« One economics, again | Main | WTO strikes against China »

February 13, 2008

TrackBack

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.typepad.com/services/trackback/6a00d8341c891753ef00e5503d03a78833

Listed below are links to weblogs that reference A new paradigm in development economics?:

Comments

jose carlos

hi dani, liked very much your post. but i feel you tend to dismiss case studies as mostly 'just stories'. if this is the world of uncertainty and multiple equilibria, and self-discovery is the way to go, we need more and better 'development narratives' too. like the work of tendler or evans, which i find way more insightful than most of the narratives of the volume you edited.

Greg

Sachs, Easterly, Collier?

Ron

what's needed is a venture capitalist approach to development. Try a whole bunch of things with the understanding early on that 90% of those trials will fail (meaning you leave people no better off than they started). But when you hit upon the 10% that succeed, you uncover the Google of development

David Bonbright

I agree with your observation and see the same hopeful trend that you do. I work with a UK-based international citizen organization that seeks to maximize the developmental impact of citizen organizations, business and government, through designing and promoting innovative, practical methods of planning, doing and communicating that foster learning and responsiveness among all constituents. We believe that organizations function best when they listen and respond to those most affected by their activities. Our methodology helps civil society organizations to be inclusive and responsive in their engagement with constituents, systematic in their learning, and transparent in their public reporting. We have developed a suite of free-to-use prototype tools and offer advisory services that citizen organizations (as well as businesses that seek to maximize their social value) can use to plan and learn with their constituents, in an ecology of actors, for significant and lasting social change. We also seek to influence policy and practice for social impact through strategic research and publications. www.keystoneaccountability.org.

haider A. Khan

Indeed this humble approach is ultimately more rational than applying"rational expectations". A combination of a case-by-case approach where learning plays a key role can help us economists learn better where the pitfalls in policy making in specific contexts might lie. One of the challenges, of course, is to design appropriate institutional feed back processes. This approach can, I think, be applied to macro, meso and micro levels.Contrary to what some may think, this approach can also be formalized to some extent so that the charges of loose or unrigorous thinking can not be so easily levelled at this approach. Of course, your own work, Dani and some of your quasi-methodological observations on this blog illustrate this point. In my 2004 book on financial crises, I tried to show how banks in Taiwan (and perhaps elsewhere) could learn from past data on default rates and other relevant information but that this learning was a case of fuzzy logic and "bounded rationality".
The question was:Can banks learn to be realtively more rational in their lending activities? The answer depends on the institutionally bounded constraints to learning. From an evolutionary perspective the functionality (for survival) of "learning to be rational" creates strong incentives for such learning without, however, guaranteeing that each member of the particular economic species actually achieves increased fitness. I investigate this issue for a particular economic species, namely, commrercial banks in Taiwan. The purpose of this exercise was to illustrate the key issues related to learning in an economic model. I ended up by proposing a new screening model for bank commercial loans that uses the neuro fuzzy technique. The technical modeling aspect is integrally connected in a rigorous way to the key conceptual and theoretical aspects of the capabilities for learning to be rational in a broad but precise sense. This approach also compared the relative predictability of loan default among three methods of prediction--- discriminant analysis, logit type regression, and neuro fuzzy--- based on the real data obtained from one of the banks in Taiwan.The neuro fuzzy model, in contrast with the other two, incorporates recursive learning in a real world, imprecise linguistic environment. The empirical results show that in addition to its better screening ability, the neuro fuzzy model is superior in explaining the relationship among the variables as well. With further modifications,this model could be used by bank regulatory agencies for loan examination and by bank loan officers for loan review. The main theoretical conclusion to draw from this demonstration is that non-linear learning in a vague semantic world is both possible and usefulif prper attention is paid to contextuality. Therefore the search for alternatives to the full neoclassical rationality and its equivalent under uncertainty---rational expectations--- is a plausible and desirable search, especially when the probability for convergence to a rational expectations equilibrium is low.

