... is Arminio Fraga, central banker extraordinaire and a terrific economist. In any meritocratic search, he would have to come out on or very near the top. But he has the wrong nationality for the job. Europeans are mulling European names, as tradition demands.
UPDATE: Mali asks what my views are on
the new IMF decision on exchange rate surveillance .... Basically now for each country's report, Fund staff have to provide a view whether the exchange rate is misaligned, and by how much, according to various methods/measurements (which the results sometimes vary in great magnitude and direction).
This is a complicated one, because a country's exchange rate policy has obvious externalities for other countries. So this cannot be a free-for-all and there is indeed some role for exchange-rate surveillance. But if you take the view, as I do, that exchange-rate undervaluation is a second-best policy to overcome distortions in tradable industries, then it is also the case that you must provide developing countries with some leeway in their conduct of exchange-rate policy. The IMF gets it particularly wrong when it says it will use management of the capital account as an indication of currency manipulation--but that is yet another story. My concern is that the developmental role of currency policies is being neglected in all the focus on "external stability." I hope to return to this topic later.