country at a time?

Dani Rodrik

But Nancy, of course I mean it in one country at a time...or at least with specific contexts clearly laid out.

Jon Stern

I strongly approve of approaching "governance" in the small.

What's appropriate for an individual country on (a) governance of infrastructure regulation may well be very different from (b) governance of financial regulation (or public service provision or competition policy or ....).

Similarly, the institutional design of governance that is appropriate for a country in any of these area may well be non-transferable to others. Compare the range of governance arrangements for any such areas across European Union states let alone between (i) UK and Jamaica and Nigeria or (ii) France and Senegal and Chad.

But, there are surely some commonalities. Maybe it's primarily in the area of enforcement of agreements and a (relatively wide) notion of the rule of law. It's the Kauffmann rule of law index which is the only governance indicator that I've got to show up positively (if very weakly) in my regressions on infrastructure investment.

Jon Stern

delphine

I am not sure governance (as you define it) cannot be improved in the time horizons policy-makers care about, i.e, a decade. Take Latvia for example: it grew at a rates consistently exceeding 6% per year, often exceeding 9%, between 2003 and 2007 (Eurostat figures). In the time span directly preceding this one, 4 out of the 6 governance
indicators as measured by the World Bank Institute (control of corruption, rule of law, government effectiveness, and political stability) improved significantly, every year measured (1996, 1998, 2000, 2002) with low error margins. The remaining two indicators (voice, and regulatory quality) also improved on average. All regressions show strong positive correlation.

Now correlation is not causality, even if governance improvements took place before strong growth, as in my example.
But if you loook more closely at the institutional and governance reforms Latvia implemented in the early 1990s, as part of the
EU accession pull-effect, in terms of property rights, access to information, commercial law, etc, you would see
how such reforms, bearing fruit in the late 1990s, made the country more attractive to foreign investors, eventually resulting in the
high growth rates of this decade (Europe's highest). It can be done!

Martin Allsworth

You recently acknowledged that you, like most economists, only have a weak grasp of what set phrases on governance4growth like 'rule of law' or 'secure property rights' really mean. Exploring the interlinkage between the intrinsic and instrumental dimenions to governance would be greatly improved by much better analysis of the political processes and informal as well as formal insitutions that translate these abstract concepts into real differences to economic growth - that would then explain why China, Vietnam and Cambodia have a rotten investment climate if judged by the normative stadnards of 'Doing Business' type indicators, yet deliver 8+% pa growth and poverty reduction

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