Tim Worstall

"Increasingly, some people are saying the right way to approach development policy is to start with the view that we actually don't know where the problems lie, to acknowledge that the key problems may differ from setting to setting, and to adopt an explicitly experimental attitude to policy selection and formulation so that you can learn about the environment in which you operate. In this approach, monitoring and evaluation are key, as you want to pull back from mistakes and improve policies over time."

Umm, isn't this just a restatement of the more markets approach? Markets are, in one formulation at least, the best method of discovery that we have.

Jonathan Davies

Dani

As a graduate student at UEA in the early 1980s a key text was Dennis Rondelli's "Development Projects as Policy Experiments" (1983). I have been fortunate to work for many years in developing countries working with development agencies, governments and civil society groups looking for solutions (usually seeking your second-best institutions). The 'pick-and-mix' approach is the only way forward. The difficulty often lies with donor's fixed ideas and development fashions.

Barkley Rosser

I am wondering if this posting is at least partly a reply by Dani to my request to him to comment on behavioral approaches. These tend to be closely linked to experimental economics, although they are not identical, and he here is, more or less favoring "field experiments," if with some caveats. I applaud.

Of course, within experimental economics there ia a large war going on now between advocates of lab and field experiments, with the former criticizing the lack of controls in the latter and the latter criticizing the potential unreality and framing that can go on in the former. Of course, most observers say "do both," but when limited funding is involved, people can get nasty.

In any case, I would guess that field experiments may have an edge in developing countries, although lab experiments may be useful in pinpointing specific behavioral differences that occur in specific societies, which seems to be part of the theme here, that there may be different strokes for different folks.

bee

I'm pleased to see that development economists are beginning to embrace the concept that lies behind contingency theory. Maybe we will finally begin to make progress in this field that translates into material insight into development.

david

"I think randomized field experiments have serious limitations and problems of generalizability ("external validity" to use the jargon) and that we can actually learn from a variety of other types of evidence."

Yep-- but I can't imagine anyone thinking differently and being taken seriously. I know they do and are; it just doesn't register as possible in a world of sensible people.

jon

Dani,

Interesting post. I'm fairly new to the world of development economics as an academic discipline, though having worked on some of the development "front lines" in the areas of HIV/AIDS and agriculture I'm certainly familiar with how those economics often play out in the real world. For a variety of reasons I'm trying to become more conversant in the somewhat more ephemeral world of academics/policy and so far my reading has taken me through what I'm fairly certain are your three most vocal proponents of the three most common schools of thought. However, I haven't found myself comfortable with any of those positions in and of themselves and I am now very intrigued by your so called "new paradigm in development economics" - for one reason because it sounds very similar to how good ag development happens - and I am wondering if you can point me in the direction to where I might read something from folks who are thinking and working in this direction - authors, journals, organizations - any and all would be welcome. Thanks, I always enjoy your blog and find it good food for thought.

scott Bayley

The work of UK evaluators Pawson and Tilley (they wrote the book 'Realistic Evaluation') helps to put Dani's comments into a broader evaluation context and also shows how to deal with the issue of 'external validity' in evaluation research. Pawson & Tilley like to advocate that outcome evaluations should focus on:
-What works?
-For who?
-In what circumstances? and
-How?

They believe that this approach offers much better 'contextually relevant' evidence for decision-makers compared to the traditional experimental approach (see the bottom of page 2 of the article below. The paragraph that starts off 'Realistic evaluation takes a different view of what constitutes experimentation from that which has come to prevail in orthodox evaluation circles').

http://www.danskevalueringsselskab.dk/pdf/Nick%20Tilley.pdf

Searle88


What is required is a new paradigm. My work in progress project maybe of interest. It is called Transfinancial Economics

http://www.p2pfoundation.net/Transfinancial_Economics

dissertation writing help

Excellent Blog every one can get lots of information for any topics from this blog nice work keep it up.

dissertation writing help

Thanks a lot for a bunch of good tips. I look forward to reading more on the topic in the future. Keep up the good work! This blog is going to be great resource. Love reading it

Dissertation Examples

Excellent post and wonderful blog, I really like this type of interesting articles keep it up.

