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April 24, 2007

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Karl Smith

Very interesting.

So, my first thought is that this indicates that at some level lack of growth is lack of entry into enough product markets.

Can we safely say that slow growing countries are not entering the markets for moe "complex" products or is the relationship more sophisticated than that.

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Luis Enrique

This does look very interesting.

The link to the paper contains a blank page for now, so without having read it, my guess is that the policy implications are ambigous.

Assuming that the majority of investment is in the private sector (I don't know that) then the data observed reflects investors having seen a profitable opportunity, and these are the results in the businesses they have built.

If you change the way that investment decisions are taken by, for example, introducing a policy of investing in diverse sectors where no entrepreneur has yet seen an opportunity and invested already, because you have read this paper and think it will lead to growth, then observed behaviour may change.

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Could it be that this is simply the law of one price at work? If capital is very mobile, transportation cheap and trade free, there should be absolute equality in productivity in export goods So this may simply be an endogenous outcome and not a policy variable.

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