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April 20, 2007

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doug

Keep up the posts. The world definitely needs another economist blogging!

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I have to disagree with this.

1) If you look at the level of GDP growth, Argentina was playing catch up until Q4 05. After that it continued to grow, but at the cost of higher inflation

2) The governments response to the inflation problem has been to employ strict price controls and export constraints. The latter is being done in conjunction with keeping the currency undervalued to stimulate exports (yes, I know).

3) When inflation started showing signs of rising despite the price controls, the government resorted to outright data manipulation. This charge caused protests by workers at INDEC (the countries statistics agency).

4) So the key question is what will happen to growth in the future when the fiscal stimulus wears off. My bet is that they grow, but they won't be growing at Asian level rates.

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I agree with the last post. Here from Chile, we can see and feel the efects of the price control and the export constraint. Chile import from Argentina two important products, meat and Natural gas, and in both, we have seen how the goverment has cut the export of those products to our country.

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Of course, our dearest friends from Chile are themselves helping such restrictions, imposing trade duties to argentinean milk and wheat!

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