Thanks a lot!!!

Buy Viagra

HI great article
I really enjoy reading this blog
thanks I said in my comments following her presentation, this is nothing less than a paradigm change in development. It is extremely encouraging that people who are approaching development from rather different ends are converging on an identical perspective on how you think about development policy.very interesting thanks

Generic Viagra

HI The third group thinks the problem is lousy governments, so the answer lies with improved governance. I leave it to the reader to identify these positions with their most distinguished (or at least most vocal) representatives...I think like them

Masters Dissertation Help

Whenever i see the post like your's i feel that there are still helpful people who share information for the help of others, it must be helpful for other's. thanx and good job.

http://www.mastersdissertation.co.uk/

Dissertation Proposal

well its soo good to see this information in your post, i was looking the same but there was not any proper resource, thanx now i have the thing which i was looking for my research.

DAnndy

People have a lot of life problems but despite of that they still have to compose the descriptive essay topics. But at this time they must not worry about that, simply because they would use your fantabulous note related to this good topic as an example for for writing. Another way, this seems to be available to go to essayscentre.com to purchase the research analysis paper. Moreover, that is very fast.

rado watches

Why is everyone just montblanc watches willing to accept power cuts? Don't you think that patek philippe watches having continious power is your right? If people aren't going to demand rado watches 24X7 power, don't expect anything zenith watches to change. The government needs to look at other sources parmigiani watches of power generation. The only solution is more power panerai watches production. Nothing less.
http://www.watchvisa.com/montblanc-watches.html
http://www.watchvisa.com/patek_philippe-watches.html
http://www.watchvisa.com/rado-watches.html

runescape gold

Contents of the article you are very rich, very beautiful picture very interesting, I love it. Thanks!

nike kicks

o how good ag development happens - and I am wondering if you can point me in the direction to where I might read something from

rolex watches

People usually say :"Seeing is believing." http://www.tt88times.com
Each attempt has a corresponding gain, in part or obvious, or vague. At least we have the kind of satisfaction After I bought this watch ,in a sense,it means a great deal to me. http://www.fashionhairfu.com

Nike Air Jordan

The good news, thank you!

Nike Air Jordan

The good news, thank you!

who called me

Within experimental economics there ia a large war going on now between advocates of lab and field experiments, with the former criticizing the lack of controls in the latter and the latter criticizing the potential unreality and framing that can go on in the former. Of course, most observers say "do both," but when limited funding is involved, people can get nasty.

runescape gold


ISO New England, which operates the region's six-state power grid, forecast demand Wednesday would reach 27,000 MW for a second day in a row, beating last year's peak, but still about 1,000 MW shy of the August 2006 record of 28,130 MW.

http://www.mbtsandal.com

Why we choose [url=http://www.mbtsandal.com/mbt-panda-c-12.html]MBT Panda[/url]? Because [url=http://www.mbtsandal.com/mbt-kisumu-c-9.html]MBT Kisumu[/url] is totally different with other footwear. MBT is very special, it has a positive on the entire body, not just the feet. MBT shoes actives your muscles instead of
undermining them. It is unstable, not stable.
The sole is curved, not flat.In other words: It is the antithesis of a shoe.
The mission of our [url=http://www.mbtsandal.com/mbt-imara-c-8.html]Discount MBT lmara Shoes[/url]: To make people all over the world aware if the benefiits of MBT and to help them live healthier and better liver.
Wholesale MBT shoes, MBT shoes discount, cheap MBT right now, hope you could grab the chance.

http://www.mbtsandal.com

Why we choose [url=http://www.mbtsandal.com/mbt-panda-c-12.html]MBT Panda[/url]? Because [url=http://www.mbtsandal.com/mbt-kisumu-c-9.html]MBT Kisumu[/url] is totally different with other footwear. MBT is very special, it has a positive on the entire body, not just the feet. MBT shoes actives your muscles instead of
undermining them. It is unstable, not stable.
The sole is curved, not flat.In other words: It is the antithesis of a shoe.
The mission of our [url=http://www.mbtsandal.com/mbt-imara-c-8.html]Discount MBT lmara Shoes[/url]: To make people all over the world aware if the benefiits of MBT and to help them live healthier and better liver.
Wholesale MBT shoes, MBT shoes discount, cheap MBT right now, hope you could grab the chance.

http://www.mbtsandal.com

I already have my [url=http://www.mbtsandal.com/mbt-changa-c-17.html]MBT Changa[/url] shoes more than 6 months - using mainly taken the 3-4 mile walk. Once you become comfortable walking shoes, main battle tanks, you will find that your leg muscles work the way you will not encounter in normal shoes. For the first few times you wear, about 20 minutes after the pain disappears, it seems effortless and walking.
Shorten your stride, faster, of course, you go straight you pull back and stomach in.
You may have heard on one of the points is to go a mile in the main battle tank shoes, walking shoes are common in the exercise equivalent of two miles. I can not find any research confirms this view.
Personally, I noticed that my muscles get more exercise when I wear [url=http://www.mbtsandal.com/mbt-chapa-gtx-c-18.html]Cheap MBT Chapa GTX Shoes[/url]. Since I bought them, I would like to walk more and longer distances, leading to weight loss.
I have chronic back pain my entire adult life, and to walk in these shoes shift away the pressure on my back. I have discussed, who also has a few people [url=http://www.mbtsandal.com/mbt-lami-c-24.html]Discount MBT Lami Shoes[/url], they say, they are the only shoes to wear, because they reduce their back pain.

http://www.mbtsandal.com

Your passion walker fitness or weight in different ways? Is there a better option is to [url=http://www.mbtsandal.com/mbt-mwalk-c-25.html]MBT M.WALK[/url] shoes. Your shoes will improve posture, strengthen the main battle tanks for sale many different muscles and help burn more calories. But you may decide to buy a stumbling block, the price is in his shoes. Not everyone can afford sneakers.The way, we main battle tank manufacturers, direct impact on our health. If we go straight to the Health and spinal cord is still the correct position of the knee. On the contrary, if we follow the wrong attitude, we have to have some physical pain.
So I decided to go to Marseilles, [url=http://www.mbtsandal.com/mbt-sport-c-29.html]Discount MBT Sport Shoes[/url], barefoot shoes clean technology. The technology for the manufacture of main battle tanks and sports shoes.
Doctors and physical therapists are so fascinated, their ultimate use and recommend these [url=http://www.mbtsandal.com/mbt-sport-grey-c-3.html]MBT Sport Grey[/url] shoes, their patients.

free web directory

DMOZ4U is a quality Free Web Directory, human edited Free Web Directory with quality internet resources. Submit free link, or find websites of your choice.

MapleStory Mesos

I am glad to talk with you and you give me great help! Thanks for that, I am wonderring if i can contact you via email when i meet problems?

nfl mlb nhl nba jerseys

I like these articles , democratic countries formulate policies are both team and the interests of the people of power, but the undemocratic countries rarely for the interests of the people, http://www.jerseysky.com it is the sorrow of many democracy, I like the western and northern state policy.
http://www.cheapsaleing.com
http://www.nikeairmaxshoe.ocm

nfl mlb nhl nba jerseys

I like these articles , democratic countries formulate policies are both team and the interests of the people of power, but the undemocratic countries rarely for the interests of the people, http://www.jerseysky.com it is the sorrow of many democracy, I like the western and northern state policy.
http://www.cheapsaleing.com
http://www.nikeairmaxshoe.ocm

Runescape gold

Classic exposition, I have also mentioned it in my blog article. But it is a pity that almost no frienddiscussed it with me. I am very happy to see your article.

jordan shoes

I am happy to find this post very useful for me, as it contains lot of information. I always prefer to read the quality content and this thing I found in you post. Thanks for sharing.

jordan shoes

I am happy to find this post very useful for me, as it contains lot of information. I always prefer to read the quality content and this thing I found in you post. Thanks for sharing.

jordan shoes

I am happy to find this post very useful for me, as it contains lot of information. I always prefer to read the quality content and this thing I found in you post. Thanks for sharing.

jordans for sale

I think this is a great post. One thing that I find the most helpful is number five. Sometimes when I write, I just let the flow of the words and information come out so much that I loose the purpose. It’s only after editing when I realize what I’ve done. There’s defiantly a lot of great tips here I’m going to try to be more aware of.

jordan shoes

I’ve seen progression in every post. Your newer posts are simply wonderful compared to your posts in the past. Keep up the good work!

vertu

Really wonderful piece of information and I appreciate it that you share something so useful with the readers of this blog


Runescape powerleveling

I tried to think so, but i found it was not as the same in the actual process. As you mentioned, I still have doubts, but really thank you for sharing!

weddingdresses

The first stage Wedding Dresses of spring wedding will give you so many things to plan and organize. Taking some time first to think and jot down some initial wedding ideas or Evening Gowns themes is really important before referring to any wedding vendors or Evening Dresses
venues. In this way, you will be able to easily conceptualize the perfect touches Quinceanera Dresses for your spring wedding day.As we all know, spring is the mark of time of birth and renewal. Having your wedding in this beautiful season can bestow a marriage life full of excitement and adventure.

yiwu

Thank you for the information!i am glad to review it with the nice and clean UI,and your shaing also makes this compsition moved.

louis vuitton sneakers

Thanks for sharing your article. I really enjoyed it. I put a link to my site to here so other people can read it. My readers have about the same interets

cheap gucci

Good post, I can’t say that I agree with everything that was said, but very good information overall:)

Account Deleted

Have you ever tried to write a Term paper? Writing does not come naturally to many students; they found themselves often clueless and tired. What they need is little bit guidance and assistance to get an excellent term paper.

Term Paper Writing

Account Deleted

This site gives complete information from the perspective of Dubai deals & promotions who want to visit this biggest city.

Dubai Electronics

3Dhomemovies

Even if I don't always agree with your posts, I always appreciate reading them. Columbus Hotels

Ohioguide

Even if I don't always agree with your posts, I always appreciate reading them. Columbus Hotels

renl

Nice article, great!I like it, thanks for sharing it with us. its worth reading!

Sell House |
Wholesale Real Estate

Account Deleted

Until very recently, if you spent anytime thinking about development policy, the chances are that you fell into one of three groups. One group believes the problem with developing countries is lack of resources.
Wholesale Beads store

Account Deleted

Sachs, Easterly, Collier?

Account Deleted

Raf
raf

Thanks for this ...

Account Deleted

there is an usual portion that real estate agents and companies suppose to get as commission. The percentage varies from location to location, and most likely depends on whether the real estate is for residential or commercial purpose.

Commercial Real Estate

Account Deleted

Many places and centers offer business and trade promotions to both buyers and supplier.What about the differences in skill intensities across industries? The job losses in the relatively unskilled-labor intensive battery industry should have little effect on the relatively skilled-labor intensive machinery
sexshop
sexyshop
sexshop online

Account Deleted

If you need more traffic to your website check out the website in my name. It really helped me and i think it can help your website.

organic seo service

Account Deleted

powerpoint corrupt

Good Post.It's really helpful & interesting

Account Deleted

we offer is excellent term papers within few hours with minimum requirements as our experts writers make a large number of peak value study papers and have get access to both to personal libraries and archives.


Paper writing

Verify your Comment

Previewing your Comment

This is only a preview. Your comment has not yet been posted.

Working...
Your comment could not be posted. Error type:
Your comment has been posted. Post another comment

The letters and numbers you entered did not match the image. Please try again.

As a final step before posting your comment, enter the letters and numbers you see in the image below. This prevents automated programs from posting comments.

Having trouble reading this image? View an alternate.

Working...

Post a comment